While MLB and the MLBPA discuss potential scenarios that could lead to the return of baseball from the coronavirus pause, one scenario that was recently reported on was the "Cactus and Grapefruit League" plan.
While it seems less feasible and thus less likely than the Arizona plan due to a much more spread out travel situation, the Cactus and Grapefruit League plan would mean that the National League and American League would cease to exist in 2020, with teams split up in Florida and Arizona depending on where their spring training facilities are located.
The above would mean leagues mixed with NL and AL teams, and would lead to new divisions being drawn up.
The Mets would be in a division with the Nationals, Astros, Cardinals, and Marlins.
The Phillies would be in a division with the Yankees, Tigers, Pirates, and Blue Jays.
The Braves' division would have the Red Sox, Twins, Rays, and Orioles in it.
In projections from Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs, he eliminated the "divisions" and instead projected the season in a world where each 15-team league plays the other 14 teams in its league eight times. He also figured in the use of a universal DH.
With the Grapefruit League having seven of the 10 playoff teams from the 2019 season, it's fair to believe that will be the much tougher league. And Szymborski's projections bear that out.
In the projections, the Mets finish with a record of 58-54, good for seventh place in the 15-team league, behind the Braves and Nationals, who both finish 63-49. Four traditional American League teams -- the Yankees, Astros, Rays, and Twins -- finish one through four in the Grapefruit League.
Under the above scenario, the Mets would have a 26.1 percent chance to make the playoffs, which is a 5.2 percent drop from where their odds would be in a regular season with regular leagues.
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