How should Mets go about rebuilding bullpen for 2023?

There is no shortage of major questions facing the Mets this offseason.

Most of the attention so far has been spent on the mystery that is the 2023 starting rotation, with only Max Scherzer guaranteed to be back and in the starting five. And the future of Jacob deGrom is not only something that will help shape the Mets' offseason, but how their team will look over the next half decade.

Then there's the offense, which will be returning much of its core but is in dire need of some more punch after a late-season and postseason where it was too hot and cold as it relied way too much on a contact-heavy approach. 

But there's another huge area that is about to undergo a major makeover: the bullpen.

Similar to the uncertainty that's revolving around the starting rotation that is Scherzer and lots of question marks, it's fair to say that the only core member of the Mets' 2022 bullpen who is nearly certain to be back in 2023 is Drew Smith.

Edwin Diaz, Seth Lugo, Adam Ottavino, Trevor May, and Trevor Williams are all set to hit free agency after the World Series. 

And while the Mets' bullpen was maligned at times in 2022, they had the sixth-best ERA in baseball at 3.57. The only teams ahead of them were the Los Angeles Dodgers, Houston Astros, Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays, and Atlanta Braves.

So, how should the Mets go about rebuilding their bullpen for 2023 and beyond, and which of their own free agents should they try to bring back?

Let's start with the top priority...

RE-SIGN EDWIN DIAZ

We've gone into great detail numerous times when it comes to just how amazing Diaz was in 2022 (and how great he's been since 2020), so we won't do it again here. But here's a link to a deep dive on Diaz's future that includes everything that's made him so special.

Any Mets fan knows what Diaz was in 2022 -- the most dominant closer in the sport. And any baseball fan understands the importance of a reliable closer to a team with World Series aspirations

Diaz is entering his age-29 season, and there is strong mutual interest in a return. After the season ended, Diaz said that he wanted to be back and was hoping the Mets would approach him quickly about a new contract.

The Mets will have an exclusive five-day negotiating window with Diaz upon the conclusion of the World Series, and it won't be a surprise if the two sides hammer something out during that span. But even if they don't, it will be a pretty big shock if Diaz isn't back with the Mets one way or another.

EXPLORE REUNIONS WITH THE LATE-INNING GUYS

Lugo, Ottavino, and May are not perfect, but they all have more than enough upside to be key late-inning cogs.

The main concern with Lugo is how rarely he can pitch back-to-back, due in part to the partially torn right UCL that he's been managing for years.

As far as Ottavino, his struggles against left-handers make using him as a setup guy a difficult proposition.

When it comes to May, his stuff is absolutely electric when he's on. But his two years with the Mets have been marred by injuries and pockets of ineffectiveness.

Still, the Mets should have dialogue with all three of them. If one or two can be had on a one-year deal, it would definitely be worth exploring.

ADD ONE LATE-INNING RELIEVER FROM OUTSIDE THE ORGANIZATION

The Mets lacked a true setup man in 2022. And while Smith might be good enough to be that guy, there are still questions surrounding his health and ability to maintain well above average performance for an entire season.

So the Mets should be looking to add one high-end reliever from outside the organization -- preferably via free agency -- to serve as a bridge to (hopefully) Diaz.

Who's out there?

If we're going off the assumption that the Mets aren't going to sign an established closer and ask him to set up, that eliminates Kenley Jansen and Craig Kimbrel. And with the Mets likely spending significant money on their rotation and offensive reinforcements, adding another closer seems unlikely.

Relievers in the next tier include old friend Rafael Montero, who has been setting up for the Astros. But while Montero has been terrific this season, his track record of dominance over a full season is literally just one year.

There is always danger when it comes to adding relievers -- even proven ones. The season-to-season volatility that comes along with them is wild. 

FIND A DIAMOND IN THE ROUGH

Here's where the Mets can do something they haven't done a lot of lately -- find a reliever who's flying under the radar and turn him into a true high-end weapon.

The Astros just did it with Montero, the Yankees did it with Clay Holmes, and the Atlanta Braves did it with Tyler Matzek.

The Mets need to find their version of that. And with a seriously beefed up analytics department, they should be able to bring in a few guys they think can take a serious leap under the umbrella of the analytics staff and on-field staff.

ASSESS THE IN-HOUSE OPTIONS

Along with a (hopefully returning) Diaz, Smith, perhaps one reliever from the free agent group of Lugo/Ottavino/May, one high-end reliever added via free agency or trade, and the under-the-radar guys they bring in, the Mets conceivably be able to build the rest of their bullpen with what they have in-house.

Some of the in-house options are quite interesting, including a number of pitchers already on the 40-man roster.

Among them are Tylor Megill and David Peterson, who both finished the 2022 season in the bullpen.

There's also John Curtiss, whom the Mets signed this past April to a one-year deal with an option for 2023 seven months after he underwent Tommy John surgery. 

Curtiss could conceivably be ready for Opening Day of 2023, when he will be 19 months removed from TJS.

The 29-year-old Curtiss was solid for the Los Angeles Angels, Tampa Bay Rays, Miami Marlins, and Milwaukee Brewers in 59 games from 2019 to 2021, with a 2.89 ERA (3.74 FIP) and 1.15 WHIP with 70 strikeouts in 71.2 innings.

The most intriguing in-house option might be Bryce Montes de Oca, a hard throwing, max-effort guy who made his MLB debut in 2022 but needs to better harness his stuff. If he does, though, Montes de Oca -- whose fastball has touched 102 mph -- is a high-reward reliever with the stuff to be a shutdown bridge to Diaz.

We can throw Montes de Oca's very brief (three game) big league debut out the window because the sample is just too small. Instead, we'll look at what he did in the minors in 2022.

Across Double-A and Triple-A this past season, Montes de Oca had a 3.33 ERA over 51.1 innings while allowing just 35 hits (zero of which were home runs) and striking out a whopping 80 batters. The issue? He walked 38. That needs to improve drastically in the bigs for him to not only reach his ceiling, but be a reliable component.