Which Mets should be candidates for extensions during 2022-23 offseason?

The Mets are going to have plenty on their plate this offseason when it comes to assembling their team for 2023 and beyond, and figuring out how everything fits will not be easy. 

While a lot of the core players are returning, plenty of New York's most important ones are set to hit free agency, including Jacob deGrom, Edwin Diaz, Brandon Nimmo, and Chris Bassitt.

Along with deGrom and Bassitt, two of the Mets' other rotation mainstays from 2022 are facing uncertain futures. Taijuan Walker will not be opting in to his one-year, $6 million deal for 2023, and the Mets hold a team option for Carlos Carrasco worth $14 million for next season.

Regardless of what happens via free agency with the Mets' internal free agents and the external ones they'll pursue on the open market, the team is also likely to explore the trade market -- and there's a once-in-a-century player whose availability would result in an earthquake as teams fall all over themselves to acquire him.

So to say this could be a momentous offseason for the Mets would be an understatement. And GM Billy Eppler and Co. will be incredibly busy in the coming months.

But while much of the buzz will surround the free agent and trade possibilities, the Mets should also be thinking of extending some of their players who are still under team control.

And there are two Mets who should be approached about extensions this offseason...

PETE ALONSO

Alonso, 27, is set to hit free agency after the 2024 season. And if the Mets don't get an extension done with Alonso this offseason, it's easy to see him betting on himself and hitting the open market after 2024.

While there are situations where players are open to signing extensions the season before they hit free agency (Aaron Judge negotiated with the Yankees before the 2022 season and rejected their best offer), there are other instances where players refuse to negotiate once they get close to free agency.

One example is deGrom, who set a deadline for an extension with the Mets for Opening Day of the 2019 season, which was his second-to-last before free agency -- he was set to be arbitration-eligible for a final time in 2020. The Mets, of course, got that deal with deGrom done.

Alonso is not deGrom, and how he deals with his future could be different, but there's really no reason for the Mets to wait and risk losing him.

In just three full seasons in the majors (the fourth season was the shortened pandemic one in 2020), Alonso has shattered the Mets' single-season home run record (when he hit 53 in his rookie season of 2019) and become the first Mets player ever to hit 40 or more home runs twice (he hit 40 this season).

Along the way, Alonso has become one of the most vocal and accountable players on the team, has embraced the fans and New York, and has grown as a hitter (he hit a career-high .271 in 2022 with a .352 OBP and .518 slugging percentage). He also had 131 RBI this season, tied with Judge for the most in MLB.

Alonso is projected to make roughly $16 million in 2023, and his salary would go up again in 2024 in what is his final year of arbitration.

If the Mets extend Alonso this offseason, the point would be for them to get a bit of a break on the overall dollars while giving Alonso a massive payday and security two years before he would otherwise get it. And with Alonso's salary already getting expensive, the additional yearly dollars as part of an extension would be negligible when it comes to the impact on the overall payroll -- even if Alonso's average annual value as part of an extension is around $24 million.

Having already hit 146 home runs, Alonso could conceivably break Darryl Strawberry's all-time Mets record of 252 during the 2025 season, when Alonso will be just 30 years old. From there, he could be on track to become their best homegrown player ever. But this is all dependent on the Mets locking him up. 

JEFF MCNEIL

Like Alonso, McNeil is set to hit free agency after the 2024 season.

But McNeil is about to enter his age-31 season as Alonso enters his age-28 season, so it will not take as many years to extend McNeil as it will to extend Alonso.

For McNeil, who would be hitting free agency for the first time before his age-33 season -- but whose elite bat-to-ball skills and an offensive game that isn't reliant on power should age well -- one would think he'd be open to signing an extension now that tacks on perhaps two or three years beyond 2024. What might that deal look like? 

McNeil is projected to make roughly $6 million in 2023, so if the Mets were to offer a four-year deal worth $48 million, would he accept? That deal would buy out the final two years of arbitration and keep McNeil under contract through 2026, which is his age-34 season.

McNeil is a truly gifted hitter. And as he was winning the batting title in 2022, he was among the best players in baseball when it came to strikeout rate, whiff percentage, and xBA. 

McNeil is also a gifted fielder (he was in the 95th percentile this season in Outs Above Average) who has the ability to play second base, third base, and both corner outfield spots. So his value isn't limited just to his bat. 

One unknown with McNeil is how the partial ban on shifts -- which will go into effect for the 2023 season -- will impact him.

But a player with the approach, selectivity, and bat control of McNeil should be able to easily adjust to what defenders do against him going forward, regardless of the new shift rules. 

FRANCISCO ALVAREZ AND BRETT BATY 

We're going to veer from the headline here, since extensions for Alvarez and/or Baty wouldn't be something the Mets consider until the 2023 season at the earliest.

But when you look at how many young stars (including Wander Franco and pretty much everyone on the Atlanta Braves) have inked extensions soon after making their big league debuts, the Mets should be considering a similar approach with Alvarez and Baty.

For example, if Alvarez is an immediate star next season and is flashing the MVP-level ceiling he's been projected to have, the Mets should be open to talking about an extension.

The same goes for Baty, who could be the Mets' third baseman of the future as soon as 2023 -- perhaps initially as part of a platoon with Eduardo Escobar, whose contract is up after the 2023 season.

As would be the case with Alonso and McNeil, the point of locking up Alvarez and/or Baty quickly would be to benefit both parties. The Mets would get them on a discount, but the deal would be big enough to give the players enough incentive to bite. 

It should be noted that while the Mets exploring extensions for their youngest players makes sense, they might want to let that play out a bit longer in order to fully benefit from the cost-control they would get from paying them regular zero-to-three player salaries. That's because of the massive payroll the Mets are expected to have the next few seasons. 

And if the Mets opt to wait a bit on potential Alvarez and Baty extensions should either or both player warrant one, a good time to strike might be during the 2024-25 offseason, when the Mets should have plenty of money coming off the books.

Either way, with the Mets attempting to build a sustainable winner that contends every season, getting their own players locked up will be incredibly important as they look to rely less on the free agent and trade markets.