Mets' 5 biggest 2022-23 offseason storylines to watch

There will be plenty of work for the Mets to do as they embark on an offseason that could be a momentous one.

The 2022-23 offseason follows a regular season where the Mets won the second-most games in franchise history, but was capped by frittering away the NL East title late and a playoff appearance that was brief and shockingly non-competitive in two of the three games.

A lot of the offensive core should be back.

The manager will be back.

The GM will be back.

But there will be lots of changes elsewhere, including the starting rotation and possibly the top of the organizational chart, with the Mets in search for a new team president to replace the outgoing Sandy Alderson.

Here are the five biggest storylines to watch this offseason...

How many internal free agents will be back?

There will be no shortage of storylines to follow this offseason, and there is no shortage of Mets free agents.

Highlighting the group are Jacob deGrom, Edwin Diaz, and Brandon Nimmo. In the tier below those three is Chris Bassitt. A tier below Bassitt are Seth Lugo, Adam Ottavino, and Trevor May.

Taijuan Walker will also be a free agent if he declines his $6 million player option as expected, and Carlos Carrasco will be a free agent if the Mets decline their $14 million team option on him.

It has seemed for a while that Diaz will be back, and SNY's Andy Martino recently reported that a return for Diaz is looking likely, adding that Nimmo could be back and that the situation with deGrom remains a mystery -- though the Mets will try to retain him.

In a world where the Mets re-sign Diaz, Nimmo, and deGrom, it would likely cost them around $85 million annually. And that would be a large chunk of their offseason budget.

In a world where the Mets re-sign Diaz and Nimmo but deGrom walks, it could open up a world of possibilities for them on the free agent and trade markets.

If there is ever a year for owner Steve Cohen to blow past the highest tier of the luxury tax threshold, it's this one, with the Mets still very much in win-now mode, Max Scherzer's contract off the books in two years, and an influx of young talent from the minors that should give the Mets some very inexpensive but very productive players soon.

That brings us to...

Is a big external signing or trade coming?

Maybe.

The eyes of the baseball world will be on the Los Angeles Angels this offseason, since they're about to be sold and have control of two-way megastar Shohei Ohtani for just one more season.

It sure doesn't seem like Ohtani is destined to be with the Angels beyond 2023, though if new ownership is in place sooner rather than later, perhaps they make an effort to lock him up.

But the Angels haven't finished above .500 since 2015, Mike Trout's health is a concern, and it's fair to believe Ohtani -- entering his age-28 season -- wants to play for a team with a chance to win a World Series.

If the Mets don't sign deGrom and get the sense that Ohtani would sign with them long-term, it would be awfully tempting for them to take a big swing.

The Mets -- and any other team -- could simply wait until Ohtani hopefully hits free agency. But this feels like a situation where he might get traded and sign an immediate extension with the team that acquires him. We'll see.

If not Ohtani, there will be plenty of big names on the free agent market.

That list will be headlined by Aaron Judge, whom the Yankees want to retain. But if they don't, all bets are obviously off.

Beyond Judge are plenty of other superstars, including Trea Turner. There's also Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts, and Nolan Arenado (who all have opt-outs), while the free agent starting pitchers could include Carlos Rodon and Justin Verlander (who both have opt-outs).

What will the payroll look like?

As noted above, the perfect storm could be brewing for the Mets to exceed the highest luxury tax threshold of $290 million, with the idea being to get back under the threshold in a year or two.

The Mets' CBT 40-man payroll this season was just shy of $288 million, and they already have $185 million committed to the payroll for 2023. But that includes deGrom's money, which might not be there.

However, that figure doesn't include raises for arbitration-eligible players, which could total around $30 million.

Either way, the Mets figure to be heavily involved at the top end of the free agent market for their own free agents and external ones. And as we touched on earlier, deGrom not being back could open the door to lots of different and exciting possibilities.

The guess here is that the Mets will exceed the top luxury tax threshold not just by a little, but by a solid amount. Does that mean $310 million? $320 million? We'll just have to wait and see.

Which players should be approached about extensions?

Pete Alonso and Jeff McNeil. That's the list for now.

Alonso, who is entering his age-28 season, is set to make about $16 million in 2023 via arbitration and hit free agency after the 2024 season.

McNeil, who will be entering his age-31 season, is set to make about $6 million in 2023 via arbitration and hit free agency after 2024.

As far as Alonso, in just three full seasons in the majors he has already become the only Mets player ever to hit 40 or more home runs twice. And he is not just a power guy. His approach at the plate is getting more refined, and he shortens up when necessary. He's also becoming a leader in the clubhouse.

If the Mets don't extend Alonso now, they might miss their chance.

When it comes to McNeil, he is simply one of the best pure hitters in the game. And he's a versatile and solid fielder. His all-fields approach that doesn't rely on power shouldn't regress much as he ages, so he's a solid bet to keep performing at a high level for a while.

One complication is that if the Mets extend Alonso and/or McNeil, it will increase the payroll even more -- that's because the luxury tax for payroll purposes is calculated using the average annual value of contracts. In other words, the Mets can't backload the deals to get around the tax in coming seasons. 

But the Mets need to approach both Alonso and McNeil now.

How will the search for a new team president go?

With Alderson stepping down to become an advisor to Cohen, the Mets are looking for a new team president.

However, Martino recently reported that the team does not expect to engage in that search this fall. That means they might not have an Alderson replacement until January or February, leaving GM Billy Eppler to run things during the offseason.

And even if the Mets' search for new team president ramps up and is completed faster than expected, the current belief is that he or she will be more business-oriented than baseball-oriented.

If that changes, Milwaukee Brewers executive David Stearns' name would surely come up. But he is still under contract for another year.

Perhaps the Mets hire a business-oriented president this offseason and hire Stearns next offseason. Or maybe Eppler gets promoted.

But no matter what, it seems unlikely that this search will have much of an impact on what the Mets do player-wise this offseason.