J.D. Davis, Luis Guillorme, Robert Gsellman, and Dominic Smith are all quickly approaching a make-or-break point in their respective careers. And, though they have not yet hit the typical age considered to be a player's 'prime years,' their clocks are ticking given their ages and contract status.
If they were each a public traded company, would I be buying them, selling or holding?
1) Dominic Smith >> BUY
When first promoted to the Mets during the summer of 2017, Smith was considered their second-best prospect and the top first base prospect in baseball.
However, during his 49 games that season, he struggled to be consistent and live up to expectations in the field and a the plate. And before he could get himself right, along came Pete Alonso.
But Smith showed last season that he has the talent to make an impact no matter the role, plus he's still just 24 years old.
I'd buy his stock because he's committed to being great and he's young, smart, versatile and talented enough to -- at the very least -- show other teams he's worth being acquired by another where he may find a better path to success.
2) Luis Guillorme >> HOLD
Guillorme, 25, is going to be on the 26-man roster this season and expected to play an important utility role.
He's best known for his glove and arm, both of which are sensational. However, to convince baseball he is an everyday player, it would likely take Robinson Cano or Amed Rosario getting injured. If one of them is out for an extended period of time, Guillorme could be called on to fill in every day. The chance that he takes over a position increases if more than one of the above goes down, especially Rosario.
However, to turn this opportunity into an everyday role, in addition to continuing to play sensational defense, Guillorme also has to hit more than he did in 2019.
Last season, he hit .246 with a .326 OBP, which is not terrible. He had better results in Triple-A. If he's able to cut down on striking out and also get (at the very least) average luck on balls in play, his offensive stats should improve enough to justify being a starting player on someone's roster -- if not the Mets.
I can't invest more in Guillorme, though, even though I believe in his talent. Timing and being dependent on the health of two other players, all while making difficult adjustments to his swing, is a tall order. It's not impossible, but it's not worth buying as a long-term bet.
3) Robert Gsellman >> SELL
It's risky to bet on any one reliever given how tumultuous and unpredictable their careers can be from year to year. That said, Gsellman, 26, has the talent to one day elevate to a dominant reliever. I's just difficult to see how it happens during the next season or two.
For starters, he's on a team that has multiple relievers with better recent results, more experience and clout, and contracts that will need to be justified by time on the mound.
In his defense, he has been injured, which has impacted how often he's been used. That said, whether justified or not, he's been used in fewer innings and against fewer batters during each of the past few seasons. His numbers in those situations have been up and down depending on the category, but it's difficult to increase value when not on the mound enough to do it.
That said, four or five years from now, it would not surprise me to see him emerge as an elite reliever with another team making us wish he was never cut loose or traded.
4) J.D. Davis >> BUY
More than anyone on this list, Davis has the chance to be Apple stock.
Davis, 26, has said he's most comfortable playing third base. However, if he's hitting how most experts (and our eyes) believe he can, his offensive production will justify his shortcomings in the outfield.
As it stands, based on 450 or so at-bats, systems used by FanGraphs collectively project he'll hit around 20 home runs, 20 or so doubles, bat around .270 and knock in close to 70 runs in 2020, all which put him around 1.5 WAR. He had 2.4 WAR last season, while hitting 22 home runs and batting .307.
I have long viewed him as the new Kevin Mitchell, who during the mid-to-late 1980s was a very productive player for the Mets in a utility role. The Mets traded him to the Giants and a few years later he won the NL MVP, led the league in home runs and played in multiple All-Star Games.
Similar to Mitchell, Davis can play multiple positions and I have no doubt that if traded he will also go on to crush 40-plus home runs and make us regret the day he was dealt.
Matthew Cerrone (Facebook | Twitter | Instagram | Contact) is a senior writer of MetsBlog.com, which he created in 2003. His book, The New York Mets Fans' Bucket List, details 44 things every Mets fan should experience during their lifetime.
