How should Mets go about rebuilding starting rotation for 2023?

The Mets will have a ton of work to do this offseason when it comes to rebuilding their bullpen, and will likely be very busy adding more power to a returning core of offensive players while deciding whether to bring back pending free agent Brandon Nimmo.

But the Mets' biggest offseason challenge will revolve around the starting rotation, which as of now has only one guaranteed member for 2023.

And much of the uncertainty surrounding the starting rotation has to do with Jacob deGrom, who will be opting out of his contract after the World Series. 

As far as the one guaranteed member of the rotation for 2023, that would of course be Max Scherzer, who will make $43.3 million in the second year of a three-year deal he'll have a chance to opt out of after next season.

Then there's Chris Bassitt (who is all but certain to decline his $19 million option for 2023 that is part of a mutual option with the team), Carlos Carrasco (whom the Mets hold a $14 million option on for next season), and Taijuan Walker (who will be declining his $6 million player option).

Likely back in 2023 will be Tylor Megill (who is under team control through 2027) and David Peterson (who is under team control through 2026), but both pitchers finished the 2022 season in the bullpen.

There's a chance, depending on how many (if any) of their own starting pitching free agents return, that the Mets' rotation will look similar in 2023 to how it looked in 2024.

But there's also a chance that the rotation looks very different, especially near the top.

Let's start with the biggest decision, which could help shape everything...

FIGURE OUT THE JACOB DEGROM SITUATION

There are a few really tough questions the Mets must figure out when it comes to deGrom's future.

The first is whether deGrom even wants to return if the Mets have the best offer, which is something that is not clear.

The second is how long it might take deGrom's market to develop. That is especially crucial for the Mets because of the uncertainty elsewhere in the rotation, and how quickly they might want to strike on another high-end starter (or an effort to bring back Bassitt) if deGrom leaves. 

It is possible the Mets or another team (the Texas Rangers, Atlanta Braves, and Houston Astros are among the teams that could make sense as fits) moves quickly on deGrom, bowl him over, and lock him up at some point in November.

But there's also a chance the deGrom situation could drag out. 

If his goal is to exceed the record average annual value for a pitcher that Scherzer received last year, but his agent finds teams squeamish at that price point, maybe deGrom waits until Justin Verlander and Carlos Rodon ink their deals, which would help set his market.

And if deGrom waits and the Mets aren't sure he'll accept their offer even if they beat everyone else's, they might have to move on with their offseason and potentially leave deGrom behind -- as incredibly difficult as that would be.

IF DEGROM IS BACK

In the event deGrom is re-signed, the Mets will likely be set at the top of the rotation with deGrom and Scherzer. 

And unless deGrom's deal is for one year, which is very hard to see, it's difficult to envision the Mets going after another ace-level starter like Verlander or Rodon -- or pursuing a trade for Shohei Ohtani should the Angels make him available.

That means that deGrom being back should have a trickle down effect that allows the Mets to allocate their biggest dollars elsewhere instead of on a replacement ace -- including the potential re-signings of Edwin Diaz and Nimmo. 

The return of deGrom on a multiyear pact, combined with the other needs the Mets have to address, might also make it less likely that Bassitt is back.

Bassitt could be seeking a deal for three or four years that pays him around $20 million annually. Would the Mets want to have over $100 million tied up in three starting pitchers in their mid-to-late 30s through 2024 and beyond? 

IF DEGROM LEAVES

In the event deGrom isn't back, all bets would be off. And as is noted above, if this happens, the hope from the Mets should be that it happens early in the offseason -- allowing them to go about finding his replacement (and filling in other big holes) while the market is still relatively flush with top talent.

Unless the Mets are comfortable with an ace at the top of the rotation and a bunch of No. 3, No. 4, and No. 5-type starters below him, it would be wise for them to make a strong push for either Verlander or Rodon, or pursue an Ohtani trade. 

DeGrom leaving might also make the pursuit of another big bat to bolster the offense (Aaron Judge, Trea Turner, and Carlos Correa will be among the biggest ones out there) more palatable. 

As far as the ace to replace deGrom, Verlander -- despite his age -- would arguably be the way to go since a one-year deal at a high value might be enough to bring him in. And if the Mets ink Verlander and know his deal will be coming off the books after 2023, attempting to also retain Bassitt would make sense.

Rodon is an interesting target, and he has been absolutely terrific the last two seasons. But he was mediocre before that, and comes with serious injury concerns -- including a shoulder issue that derailed the end of his season in 2021.

In a perfect world, the Mets would ink Verlander and Bassitt. Of course, there's a question of whether Verlander would leave Houston. 

The free agent starting pitching options beyond Verlander and Rodon don't exactly jump off the page. They include Tyler Anderson (who could be looking to cash in at age 32 after his first elite season), Mike Clevinger, Sean Manaea, and Jameson Taillon. 

WHAT ABOUT CARLOS CARRASCO?

The Mets can give themselves what they hope is some rotation certainty by exercising the $14 million option they hold on Carrasco for 2023.

If they do, they'll have two of five rotation spots filled, and could fill one of the others with an in-house option.

If the Mets believe Carrasco will continue to be the guy they got in 2022 -- a back of the rotation starter who will keep them in most games and spin a few gems along the way -- there's an easy case to be made that he's worth bringing back.

But if the Mets think Carrasco's health is in question or that he's about to suffer another regression (after he recently went from being a No. 2 starter to being more of a No. 4), picking up his option becomes a much more complicated decision.

The issue here is that the Mets very likely can't wait to see what happens with deGrom or Bassitt before making a call on Carrasco. 

That's because a decision on Carrasco's option must be made in the five-day window between the end of the World Series and start of free agency. It's close to impossible to see any scenario where deGrom is locked up by the Mets during that window, and it would be a surprise if Bassitt was extended during it. 

DECIDE ON A PLAN FOR TYLOR MEGILL AND DAVID PETERSON

In Megill and Peterson, the Mets have two valuable pitchers whose future roles are unclear.

Did the Mets see enough from Megill during his success in the rotation in April to believe he can thrive as a starter in 2023 and beyond, or would they rather deploy him as a late-inning bullpen weapon?

As far as Peterson, there were some big positives with him in 2022, including a 3.83 ERA and career-high strikeout rate of 10.7 per 9. But there were also some serious negatives, including a walk rate that was 4.1 per 9 and some appearances where he couldn't find the plate -- including a disastrous outing against the Chicago Cubs on Sept. 14 when he gave up five runs in just one third of an inning. 

It seems very possible that one of Megill or Peterson will be in the rotation in 2023, but both of them being relied on to start would be incredibly risky.