Pros and Cons: Should Mets trade for Corbin Burnes?

The Mets almost certainly need to acquire at least two quality starting pitchers to have legitimate championship aspirations in 2024. And if they land their top target, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, they’ll need more depth that would provide extra rest for him and Kodai Senga for a potential six-man rotation, which is customary in Japan.

Yet it’s hard to see them making two big-splash free agent deals for starters, especially if they do get Yamamoto for something in the $200 million range, considering how much Steve Cohen is paying for Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander to pitch elsewhere next year.

So then what?

Well, the obvious answer is that we’ll find out quickly how creative David Stearns will be as the new president of baseball operations. And perhaps how bold.

Would he dip into what appears to be a surplus of position-player prospects to trade for an accomplished starter?

If so you’d have to think Corbin Burnes would be at the top of his wish list, partly because Stearns oversaw the righthander’s ascension to ace-like status with the Milwaukee Brewers, and partly because there is much speculation the 2021 NL Cy Young Award winner will be available.

Burnes is a year away from free agency and the small-market Brewers aren’t going to be able to match the offers he’ll get elsewhere. Meanwhile, with fellow frontline starter Brandon Woodruff expected to miss most or all of next season due to shoulder surgery, there may not be much appeal for Milwaukee to keep Burnes and take one last shot at a championship.

“I’d be surprised if they don’t trade him,” one NL team exec told me. “He’s got a lot of value in a market where so many teams are looking for elite starting pitching.”

So let’s explore the pros and cons of making a trade for Burnes.

PROS

He just turned 29 a month ago so Burnes should be very much in his prime in 2024, and though his numbers were down a bit last year from his Cy Young season, scouts still consider him one of the top starters in the majors.

“He didn’t command his cutter quite as well as he did in ’21 and he’s given up his share of home runs (the last two years) as a result,” said one scout. “But it’s still a pitch he dominates hitters with as his primary weapon, and he’s got good secondary stuff. He’s a bulldog too. He’s a legit front-of-the-rotation guy.”

For the ’23 season, Burnes went 10-8 with a 3.39 ERA, making 32 starts and pitching 193 innings. He gave up only 141 hits but his walks were up significantly, at 66, and he gave up 22 home runs. He racked up 200 strikeouts and his hard-hit rate was in the 89th percentile among all pitchers last year, an indication of dominance.

Yet the numbers do pale in comparison to his Cy Young season when he pitched to a 2.43 ERA and allowed only seven home runs in 167 innings while totaling 234 strikeouts, adding up to a monster ERA-plus number of 170 (compared to 127 last season).

“It’s fair to ask if (2021) was a career year for him,” said another scout. “But even if he doesn’t get back to that level he’s still an elite starter. He’ll be in demand if the Brewers do look to trade him.”

CONS

There’s really only one con, and that’s the price the Mets might have to pay in prospects to trade for him. Theoretically, it should be a reduced cost since Burnes is only a season away from free agency, but as the scout noted, the demand could force teams to raise the ante in terms of a return.

Already there have been reports that several teams, among them the Los Angeles Dodgers and the prospect-rich Baltimore Orioles, have strong interest in making a deal with the Brewers.

“The problem for the Mets could be that the Brewers are probably going to want young pitching in return,” said a rival team exec. “The Dodgers have an edge there because they have attractive young pitching to trade from their system, where the Mets really don’t.”

In that case, the Mets might have to overpay in position-player prospects to make a deal, and perhaps give up at least one from the top of their prospect list as part of a package. If that means parting with someone like Luisangel Acuna or Drew Gilbert, it makes for a difficult call.

VERDICT

Much depends on how committed the Mets are to competing for a championship in 2024, something that remains a bit of a mystery after their sell-off at last summer’s trading deadline.

Perhaps more to the point, it could depend on whether they sign Yamamoto. If so it would make a trade for Burnes that much more impactful, potentially giving the Mets a Big Three of Yamamoto, Burnes, and Senga at the top of the rotation.

In that case, they should swallow hard and give up the necessary prospects, especially since they have enough duplication to know there won’t be room for all of them in Queens. After all, Burnes could be a difference-maker.