Mets' decision to start Kodai Senga in Game 1 backfires, has ramifications for rest of NLCS

The Mets trusted Kodai Senga, to a fault as it turned out, and not only did it cost them Game 1 of the NLCS on Sunday night in Los Angeles, but now they could have some difficult pitching decisions to make -- presuming they can fight back in this series. 

First, they’ve got to prove they can score some runs against the Dodgers after getting shut out 9-0 in Game 1, and that is looking like no small feat. After all, LA has thrown three straight shutouts and 33 consecutive scoreless innings, going back to their NLDS series against the San Diego Padres.

Jack Flaherty shut them down over seven innings, and the Dodgers, with only three healthy starters, are expected to throw a bullpen Game on Monday, knowing they have an off-day before (potentially) three straight games in New York.

The bad news for the Mets is the Dodgers have a deep and very strong 'pen, one that shut out the Padres in a similar bullpen outing in Game 4. 

The good news for the Mets, on the other hand, is they have Sean Manaea starting Game 2 on Monday. 

And maybe that’s a silver lining, that they didn’t use their ace in Game 1 if you presume the offense would have been shut down under any circumstances. Because if Manaea goes out and dominates, as he has so often for the last three months, the Mets could get out of LA with a split and then getting routed in Game 1 won’t sting so much.

However, it’s certainly fair to wonder if Flaherty would have been as good without the big early leads -- 3-0 after two innings and 6-0 after four. 

And that brings us back to the decision to start Senga in Game 1. 

It never made much sense to me, and I said as much on SNY during the week, so this isn’t merely a second guess. I just didn’t understand why they wouldn’t start Manaea, who was on regular rest, or even Luis Severino, who would have had two extra days’ rest from his Game 2 start in the NLDS. 

SNY’s Andy Martino is reporting that the Mets went with Senga because they believed both Manaea and Severino needed extra rest. 

Of course, that could be a way of justifying a decision that backfired on them. 

In any case, Manaea threw 91 pitches in his previous start, and hadn’t thrown more than 91 since Sept. 11. And Severino, again, already had two extra days after throwing 91 pitches a week ago Sunday against the Phillies. 

So, who knows? 

Remember, there was no argument when Senga started Game 1 of the NLDS in Philadelphia, because the Mets, after their grueling finish to the season and Wild Card series in Milwaukee, didn’t have a starter available on regular rest. 

This time was different. I made the case that the Mets actually had time to have Senga throw a simulated game to further build up his arm and then start him in Game 4. 

As it turned out, perhaps such a schedule also would have helped him refine his mechanics, which he said were out of line on Sunday night. 

Bottom line is the Mets trusted Senga too much, perhaps going back to that dominant start against the Atlanta Braves on July 26 after missing so much time due to a shoulder capsule injury, or even his ability to get through two innings in Philly while surrendering only one run on a leadoff home run by Kyle Schwarber.

Because he just didn’t have it on Sunday, walking the bases loaded as part of a two-run first inning, and giving up another run in the second inning before being pulled. He got only four outs, and one of them was a sacrifice bunt. 

So now what? Starting the series I thought the Mets would have been best-suited continuing to use David Peterson to bolster their late-inning bullpen, which has been leaking oil in this postseason. 

But Carlos Mendoza brought Peterson in to relieve Reed Garrett in the third inning on Sunday and used him for 2.1 innings and 40 pitches. He wasn’t effective, giving up four hits and three runs (two earned), and certainly won’t be available until Game 3 at the earliest. 

However, at this point, I think the Mets have to look at Peterson as the likely Game 5 starter, after Manaea, Severino, and Jose Quintana. 

Presuming they don’t get swept, that is. 

And I don’t think they will. Everything went wrong Sunday, including bad baserunning and bad defense as well, and maybe the three days off after such a grueling stretch of hard-fought games left them a little flat. 

Or they were reeling a bit from falling behind big so early. 

But unless things continue to go horribly wrong, Game 5 figures to be crucial for the Mets, and at that point, Peterson would have plenty of rest and be a better option to start than Senga.  

In turn, that will ratchet up the pressure on the bullpen. Perhaps the extra rest in recent days will freshen up Phil Maton, in particular, as well as Ryne Stanek and Edwin Diaz. 

However, it didn’t seem to help Jose Butto, who gave up the final three runs on Sunday and for a while now hasn’t looked like the guy who was a bullpen savior for much of the season. 

Ideally, Peterson loomed as a crucial X-factor again, after closing out the Wild Card series and then shutting down the Phillies for 2.1 innings of Game 4 in the NLDS, getting the ball to Diaz. 

Now the Mets don’t have that luxury. With even more on the line next time, they just can’t make the mistake of trusting Senga again.