Breaking down the Mets' Adrian Houser, Tyrone Taylor trade with the Brewers

The Mets continue to build up their 2024 roster.

The Mets acquired right-hander Adrian Houser and outfielder Tyrone Taylor from the Brewers in exchange for minor league right-hander Coleman Crow. This is a trade that fits two needs that the Mets have been pursuing all winter: starting pitching and outfield depth.

What the Mets are getting

Houser, 30, has been a back-end starter and swingman for the Brewers. In 2023, he made 23 appearances (21 starts) and posted a 4.12 ERA in 111.1 innings, striking out 96 batters. He has historically not been a big strikeout pitcher, more so relying on ground ball rate and being above average in avoiding barrels. The righty brings a four-pitch mix, headlined by a fastball that sits in the 93-95 mph range, as well as a slider, curveball and changeup. 

Houser projects as an option to be the Mets' fifth or sixth starter in a rotation that President of Baseball Operations David Stearns knows very well from his time in Milwaukee. Houser is arbitration-eligible and is in his final year of team control. He is projected to make $5.6 million, according to MLBTradeRumors, which could prove to be a value given what back-end starting pitchers are netting on the free-agent market this winter. That market is in the $11-$14 million type of range thus far.

Taylor, 29, in a way, is a prototypical fourth outfielder. Offensively, he has a career .239/.294/.451 slash line in parts of five seasons with the Brewers. The slugging percentage is what he brings to the table most offensively, as he posted an Isolated Power (ISO) of .212, which would have been 34^th in baseball, slotting in between Julio Rodriguez of the Mariners and Spencer Torkelson of the Tigers had he had enough at-bats to qualify. 

Where Taylor fits most as a fourth outfielder is with his speed and defense. In 2023, his sprint speed of 28.8 feet/per second was in the 86^th percentile of all baserunners. Defensively, he can play all three outfield spots and was +2 outs above average (OAA) in 2023, which is an identifier of range. Taylor also possesses a plus arm at an average of 90.4 mph from the outfield, which is comparable to Starling Marte. Taylor is in his first year of arbitration, projected $1.7 million by MLBTradeRumors, and the Mets will have him under control for the next three seasons.

What the Mets are giving up

To obtain Houser and Taylor, along with picking up the projected $7.3 million in salary, the Mets gave up Crow, who they had acquired along with right-hander Landon Marceaux from the Angels in exchange for Eduardo Escobar. 

Crow was not ranked among the top 20 prospects in the Mets system in SNY’s latest update from August. Shortly after joining the Mets organization, Crow underwent Tommy John surgery and is expected to miss the entire 2024 season. 

When Crow is right, he is an athletic right-hander with a four-pitch mix and a fastball that can reach 95 mph from a low ¾ arm slot. He also has an above-average slider, and an average curveball and changeup. Most scouts believe he projects as either a back-end starter or a multi-inning reliever at the next level. 

The Mets elected to not add him to the 40-man roster this winter, leaving him susceptible in the Rule 5 draft where he went unselected.

What’s next for the Mets

Yoshinobu Yamamoto. As reported by SNY’s Andy Martino, the Mets are in the process of making a very serious offer to Yamamoto. The direction of the Mets offseason hinges on Yamamoto’s decision, which must be complete by Jan. 4 at 5 p.m.. 

If Yamamoto picks a different destination, the Mets will have a need to fill in the rotation, which most expect to be of the short-term variety. A name like Lucas Giolito stands out to me as a good mix of floor and ceiling. They can also use more help in the bullpen, where there is plenty of inventory available that could pitch in the seventh/eighth inning of games that can be had on a short-term deal. Think of names like David Robertson and Ryne Stanek as fits.

On the offensive side, they could use another outfielder, ideally one that can play nearly every day as well as a designated hitter. There have already been reports of a possible reunion with Justin Turner to be a designated hitter and depth option at third base. 

Whether the Mets get Yamamoto or not, they still have multiple holes to fill on this roster to be a playoff competitor in 2024, and as shown by this trade with the Brewers, Stearns is going to be monitoring both the free agent and trade markets.