Stay or Go: Should Mets re-sign Sean Manaea?

Barring a surprise, the Mets' starting rotation is going to look very different in 2025.

Sean Manaea (who will decline his player option for next season), Luis Severino, and Jose Quintana are all free agents, with Kodai Senga and David Peterson the only starters who pitched for New York in 2024 who seem earmarked for a spot in the 2025 rotation.

If the Mets offer Paul Blackburn arbitration, he could be another option. So could Tylor Megill, who continues to be a bit of an enigma. There's also the possibility that they move Jose Butto back to the rotation from the bullpen.

Either way, the rotation will have to be rebuilt in some fashion.

New York extended a qualifying offer to Manaea, who will almost certainly reject it. Once that happens, it will be time for the Mets to determine how much they want him back -- and how high they're willing to go in terms of years and dollars trying to make it happen.

WHY IT COULD MAKE SENSE TO LET MANAEA GO

Manaea will be entering his age-33 season in 2025, which isn't ancient for a pitcher. But it's close enough to the expected downturn of a pitcher's career to be wary of committing too many years.

There's also the fact that Manaea will be coming off a career-high for innings (181.2 in the regular season and 19.0 more in the postseason) after tossing just 117.2 innings in 2023 as he worked in a hybrid starter/reliever role for the Giants.

Manaea tired out at the end of the Mets' playoff run, but he wasn't alone. Severino and Quintana also looked gassed, as did most of New York's relievers.

While it's fair to wonder how Manaea might bounce back after such a big workload, it should also be pointed out that he's been pretty durable during his nine-year career -- eclipsing 144.0 innings in six of eight full seasons (the shortened 2020 COVID year not included).

There's also the question of whether Manaea's market will get a bit crazy.

Beyond the big fish of Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, and Blake Snell, and the high-upside Walker Buehler (whose deal won't be in the same category as the top three), the market for free agent starting pitchers has a steep drop.

And after Burnes, Fried, Snell, and Buehler, it can be argued that Manaea is the best of the rest -- or at least the pitcher with the best mix of past durability and present upside.

The above could mean a market for Manaea that gets a bit out of control in terms of the years he might receive.

WHY IT COULD MAKE SENSE TO KEEP MANAEA

Of the Mets' three pending free agent starting pitchers, Manaea is likely the best bet.

It's hard to envision a reunion with Quintana. And while it makes sense to extend the qualifying offer to Severino, the best outcome there would be his accepting it and returning to the rotation for one year at a higher average annual value than he would get on a multiyear deal.

And the reason why Manaea's market might get a bit nuts is the same reason the Mets should be very open to bringing him back -- he's one of the best free agent pitchers available.

While it's hard to bank on Manaea being able to maintain the level of production he had after dropping his arm angle during the middle of the 2024 season, it's also quite possible he's simply unlocked something. And even if he doesn't maintain ace-level production, he could be a steal if he simply comes close.

After changing his delivery in late July, Manaea had a 3.09 ERA in 12 starts to close the regular season, holding opposing hitters to a .170/.230/.307 triple slash while allowing just 46 hits in 75.2 innings.

Manaea was also largely dominant during his first three postseason starts, allowing just five earned runs in 17 innings across the Wild Card Series, NLDS, and Game 2 of the NLCS. And in his first NLCS start against the Dodgers in Los Angeles, he made Shohei Ohtani look downright silly.

Beyond the performance on the field is the fact that Manaea wants to be a Met.

Speaking after the season ended, an emotional Manaea was choked up at times.

"Just super proud of everything we accomplished -- everyone here," he said. "Nobody else I'd do it with."

He noted about his future:

"I have no control over that right now and I’m not really thinking about it. But I’ve loved my time here. I love New York, the organization, and all the people here, so I’d definitely love to be back."

VERDICT

Beyond an expected pursuit of Juan Soto and a potential reunion with Pete Alonso, the Mets should have Manaea as their next most important priority this offseason.

If the years don't get too crazy, the Mets should be able to make something work here -- with Manaea getting a nice annual raise from the $14.5 million he made in 2024. Perhaps a three-year deal worth around $20 million annually could get it done.