Analyzing the Mets' payroll situation for 2023 and beyond

The Mets came very close to exceeding the new top luxury tax threshold of $290 million during the 2022 season, with their payroll winding up just shy of $288 million.

Under new owner Steve Cohen, who now has two full years under his belt, the Mets are attempting to win a World Series within a three-to-five year window, which is Cohen's hope. And they're about to enter year three of that window.

In order to achieve that goal -- and Cohen's desire to build a sustainable winner that is kind of an East Coast version of the Los Angeles Dodgers -- the Mets were always going to spend a lot via free agency over the first handful of years of the Cohen regime as they rebuilt the farm system and developed the cost-controlled players they hope it produces.

The Mets spent a lot via free agency last offseason, including the massive signing of Max Scherzer and the signings of Starling Marte, Eduardo Escobar, and Mark Canha.

In the prior offseason, their main move was trading for and extending Francisco Lindor for $341 million.

Now, the Mets have a payroll that is top-heavy, but some of those deals (Scherzer after 2023 or 2024, Jacob deGrom perhaps as soon as this offseason) are about to come off the books right around the time some of New York's top prospects are ready to make an impact and lessen the team's reliance on the free agent market.

But the Mets will still be huge spenders in free agency this offseason, and will almost certainly have a payroll that is significantly higher than it was in 2022 -- and one that will probably not only exceed the top threshold, but go well above it.

Let's break down the payroll situation for 2023 and beyond...

SALARY ALREADY COMMITTED FOR 2023

Per Cot's Baseball Contracts, the Mets have roughly $205 million committed to the payroll for 2023, which includes player benefits, the money owed to 40-man players in the minors, and other things that are factored in for luxury tax purposes.

The above includes the money that would be owed to deGrom should he opt in to the final two years of his contract, which we know he is not going to do.

It also includes the $19 million owed to Chris Bassitt if he triggers his side of the mutual option, which he is not expected to do, and the $6 million owed to Taijuan Walker (who will not be opting in).

So while the number right now is around $205 million, it's really a good deal lower. But that's before factoring in what the Mets' arbitration-eligible players are expected to make. And that will drive the payroll up significantly (more on that below).

Of the big deals on the books, we know Scherzer's $43.3 million will be there, along with the $32.5 million owed to Lindor, $20 million owed to Starling Marte, and the relatively big number that Pete Alonso will get via arbitration.

There are tons of moving parts here for two big reasons. 

The first are the player options many of the Mets' key free agents hold and how those players being off the books could impact things. There's also the $14 million team option the Mets hold on Carlos Carrasco.

The second and most important is the deGrom situation, which will be examined at length in a bit. 

WHAT ARE THE ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS PROJECTED TO MAKE?

The Mets have seven arbitration-eligible players not counting Daniel Vogelbach, whom the team can bypass arbitration with by exercising a $1.5 million club option.

Those players are Alonso, Jeff McNeil, Luis Guillorme, Drew Smith, Tomas Nido, Dominic Smith, and Joey Lucchesi.

Per MLB Trade Rumors, here's what those players are projected to make:

Alonso: $15.9M
McNeil: $6.2M
Guillorme: $1.5M
Drew Smith: $1.2M
Nido: $1.6M
Dominic Smith: $4M
Lucchesi: $1.15M

We know Alonso, McNeil, Guillorme, Nido, and Drew Smith will all be offered arbitration. And it's a safe bet the Mets will also offer it to Lucchesi. So you can add roughly $27 million to the payroll.

As far as Dominic Smith, it's fair to believe he'll either be non-tendered or traded. So the Mets very likely won't be on the hook for that $4 million.

THE POTENTIAL QUALIFYING OFFER IMPACT

The qualifying offer for 2023 will be $19.65 million, and the Mets have four players they will definitely extend it to if they're not re-signed before the QO deadline.

Those players are deGrom, Bassitt, Edwin Diaz, and Brandon Nimmo.

Barring something truly strange happening, there is close to a zero percent chance any of those players would even consider accepting the QO, let alone actually take it.

So by offering these players the QO, the Mets would just be ensuring that they receive draft pick compensation should any/all of them leave.

THE JACOB DEGROM SITUATION

What happens with deGrom will have a massive impact not just on what the Mets do this offseason, but how their team looks in the coming years.

