Stay or Go: Should Mets re-sign Chris Bassitt?

For large portions of the 2022 season, Chris Bassitt was the Mets' most important starting pitcher.

Without Jacob deGrom for the entire first half of the season and without Max Scherzer for about one third of it, Bassitt was a stabilizing force at the top of the rotation.

And barring something truly strange happening, Bassitt is about to hit free agency -- along with deGrom and Taijuan Walker. The Mets hold a $14 million player option on another 2022 rotation mainstay, Carlos Carrasco.

Bassitt, whom the Mets acquired from the Oakland Athletics before last season, avoided arbitration before Opening Day, with the two sides adding a mutual $19 million option for the 2023 season.

Had Bassitt struggled in 2022 or suffered a significant injury, he would've likely exercised his side of the option. But there is close to zero chance he will exercise it now, which will result in him hitting the free agent market, where he'll likely be seeking a multiyear deal around the same average annual value as his option would've paid him.

With so much of the rotation in flux -- there are questions surrounding literally everyone but Scherzer -- the Mets are going to have quite the balancing act on their hands.

At the forefront of that balancing act will be deGrom, whose desires are unknown and who could cost the Mets roughly $44 million annually if he's back. And with Scherzer under contract through at least 2023 at $43.3 million, it's fair to wonder how much more the Mets might dedicate to their rotation if deGrom returns.

If deGrom goes, all bets could be off -- not only when it comes to where the Mets allocate their money as they rebuild the rotation, but regarding which star offensive players they could go after via free agency and trade.

So, should the Mets look to keep Bassitt or let him go?

WHY IT COULD MAKE SENSE TO LET BASSITT GO

Bassitt is entering his age-34 season and is coming off the only season of his eight-year career where he exceeded 158 innings.

Granted, Bassitt has been pretty durable since 2019, but it's fair to wonder how he might respond in 2023 coming off the biggest workload of his career. He tossed 63.0 innings during the shortened season in 2020, followed by a big jump to 157.1 in 2021, and a career-high 181.2 in 2022.

A look at Bassitt's advanced numbers should also give the Mets and other interested teams at least some pause.

There was a precipitous decline in Bassitt's chase rate in 2022. After he was in the 43rd percentile in 2021 (and 31st percentile in 2020), he dropped all the way to the 10th percentile in 2022 -- which could help explain his strikeout rate dipping from 9.1 per 9 in 2021 to 8.3 per 9 in 2022. There were also some other small dips for Bassitt in 2022 compared to 2021, including his whiff rate, fastball velocity, and the spin on his curve.

However, the above metrics have never been a big part of his game, and -- aside from the huge drop in chase rate -- none of these should be a big concern. And when examining Bassitt's advanced numbers, most of the key ones remained well above average.

In 2022, Bassitt was among the best pitchers in baseball when it came to limiting hard contact. He was in the 95th percentile in average exit velocity allowed, and 87th percentile in hard hit percentage. And he was above average with regards to xBA, xSLG, barrel percentage, and walk rate.

The above numbers were similar to the ones Bassitt produced for the A's in 2021, when he was in the 76th percentile in average exit velocity allowed and 88th percentile when it came to hard hit percentage.

Bassitt's walk rate ticked up slightly in 2022, when it was 2.4 per 9 compared to 2.2 per 9 in 2021, but he remained well above average there as well.

If the Mets believe Bassitt can be relied on as a solid middle of the rotation starter who can sometimes perform like a No. 2, the main concern here would be how signing him might impact the rest of their free agent pursuits -- especially in the rotation.

For example, if deGrom is back, he and Scherzer could combine to make roughly $90 million in 2023. Would the Mets add another $20 million or so in Bassitt? If so, would that mean not picking up Carrasco's $14 million option?

We also need to discuss the elephant in the room, which is how Bassitt performed in quite literally the Mets' two most important games of the year -- during the third game of their division-deciding series in Atlanta against the Braves, and in Game 3 of the Wild Card Series against the San Diego Padres.

In both of those games, Bassitt looked nothing like the rock-solid pitcher he had been for most of the season. He was not only ineffective, but was seemingly rattled. And the fact that he said he might have not been ready for the moment in Atlanta right before failing in a big way against the Padres leaves a pretty sour taste.

WHY IT COULD MAKE SENSE TO KEEP BASSITT

Paradoxically, one of the reasons it could make sense for the Mets to move on from Bassitt is also one of the reasons it could make sense to bring him back. And that is the amount of flux the starting rotation is in.

The only certainty in the Mets' rotation heading into 2023 is Scherzer. And while David Peterson and/or Tylor Megill can be options in the back end of the rotation, they are not sure things.

If deGrom leaves, bringing back Bassitt could become even more important -- especially if the Mets don't replace deGrom with a high-upside free agent starter like Justin Verlander or Carlos Rodon.

The price to keep Bassitt -- in terms of years and dollars -- should also be palatable, especially in a world where deGrom's money isn't on the books.

Entering his age-34 season, it's hard to see any team exceeding four guaranteed years for Bassitt. Maybe he only gets three guaranteed. And for a pitcher with Bassitt's upside, who has been a very good performer in recent seasons, three years and $60 million or so or four years around $80 million is not a lot.

There's also the fact that Bassitt can be one of the most reliable pitchers in baseball when he's on, in terms of run-prevention and the length he provides.

One example is how Bassitt performed during a nine-start stretch from June 14 to Aug. 8, when he had a 2.19 ERA (2.85 FIP) over 61.2 innings while pitching seven innings or more five times and pitching into at least the sixth inning all nine times. 

Overall, Bassitt pitched into the seventh inning or beyond nine times during the 2022 regular season. To put that into perspective, Scherzer did it eight times. DeGrom, who was ramping back up after not pitching in the majors for over a year, pitched into the seventh just twice in 11 starts. 

Bassitt also spoke toward the end of the season about how he proved to himself that he could handle the heat that comes with pitching in New York. So he's clearly not intimidated by his surroundings. 

Back to Bassitt's ability to pitch deep into games...

In an era of baseball that is more reliant on deep bullpens than ever, and where even some very good pitchers are often held back from facing a lineup more than twice, having someone like Bassitt who can provide length is incredibly valuable.

During the regular season, Bassitt's ability to pitch deep is a big help over a 162-game gauntlet. And assuming his poor start against the Padres in the Wild Card Series was a blip, Bassitt could be a serious playoff weapon going forward.

VERDICT

It's not impossible for the Mets to keep all of their most important free agents, but it's unlikely. Even though owner Steve Cohen can afford to pay everyone, he shouldn't -- and won't. That's not how sustainable winners are built.

But Bassitt, along with Edwin Diaz and Brandon Nimmo, should be near the top of the list when it comes to free agents the Mets want to retain.

If deGrom leaves, the Mets should be all over a potential Bassitt reunion -- though the timing of the deGrom negotiations could make that tricky. 

If deGrom stays, and the Mets are left with a choice of Bassitt or Carrasco, the easy pick to me is Bassitt -- even though it would require multiple guaranteed years to bring him back.