If the Mets are serious about trying to sign Trevor Bauer, they’re going to blow past the luxury-tax threshold, which makes you wonder if this isn’t at least partly a reaction to pulling up short in negotiations with George Springer.
All of which had baseball people speculating on Monday why the apparent change of direction.
“You weren’t hearing this from anyone until after Springer signed with Toronto,” said one person close to the situation. “Something changed.”
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It could be that the Mets were simply committed to letting the Springer situation play out first, but they clearly weren’t willing to go all-out for him after the Francisco Lindor trade, with all indications being their desire to stay under the $210 million payroll tax threshold.
So is it possible that owner Steve Cohen took the temperature of Met fandom, so to speak, after the Springer signing and decided he wants to make sure this offseason lives up to the expectations that came with his deep pockets?
Word leaking of the interest in Bauer does change the conversation after not only missing out on Springer but also some smaller pursuits over the weekend, as Brad Hand signed with the Nationals, while Kike Hernandez and Garrett Richards agreed to deals with the Red Sox.
We’ll know soon enough. SNY’s Andy Martino reported the Mets would consider signing Bauer on a short-term deal in the $30-million-a-year range, and, well, then the question is: How short?
“If you’re talking about a one-year deal it’s going to take more than $30 million,” one rival team executive told me. “Probably closer to $40 million because he’s going to want the highest AAV, and right now that’s (Gerrit) Cole at $36 million (a year).
“You never know with Bauer but I still think he’ll take the biggest deal he can find, because he’ll never have this kind of leverage again. If the AAV is $30 million, I can’t see him taking less than five years.”
That would add up to $150 million, or the total money the Blue Jays paid Springer. Would the Mets go there for Bauer?
Adding the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner would elevate their chances of winning a championship, obviously. Slotting Bauer behind Jacob deGrom and ahead of Carlos Carrasco, Marcus Stroman, and David Peterson, with the possibility of Noah Syndergaard returning from Tommy John surgery in June, could make for the best starting rotation in baseball.
That would also ensure that Seth Lugo goes back to being a reliever, a move that would make the Mets’ bullpen a strength as well, especially considering they just lost out on getting Hand.
Signing Bauer would come with some controversy, however, especially after recent revelations of Bauer harassing a college student on Twitter in the past, and that might be enough to make the Mets wary, especially after firing GM Jared Porter over inappropriate texting to a female reporter.
Perhaps it all depends whether Cohen feels he needs one more major move to officially make his first offseason a home run.
As it is, the Mets have upgraded enough in key spots to close the gap on the Braves in the NL East and figure to be serious postseason contenders.
But they’ve also left themselves with a glaring hole in center field, as the consensus among scouts is that Brandon Nimmo is below-average at that position.
Springer was simply the perfect fit in so many ways, as a right-handed bat to balance their lefty-leaning lineup as well as the proven clutch hitter who would be a guard against more of the failures that haunted the Mets’ offense in 2020.
By passing on him, it seemed Sandy Alderson was committed instead to spending his remaining money on smaller parts to round out the ball club, but over the weekend they also lost out on Hernandez as a potential center field solution, and then wouldn’t overpay for Hand, the lefty reliever they wanted.
And that’s where the Mets seem to be, in the words of one scout, “sending mixed signals.”
The scout was referring mostly to Hand’s decision to sign a one-year deal with the Nats for $10.5 million, choosing them apparently because he wanted to be the clear-cut closer.
“So offer him a two-year deal and you get him,” said the scout, who has worked with Alderson in the past. “But that’s where Sandy’s discipline on value decisions won’t allow him to overpay.
“That discipline is part of what makes him a great executive, but part of the advantage of having an owner with deep pockets is it gives you the ability to go the extra mile for a guy you really like.”
Now Alderson might have to make a similar judgment about value regarding Jackie Bradley Jr., the best center fielder left on the market. How much is too much to get his outstanding defense when he probably won’t hit much and adds another lefty bat to the lineup?
The bottom line is if the Mets were going to overpay for anyone, Springer was the right guy. When they didn’t, it seemed to send the signal that Cohen would only go so far in first offseason as the billionaire owner.
Then the Bauer talk started. Something changed. it’s just hard to know why exactly.