If the Mets re-sign deGrom, who will likely be seeking $44 million or more annually, their payroll will become even more top-heavy for the next few seasons. That means bringing deGrom back could possibly be their biggest move of the offseason.

If the Mets don't re-sign deGrom, they will in effect have an additional $44 million or more annually to work with for 2023, 2024, and perhaps 2025. That's because it's hard to see deGrom taking anything less than two guaranteed years, and he'll probably be shooting for three or more.

With the Mets' entire rotation outside of Scherzer in flux, it could be argued that bringing deGrom back is prudent.

But when you take into account the uncertainty still surrounding deGrom's health and longevity -- and the potential avenues the Mets could explore should deGrom leave -- there's also a strong case to be made for moving on.

HOW MUCH MONEY IS THERE TO ADD PLAYERS THIS OFFSEASON?

In this section, we'll discuss the Mets' own free agents and the players they could go after via free agency and trade.

And when it comes to how much money they'll have to add players, the answer will be the same as it was last offseason -- a lot.

The expectation should be that the Mets will not only exceed the top luxury tax threshold of $290 million (which comes with the associated penalties) but blow past it. Does that mean a payroll of $315 million? $325 million? More?

The idea here is that with a top-heavy payroll, so many of their own key free agents to negotiate with, help needed from outside the organization, but top prospects like Francisco Alvarez and Brett Baty ready to make an impact, the Mets will likely have to go well past the highest tax level this year but could get back below it in 2024 or 2025.

Of their own free agents, deGrom heads the list, but Diaz should arguably be their top priority. And it seems very likely he'll be back, potentially on a deal that pays him $20 million or so annually for four or five seasons.

Then there's Nimmo, who is represented by Scott Boras, and Bassitt, who was one of the most reliable pitchers in baseball in 2022 -- and whose importance to the 2023 Mets could grow if deGrom departs.

On the free agent market will be top-of-the-rotation pitchers like Justin Verlander and Carlos Rodon, and offensive difference-makers like Aaron Judge, Trea Turner, and Carlos Correa.

On the trade front could be Shohei Ohtani, who has just one year left before free agency. Will the Los Angeles Angels look to deal him if they get the sense he won't sign there long-term?

WHAT ABOUT EXTENSIONS FOR UNDER-CONTROL PLAYERS?

The list right now of players the Mets should look to extend is pretty small.

Basically, it's Alonso and McNeil, who are both set to hit free agency after the 2024 season.

And this offseason is probably the best time to get a deal done with them. If they go into 2024 without new deals in place, Alonso and McNeil might simply want to bet on themselves and hit the open market after that season.

In the event Alvarez and/or Baty look like stars in the first half of the 2023 season, the Mets could also look to explore extensions with one or both of them, employing the same strategy the Atlanta Braves have used lately with their young players.

THE PAYROLL SITUATION IN 2024 AND BEYOND

Some of this will be heavily dependent on what happens with deGrom, but even if deGrom is back, the Mets should be getting some serious payroll relief after 2023, and a lot more after 2024.

As things currently stand, the Mets have $127.7 million committed to the payroll for 2024. That number plummets to $74.7 million in 2025 and $55.7 million in 2026.

The relief after 2023 will come in the form of Robinson Cano's $20 million coming off the books. Eduardo Escobar and Mark Canha's deals are also up after 2023. 

The relief after 2024 will come in the form of the end of Scherzer's annual deal that pays him $43.3 million (if he doesn't opt out after 2023).

As is noted above, the Mets should also soon be getting big contributions from some of their prospects who will be making near the league minimum. And even if the Mets quickly extend some of those guys, their salaries will not be anywhere near what established stars make.

Alvarez and Baty could be impact players in New York in 2023, and prospects like Ronny Mauricio and Mark Vientos could also be contributors. In 2024, outfield prospect Alex Ramirez could be on the radar, as could the recently-drafted Kevin Parada if he is fast-tracked. 

A big key for the Mets over the next few seasons will be the development of their starting pitching prospects, including Matt Allan, Calvin Ziegler, and Blade Tidwell. If some of them are ready to contribute in 2024 or 2025, it will seriously ease the Mets' reliance on the free agent market to build their rotation.

If all goes well, the Mets' plan of having a sustainable winner that only dabbles in the top end of the free agent market when needed -- while relying heavily on a player development system that churns out MLB regulars and stars -- will soon be close to a reality.