Mets at Astros: 5 things to watch and series predictions | March 27-29

Here are five things to watch and predictions as the Mets and Astros open the regular season with a three-game series in Houston beginning on Thursday at 4:10 p.m. on SNY.

Preview

How will Clay Holmes' stuff translate?

It's really hard to take what you see in spring training at face value. At the same time, it's impossible to ignore how dominant Holmes looked this spring as he transitioned from reliever to starter.

In 19.0 innings pitched, Holmes posted a 0.93 ERA. And he often made hitters look foolish, including in his final spring start this past Friday when he fanned eight batters over 5.1 shoutout frames.

But the ultimate test for Holmes will come when he takes the ball for the Mets on Opening Day against an Astros lineup that is a bit weaker than it was in 2024 but still strong.

Needing an expanded arsenal to be able to go through opposing lineups twice or three times per game, Holmes added a "kick changeup" that he deployed with lots of success during Grapefruit League play.

The changeup and a four-seamer Holmes is looking to refine will add two more pitches to a repertoire that included his daunting sinking fastball, a sweeper, and a slider last season.

With Sean Manaea out until the end of April and Frankie Montas likely out until June, Holmes excelling in his new role would go a long way for the Mets in the early going.

First real look at the Mets' offense with Juan Soto

We got a bit of a sneak peek at the Mets' lineup during the latter part of spring training, but that was with players basically going through the motions as they worked out the kinks ahead of the regular season.

Now, it starts for real.

And right in the middle of things will be Soto, who will be sandwiched between Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso in a batting order that will feature Mark Vientos and Brandon Nimmo right behind the top three.

While Francisco Alvarez will likely be out until the end of April or a bit longer, New York should have plenty of punch to get by until he returns, with Jesse Winker and Starling Marte expected to split designated hitter duties and Jose Siri offering some serious pop in center field.

A wild card in the offense early on could be Brett Baty, who is coming off a torrid spring at the plate and is in line to get the bulk of the action at second base while Jeff McNeil is out.

How will Edwin Diaz fare?

There has been lots of consternation lately about Diaz, specifically when it comes to his velocity. And I'm not sure why.

For most of spring training, Diaz sat around 95-96 mph with his fastball and touched 97 mph. That led to a number of people worrying about his velo, even though Diaz's average fastball last season was 97.5 mph -- which put him in the 94th percentile in baseball.

Diaz not dialing it all the way up this spring really shouldn't be surprising since he has nothing to prove. That wasn't the case last spring, when he was returning after missing the entire 2023 season due to a knee injury and had to prove to himself that he was still ... himself.

It should also be pointed out that Diaz has seemingly intentionally added and subtracted fastball velocity throughout his career (it averaged 97.3 mph in 2018, 99.1 mph in 2022, and 97.5 mph in 2024).

Additionally, Diaz was at his high-octane best during the 2024 MLB postseason, including rearing back for 101 mph to strike out Kyle Schwarber while clinching the NLDS at Citi Field.

The new-look Astros

The Astros went through some big changes during the offseason.

First, they traded superstar outfielder Kyle Tucker to the Cubs after determining that they wouldn't be able to sign Tucker when he hits free agency after this season.

Then, after attempting to re-sign him, they lost cornerstone third baseman Alex Bregman to the Red Sox in free agency.

While retooling its offense this winter, Houston signed first baseman Christian Walker and added infielder Isaac Paredes (who was acquired in the Tucker trade).

The Astros are also moving second baseman Jose Altuve to left field -- a wild late-career change for the future Hall-of-Famer.

Houston still has elite closer Josh Hader and a very good top of the starting rotation that is led by Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown, but their offense and defense are going to look radically different this season.

Beware of Yordan Alvarez

The Astros should still have a pretty potent lineup -- especially if promising infielder Jeremy Peña can harness his potential -- but Tucker and Bregman being gone should make it easier for opposing teams to pitch around all-world slugger Yordan Alvarez.

Alvarez has been a one-man wrecking crew over the last three seasons, slashing .303/.401/.587 with 103 home runs and 280 RBI over 396 games.

Last season saw Alvarez post an OPS+ of 172 in a career-high 552 at-bats.

The damage Alvarez can do is serious, and the Mets should do their best to not let him beat them.

Predictions

Who will the MVP of the series be?

Pete Alonso

The Crawford Boxes in left field should be an inviting target for Alonso, who hits most of his home runs that way.

Which Mets pitcher will have the best start?

Clay Holmes

Holmes' upside as a starter is real, and he'll start showing it on Opening Day.

Which Astros player will be a thorn in the Mets' side?

Isaac Paredes

Paredes has pop and makes a lot of contact -- a good mix for his new home ballpark.