Stay or Go: Should Mets re-sign Brandon Nimmo?

When the Mets selected outfielder Brandon Nimmo with the No. 13 pick in the 2011 MLB Draft out of Wyoming, their choice turned some heads.

Since there was no high school baseball in Wyoming, Nimmo played American Legion Baseball, where the Mets scouted him heavily. And there were lots who questioned the Mets' selection of Nimmo, wondering if they had taken him too high.

Fast forward 11 years and Nimmo is one of the longest-tenured Mets, is represented by high-powered agent Scott Boras, is one of the most valuable players in baseball, and is about to hit free agency for the first time in his career as he prepares to enter his age-30 season.

Along with Jacob deGrom and Edwin Diaz, Nimmo is one of the Mets' three most important internal free agents. 

The decision the Mets are facing with deGrom is difficult and multifaceted. 

The decision the Mets are facing with Diaz should be very easy.

The decision the Mets are facing with Nimmo falls somewhere in the middle.

With Boras as his agent, Nimmo will be looking to cash in. But the Mets have a good working relationship with Boras, who counts Max Scherzer among his many clients. So if a fair deal can be worked out for both sides, this shouldn't be too painful.

Nimmo has also expressed a desire to return, and fits the culture the Mets are trying to create under owner Steve Cohen and the top baseball executive team led by Billy Eppler.

So, should the Mets re-sign Nimmo or let him go?

WHY IT COULD MAKE SENSE TO LET NIMMO GO

The main concern with Nimmo would be how many years Boras might be seeking for a player entering his 30s.

The comparison here is not perfect, but Boras was able to get a seven-year deal worth $182 million for infielder/outfielder Kris Bryant last offseason ahead of what was his age-30 season -- an average annual value of $26 million per year.

Nimmo is a career .269/.385/.441 hitter over seven seasons, while Bryant was a .278/.376/.504 hitter over his first seven seasons before he hit free agency.

The power potential of Bryant (he has averaged 30 homers and 38 doubles per 162 games compared to Nimmo's 17 homers and 28 doubles per 162) helps set him apart. There's also the fact that Bryant was a former MVP and three-time All-Star before he signed his big deal with the Colorado Rockies.

Since Boras was able to get seven years at $26 million per for Bryant, what might he be seeking for Nimmo?

Maybe something in the five-year range at $20 million or so per season could get it done for Nimmo, which would take him through his age-34 season.

One concern with that length is whether or not Nimmo would be able to stick in center field that long and remain an average or better defender there -- which he has turned himself into with hard work and some positioning adjustments over the last few seasons.

If the Mets think Nimmo has only one or two years remaining in center, it might have a big influence on their offer.

Another thing to consider is the dip Nimmo's OBP took in 2022, when it wound up at a still-elite .367 after being .401 in 2021 and .404 in 2020. But Nimmo's advanced stats suggest that was likely a one-year aberration and not a sign of a regression from a player who provides tons of value with his on-base ability.

WHY IT COULD MAKE SENSE TO KEEP NIMMO

To start things off, Nimmo has been one of the most valuable players in baseball since his first full season in 2018.

In 2022, Nimmo was the 28th-most valuable player in the game via fWAR, just ahead of emerging Seattle Mariners superstar Julio Rodriguez and just behind Alex Bregman of the Houston Astros.

And as is noted above, Nimmo is now a legitimate center fielder, which -- to go along with his on-base ability -- makes him a rare commodity. Guys who can play a plus center field and impact the game offensively are special.

Another thing noted above is how well Nimmo fits with the kind of team the Mets are trying to create, with his attributes including his on-base ability, energy, and hustle. 

There's also the question of who would replace Nimmo if he left. Along with his difference-making offensive profile, Nimmo was in the 91st percentile in 2022 when it came to OAA (Outs Above Average) in center field.

In the immediate, the Mets could conceivably shift Starling Marte to center field, but there was a reason the team decided to slide Marte to right and played Nimmo in center in 2022.

That reason? Marte was worth -3 OAA in the outfield in 2021. Marte would likely be able to hold his own in center in 2023, but he's entering his age-34 season and will be a year removed from playing center regularly. 

Want to sign a different free agent to replace Nimmo? Take a look at the list of pending free agents who can play center. It's not pretty.

And when it comes to a player in the farm system who can replace Nimmo, there isn't one -- at least not for next season.

There's a chance that Alex Ramirez -- the Mets' top outfield prospect and a top-100 talent -- could be ready for his big league debut at some point in 2024, but he has yet to play above High-A ball.

Back to Nimmo...

Beyond his intangibles, the fact that he's a great fit, his plus defense in center, and his elite "regular" offensive stats are Nimmo's advanced stats. And they tell a very nice story.

Nimmo, who is one of the most disciplined hitters in baseball, was well above average last season when it came to chase rate, whiff percentage, walk rate, strikeout rate, xwOBA, xBA, and max exit velocity.

And since he isn't reliant on power, the Mets should have the belief that Nimmo -- like his teammate Jeff McNeil -- should be able to rely on his elite offensive skills into his 30s without much of a drop-off. 

VERDICT

Unless the price for Nimmo in terms of both years and dollars is exorbitant, the Mets should make bringing him back one of their top priorities.

Yes, the team needs to add more power, but that can be addressed without losing Nimmo.

Nimmo is one of the players who helps the Mets go. And they will be much better off in 2023 and beyond if he remains at the top of the lineup.