With Mets' starting rotation in shambles, here's how they got here and how to fix it

After the Winter Meetings this past December, Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen said his team had one of the deepest rotations in baseball. Nearing the halfway mark of a 60-game season taking place in the midst of a pandemic, it can be argued that the Mets presently have one of the worst rotations in baseball.

How did we get here?

For one, the two pitchers Van Wagenen was counting on as part of that depth (Rick Porcello and Michael Wacha) should've been viewed as what-ifs due to recent failure and recent injury, respectively. They were instead viewed as givens.

Second, and more important than the outcome so far with Porcello (who has a 5.76 ERA) and Wacha (who struggled before landing on the IL), the Mets lost Noah Syndergaard for the season due to Tommy John surgery and lost Marcus Stroman for the season -- right before he was due to make his debut and provide a jolt to the rotation -- due to coronavirus concerns.

And then there's Steven Matz. Viewed as the potential linchpin of the rotation after the loss of Syndergaard, Matz has performed so poorly that he might be moved to the bullpen even though the Mets don't have an obvious option to replace him.

Oh, and Jacob deGrom is dealing with a neck issue that caused him to miss his last start, with his status for the next turn through the rotation unknown.

The loss of Syndergaard was a huge blow and the loss of Stroman was unforeseen. It's also shocking how badly Matz has pitched. But the Mets have so far been unable to overcome their rotation issues because of their lack of depth and the fact that they did not add another high-end starting pitcher during the offseason.

Prospect David Peterson has done a tremendous job as one of the rotation fill-ins, but Robert Gsellman is currently holding down a rotation spot after not having started in the majors since 2017, and Walker Lockett was just thrust into the rotation after posting an 8.84 ERA in 2018 and 2019.

All of the above has put tremendous stress on the Mets' bullpen, and has put manager Luis Rojas in a spot where he has to choose between trying to get length from shaky starting pitchers or potentially burning out his bullpen.

It can be argued that Rojas should've pulled Lockett after the fourth inning on Friday night and Porcello as soon as he got into trouble in the sixth inning on Sunday. He stayed with them, and Mets leads evaporated in eventual losses.

But this all trickles down from the top. And while lots of what the Mets have gone through this season has been unforeseen, they were simply unprepared depth-wise.

Part of the Mets' unpreparedness stems from recent trades that shipped off upper-minors pitching prospects, part of it is due to their reported refusal to engage Zack Wheeler in serious extension talks before he hit free agency, and part of it is due to the fact that they counted on too many "what-ifs" -- the very thing Van Wagenen said he wanted to eliminate.

It should also be noted that while Van Wagenen bears a certain amount of responsibility, he does not control the payroll. And it's that fact that could've hampered a potential effort to re-sign Wheeler and/or add more reliable pieces this past offseason.

So what happens now?

In the immediate, the Mets are looking at a starting rotation that looks like this:

Gsellman, Peterson, TBD, TBD, Porcello. And that's if Peterson is indeed fine after dealing with some shoulder fatigue.

DeGrom might return on Wednesday and Matz might start on Thursday (or maybe it'll be Franklyn Kilome or Lockett, or both needing to start).

If the Mets hope to get back into things in 2020, they'll need the severely undermanned rotation to step up.

Looking ahead to 2021, the Mets have only deGrom, Matz, and Peterson as likely members of their rotation. And while it would be both surprising and foolish for the team to non-tender Matz, he simply can't be relied on at this moment as one of the starting five going forward.

That means the Mets should be adding at least two pitchers from outside the organization before next season. Trevor Bauer, set to hit free agency, should be near the top of the list. New York should also explore a reunion with Stroman, though they'll need a true high-end starter (like Bauer) no matter who else they add (including Stroman).

As soon as 2022, the Mets might start getting contributions from their next wave of top-of-the-rotation prospects -- Matthew Allan, Josh Wolf, and J.T. Ginn. But for the rest of 2020, they are in no man's land when it comes to the rotation -- and absolutely should not be dealing prospects to try to fix it. Not when the risk is so high and the reward is so low in a strange season that is still tenuous.

Ahead of 2021, the Mets will have lots of money coming off the books, new owners likely in place, and will need to fix what has gone from their biggest strength to their potentially fatal flaw.