Mets 2025 MLB season preview and prediction, including playoff fate

The Mets enter the 2025 MLB season not only as playoff contenders, but as a team that is viewed as one of the very best in baseball.

It's been a huge leap over the last year for a franchise that began the 2024 campaign with legitimate hope that they were turning things around, but not much in the way of postseason expectations.

In last season's version of this story, I predicted that the Mets would win 86 games (they exceeded that mark by three wins) and nab the third Wild Card spot in the National League (which they did).

But even the most optimistic prognosticators had to be surprised at how far the 2024 Mets went, as they caught fire in the second half of the season, rode an incredible wave into the playoffs, took out the Brewers in the Wild Card Series on the back of the most dramatic home run in franchise history, ousted the Phillies in four games in the NLDS, and ultimately fell to the eventual World Series champion Dodgers in six games in the NLCS.

Because of the way the Mets finished last season, and the pixie dust that seemed to be sprinkled on them as they made their remarkable run, it had to be tempting for David Stearns and Co. to keep much of that group together.

But while the Mets re-signed some of the players whose contributions were huge last season (including Pete Alonso, Sean Manaea, and Jesse Winker), others are now playing elsewhere (Luis Severino, Jose Iglesias, Jose Quintana).

Of course, the biggest move the Mets made this past offseason also happened to be the most seismic one they've ever made: the signing of Juan Soto.

Along with Soto and a big chunk of players who were part of the 2024 squad, a new cast of characters including Clay Holmes, A.J. Minter, and Jose Siri will try to help New York not only get back to the playoffs, but be the last team standing at its conclusion.

Without further ado, here is our preview and prediction for the 2025 season...

What the Mets have going for them

After scoring the sixth-most runs in baseball last season, the Mets will return the bulk of that lineup while also adding Soto -- who had a .178 OPS+ last year while smacking a career-high 41 homers, driving in 109, and scoring a career-best 128 runs.

To say that the top of New York's lineup with Francisco Lindor at No. 1 and Soto at No. 2 is dynamic would be an understatement. But it doesn't stop there.

A returning Alonso (who will be looking to cash in after the season) along with Mark Vientos and Brandon Nimmo should provide serious punch in the middle of the lineup. Meanwhile, Winker and Starling Marte (who could split DH duties) and Jose Siri add pop to the lower half.

Two X-factors for the offense could be Francisco Alvarez (who is out until the end of April or a bit longer) and Brett Baty (who will begin the year as the regular second baseman in Jeff McNeil's absence).

The Mets should also have a very strong bullpen, which is a big step up from where they started last season. Anchored by Edwin Diaz, there are a plethora of arms that not only possess big-time stuff but the ability to pitch in the late innings.

That list includes Minter, Ryne Stanek, Reed Garrett, and Dedniel Núñez (who should be ready to contribute soon). And if high-upside, multi-inning options Jose Butto and Max Kranick excel, New York's bullpen could be elite.

The biggest question mark is the rotation, which will be led by Clay Holmes, Kodai Senga, and David Peterson early as Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas work their way back from injuries.

But while the starting staff will have a lot of pressure on it until Manaea returns (perhaps at the end of April) and Montas is back (in May or June), the strength the Mets possess elsewhere should allow them to persevere through any potential early hiccups in the rotation.

Even though most of the focus is rightfully on the players who broke camp on the big league club, it's impossible to ignore the fact that a handful of truly impact prospects could contribute in a big way this season -- potentially as early as the first half.

Names to watch there are right-handed pitchers Brandon Sproat, Nolan McLean, and Blade Tidwell, infielder Ronny Mauricio, and outfielder Drew Gilbert.

There's also a chance infielder/center fielder Jett Williams debuts in 2025.

The Mets will make the playoffs if...

If they stay relatively healthy and the starting rotation is at least average, the Mets should find themselves in October.

And if the rotation excels and/or gets a jolt by Sproat and/or McLean, New York could be headed for its first NL East title since 2015.

Something else to note here is that if serious reinforcements are needed around the trade deadline, Stearns and the front office are now in a spot where they'll likely be more than willing to part with some serious prospect capital in order to acquire it -- whether that's an impact starting pitcher or something else.

Most of these Mets can also draw on the experience of last year's battle for the playoffs and ensuing run, so they should be well-equipped to handle a tight race.

Also a plus is the steady Carlos Mendoza, who had the same demeanor, guiding hand, and communication skills for every day of last season in what was his first year as manager -- from 0-5 to Game 6 in Los Angeles.

The Mets will miss the playoffs if...

For every team, there's always a chance that injuries could derail a season. For a team as deep as the Mets, though, it would take a rash of lengthy injuries to top contributors in the lineup and the pitching staff.

If not injuries, the Mets could also be doomed by how ridiculously deep the National League is -- especially compared to the relatively weak American League.

For someone ranking the 10 best teams in baseball, it wouldn't be crazy to list seven NL teams (the Mets, Braves, Phillies, Dodgers, Padres, Diamondbacks, and Cubs) among them. It's also possible the Brewers are formidable again and the Reds take a step forward, which would set up a serious battle for the six playoff spots.

It is not impossible to envision a scenario where the Mets win 90 games and miss the playoffs, though it should be pointed out that every team that has won 90 games or more since the third Wild Card in each league was added has made the postseason.

Final record and playoff prediction

94-68
Second place in NL East
First Wild Card spot

The Mets will come close to winning the division, but the Braves will eke that out, leaving New York as the top Wild Card team.

New York will oust the Phillies in the Wild Card Series and take out the loaded Dodgers in the NLDS.

But the Mets' season will again end one step shy of the World Series, as they will fall to the Braves in the NLCS.