Mets figuring out starting pitching situation will be biggest offseason challenge

The Mets have key free agents all over the roster, including most of the bullpen (with Edwin Diaz obviously the biggest one) and among their position players (with Brandon Nimmo the biggest one there). But the main area of uncertainty heading into the offseason is the starting rotation.

And that's putting it lightly.

Want to see the Mets' current starting rotation for 2023?

1. Max Scherzer

That's it.

The Mets' free agent starting pitchers are headlined by Jacob deGrom (who will be opting out of the final two years of his contract), Chris Bassitt (who is all but certain to decline his player option), Taijuan Walker (who will be declining his player option), and Carlos Carrasco (whom the Mets hold a $14 million team option on).

That is 80 percent of the starting rotation.

Both Tylor Megill and David Peterson are under team control for next season and well beyond, though, so the Mets have some solid options for the back end of the rotation in 2023. 

But a team with hopes of contending for a World Series title cannot have both Megill and Peterson pegged in as rotation members next season. 

And with none of the Mets' top pitching prospects close to the majors, that means they'll have to fill at least three starting rotation spots this offseason.

Of course, some of those could be filled by returning free agents, with deGrom being by far the biggest domino.

The Jacob deGrom situation

In a world where the Mets retain deGrom, this whole thing will get a lot easier to deal with.

DeGrom would again be paired with Scherzer atop the rotation (hopefully for an entire season this time, or close to it), giving the Mets a two-headed monster to help them navigate the 162-game regular season and putting them in strong position for a deep run should they reach the playoffs.

If deGrom leaves, it would free up roughly $44 million in payroll to dedicate elsewhere -- since that's the annual figure deGrom is likely to seek -- but it would mean the Mets would have to find another top of the rotation starter to replace him.

It should also be noted that bringing deGrom back at what would probably be a record average annual value and pairing him with Scherzer again is incredibly risky.

DeGrom and Scherzer could both dominate (Scherzer had the best ERA of his career in 2022 before struggling in his lone postseason start) and help carry the Mets through not only another great regular season, but to a World Series title.

But one or both of them could also break down, which would make things pretty perilous.

The Mets' other internal free agent starters

Walker regressed in the second half of the season, pitching to a 4.80 ERA in 13 starts. It wasn't nearly as bad as his 2021 regression, but it seems like a pretty easy call to move on.

Carrasco's second half was solid, with him pitching to a 3.40 ERA over 11 starts. But two non-competitive starts in September (one against the Washington Nationals on Sept. 4 and one against the Miami Marlins on Sept. 27) hurt badly as the Mets were trying to hang on in the NL East.

Fourteen million dollars isn't much for a starting pitcher who can give you an ERA under 4.00 and eat innings, but the Mets should probably be aiming for more upside than Carrasco can provide.

The toughest call here is Bassitt, who was very good in his first season in Queens, including a terrific 11-start stretch from June 14 to Aug. 19 where he had a 2.11 ERA and went seven or more innings five times.

The only real knock on Bassitt is how he pitched in the Mets' do-or-die series against the Braves in late-September and in Game 3 of their Wild Card Series against the San Diego Padres. In those starts, Bassitt looked nothing like the pitcher he had been for most of the season -- and he suggested after the Braves start that he let the moment get the best of him.

The in-house options

Megill looked like an emerging star early this season, with a 1.93 ERA over his first five starts (28 innings) as he helped offset the loss of deGrom. But injuries limited him to just four starts for the rest of the year, with his last coming on June 16.

When he returned on Sept. 16, he did so as a reliever.

Megill will again be a starter in 2023, but it's hard to know what to expect.

Then there's Peterson, who had a 3.86 ERA in 19 starts over 91 innings in 2022, but whose season ended with him in the bullpen, where he had a 3.68 ERA over nine appearances. Is that where his future is? Or will be again be asked to start?

As noted above, the Mets might pencil in Megill or Peterson for the No. 5 slot. But it's impossible to see (or agree with) them relying on both of them in the rotation.

The free agent market

The most intriguing names are Justin Verlander and Carlos Rodon, who are both expected to exercise their opt-outs and become free agents.

Verlander is about to win the Cy Young at age 39. Would he be a better bet at one or two years than deGrom at two or three?

Rodon is coming off a great year with the San Francisco Giants and is entering his age-30 season. But his track record of success is short. Is he worth the gamble?

Then there's Clayton Kershaw, who was also great in 2022. But he's been dealing with injury issues pretty consistently in recent seasons (including to his back). It's also hard to see him leaving the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Mike Clevinger and Sonny Gray could be solid additions, but Clevinger struggled a bit in his first year back from Tommy John surgery and Gray has pitched more than 135 innings just once since 2017.

Potential trades

The huge name here could be Shohei Ohtani, if the Los Angeles Angels come to the realization that he'll likely be walking after the 2023 season.

But while the Mets likely have the prospects it would take to get Ohtani, they've been reluctant to deal them. Would that change if a generational talent like Ohtani became available?

It's not clear yet who else might hit the trade market, but the same thought process applies. The Mets, who are trying to build a sustainable winner using their farm system as a talent base, might be better off filling in their rotation via free agency than trade.