Giants Mailbag: Is Big Blue comfortable paying Daniel Jones Top 10 QB money?

The NFL offseason is well underway.

Let’s open up the mailbag and address your concerns on the state of the Giants.

@SeanMaffia: Would the Giants consider taking Bijan Robinson (Texas) if they were to let Saquon Barkley walk?

HUGHES: This is really GM Joe Schoen’s first offseason in charge. He had to spend so much of 2021 cleaning up Dave Gettleman’s mess that, aside from his draft picks, there was very little else he could do in terms of talent acquisition. It’s tough to forecast exactly how he wants to build this team because he’s still a bit of an unknown, but when it comes to the running back position, I’d turn attention towards the way the Bills and Brandon Beane are doing things.

Schoen spoke a lot about positional value and delegating resources both at his baggy day press conference and in Mobile. Running back did not seem to be very high on that list. I think you’re going to see the Giants instead invest in positions like the offensive line, receiver, cornerback and quarterback, with the other spots being ones they instead look for value.

I think you’d see the Giants try to sign a veteran running back if they were to let Barkley walk. There’s some legitimate value there for undrafted free agents — all of whom would cost less than the $16 million annually Barkley is looking for. Robinson is an interesting name if the Giants turn to the draft, which they could, but it’s hard to imagine New York taking a running back before the third or fourth round. Robinson, most draft analysts believe, is a first-round pick.

Some names to keep an eye on who could come cheaper than Barkley in free agency: Jamaal Williams (Lions), Kareem Hunt (Chiefs), Devin Singletary (Bills), D'Onta Foreman (Panthers).

@Samps_NYG: Do you think Andrew Thomas, Dexter Lawrence get long-term contracts this offseason?

HUGHES: It’s something the Giants should explore. It’s really going to come down to how far apart the sides are on numbers. Remember: The Giants still have Lawrence’s fifth-year option, then can franchise tag him. They still have the fourth year of Thomas’ contract, his fifth-year option, then the franchise tag. They don’t have to do anything yet.

The benefit of it, though, is that it could free up some legitimate salary cap space. You figure both Lawrence and Thomas are looking at five-year extensions — meaning the cap hit of the signing bonus attached to both deals is spread out over the length of that deal. Right now, Thomas will have a $10.2 million cap hit for the 2023 season, and Lawrence a $12.4 million. Both of those numbers can drop with extensions, giving the Giants more money to play with this offseason.

@GPOGiants1999: Why is Daniel Jones elite?

HUGHES: He’s not. I’m not sure anyone inside the Giants building feels he’s elite, either. He’s a good quarterback. On his best days he can be very good. For most teams that’s enough. You can win with Jones under center. The narrative a team needs Josh Allen (Bills) or Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) to compete isn’t true.

The problem is that the Giants’ last regime wasted Jones’ rookie contract years. That’s where you really could have feasted with him. The best part about drafting a quarterback who can play is that you don’t have to pay him for five seasons. The Giants could have used the money they were saving on Jones to round out the roster and build a legitimate force. Instead, Gettleman botched draft picks and free agent signings and the Giants spent Jones’ early years as a league basement dweller.

So now Schoen finds himself in a tricky situation. He needs to determine a middle ground that allows him to keep Jones happy, but not hamstring him to a contract that prevents him from rounding out the roster with talent.

@Sauce_SZN1: How do the Giants feel about potentially paying Daniel Jones $35-$37 million per year?

HUGHES: People really need to stop freaking out about $37 million. It’s not that much for a quarterback. Let’s really break it down. An average of $37 million per year would put Jones 10th in the NFL in terms of average per year. He’d be just behind Matt Stafford (Rams) and Dak Prescott, both of whom are at $40 million), and just ahead of Kirk Cousins (Vikings) and Jared Goff (Lions), who are at $35 and $33 million.

Here’s the thing, though: Joe Burrow (Bengals), Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars) and Justin Herbert (Chargers) are all due for extensions shortly. The three of them are going to completely reset the market with deals expected to exceed $55 to $60 million annually.

