Coming off a season where their starting pitching cost them a chance to play in October, the Mets have tons of work to do when it comes to fixing a rotation that arguably has only two guarantees in it at the moment.
There is Jacob deGrom, who is the best pitcher in baseball. And there is David Peterson, who emerged in his rookie campaign as someone who should be a reliable back of the rotation starter. That's it.
What the above means is that the Mets need to find three reliable starting pitchers between now and Opening Day of 2021, whether those pitchers come from outside the organization or from within.
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Before analyzing the internal options, let's talk about Noah Syndergaard for a minute.
Syndergaard, who is working his way back from Tommy John surgery, could potentially be ready for Opening Day, but that would mean making it back roughly 12 months after surgery.
In a potential likelier scenario, Syndergaard might not be ready to return until June or July. Translation? The Mets cannot rely on him, especially early on. If they get him, great. But it should be viewed as a bonus.
THE INTERNAL OPTIONS
Seth Lugo
We might as well get this out of the way first.
Lugo has been a decent starting pitcher during his career -- his 6.15 ERA in 26.1 IP over seven starts in 2020 notwithstanding. But he has been a dominant reliever. And with tons of uncertainty in their bullpen, that's where he's of greater value to the Mets.
Had Lugo performed exceptionally well in the rotation this past season, it would've been hard to remove him. But he didn't. And while Lugo could potentially be a high-upside rotation piece, what he did in 2020 did not inspire confidence.
Steven Matz
Matz struggled so badly in 2020 that he was not only moved to the bullpen but rendered unusable for a time.
From 2015 to 2019, even when you include the clunker of a season that 2017 was, Matz had a 4.05 ERA and 1.29 WHIP while striking out 8.5 batters per 9. If he can get back to that in 2021, he could be of great value. But the Mets cannot count on him doing so.
Thomas Szapucki
That Szapucki is listed here speaks to how barren the Mets' upper minors are of potential starting pitchers -- especially those who can make an impact.
The above is not a knock on Szapucki. It is an acknowledgment that a pitcher who has yet to make his big league debut and is still building his arm back up after Tommy John surgery should not be this high on the list. But he is.
Szapucki, 24, tossed 61.2 innings in 2019 and it's unclear how many innings could be allotted for him in 2021. If the safety wheels are mostly off, he is a lefty with a plus fastball and curve who could be a solid option as a No. 5 starter.
Franklyn Kilome
Kilome struggled badly in relief in 2020, posting an 11.12 ERA and 2.02 WHIP in 11.1 IP as he got his first taste of the majors.
All hope is not lost for Kilome, who is only 25 years old and flashes plus stuff at times. But like those above him, he cannot be counted on in a big way in 2020
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Of the non-Lugo internal options listed here, perhaps the Mets can have them battle it out in spring training to see if one of them is worthy of the final spot in the rotation.
But no matter what the Mets do, they need to add minor league starting rotation depth this offseason through free agency and/or trade, and they need to sign or trade for two legitimate starting pitchers -- ideally one who can pitch near the top of the rotation, and another who can pitch in the middle of the rotation.
That takes us to the below...