Once those three quarterbacks get paid, Jones would drop to 13th in AAV. You can make the argument Jones is a top-15 quarterback. He likely checks in around 11, 12 or 13 on the pecking order, if you want to get specific. So that $37 million figure is fair in terms of where it would place him. He’s not top-five. He’s not even top-10. He’d be 13.

Also remember this: The NFL salary cap is on the up and up. The league is finally done with the ramifications of losing fans in the stands during COVID. The cap jumped $16.6 million this year. It’s expected to go up even more next year. That means $37 million now won’t feel the same as $37 million in 2024 or 2025.

So yes, the Giants are absolutely willing to pay Jones between $35 and $37 million. You space that out over a five-year contract and you give yourself wiggle room to make the cap hit work for you.

Where things get tricky is if Jones and his representatives come in wanting $40-plus million.

@1jtg_: If the Giants tag Daniel Jones, could they also draft a quarterback?

HUGHES: Tagging Jones is a worst-case scenario for the Giants. It’s an option they will exercise if need be — they’re not letting Jones out of their building — but it’s better for both sides if they can work out a long-term deal. Again: It comes down to the salary cap hit. Tagging Jones puts that entire $33 million hit on the 2023 season. A five-year deal would take Jones’ signing bonus and space it out over the length of the contract.

Example: Jones signs a five-year, $185-million contract with a $50 million signing bonus. The cap hit of that $50 million is prorated over the five years — so $10 million per year. The base salary of the first year is normally lower because the player receives his entire signing bonus that season. So say that the first season’s base is $10 million. Jones’ cap hit for 2023 would not be $33 million (on the franchise tag), but $20 million, giving the Giants an extra $10 million to use in free agency. Generally base salaries increase in future years. That gives teams the opportunity to convert those base salaries to signing bonuses. It gives players the money up front, but spaces out the cap hit of the converted money throughout the remainder of the contract.

The Giants will be fully committing to Jones if they sign him to a five-year deal. That means everything they do from there on out will be about surrounding him with talent. They’ll find receivers who run the routes he likes, linemen who block the way he likes, etc. They’re not going to draft someone after investing that much on Jones.

Tagging Jones changes everything, though. That’s just a one-year contract. Anything can happen from there. So if the Giants can’t agree to something long term, and are forced to tag him, then drafting a quarterback is absolutely on the table.

@Benninger_MR: Do you think it will be easy for the Giants to replace Wink Martindale (DC) and Mike Kafka (OC) if they get head coaching jobs?

HUGHES: Kafka is a good coach and has a bright future, but this is Brian Daboll’s offense. This is among the reasons I’m in favor of hiring offensive-minded head coaches who bring with them their own scheme. The voices calling the plays might change, but the structure of the offense does not. Starting from scratch with a brand new offense is no small undertaking. It shouldn’t be that hard for the Giants to replace Kafka.

Martindale is different. He’d likely take a number of his staffers with him to the Colts, if that’s the job he gets. The Giants do have some scheme flexibility to replace him if need be, though. It’s not like they’re locked into a 3-4 or 4-3. The bigger issue would be losing Martindale himself. He’s a tremendous culture guy and his wealth of knowledge is so valuable. The Giants would certainly miss him.

@GiantsVidal1027: What’s the Giants’ current interest in Odell Beckham since they have a head start on most teams due to the visit they had?

HUGHES: It was smart for the Giants to do what they tried to do with Beckham. They had no real belief he’d play in 2022. The thought was that they could give him some guaranteed money now, then have him rehab and train with their medical staff, to return in 2023. Beckham basically wanted to be paid like he’s already 100 percent and will be the player he was pre-injury.

I think you’ll see the Giants explore that one again this offseason. Beckham should be able to work out for teams by March. If he shows he’s even 80 percent of the player he was he’ll have much more than the Giants, Cowboys and Bills interested in signing him. I’d expect the Giants to be in that one until the end. Granted, Beckham’s interest in returning to New York might be a bit more lukewarm if the Giants let Barkley and Sterling Shepard, his two close friends, walk.