Why Aaron Judge's slump actually proves he was Most Valuable Player of first half

I know, that’s a weird headline.

And obviously, if Aaron Judge continues to slump, he won’t even be a thought to win the MVP award.

But at the moment, his numbers are that of one, and considering they are relatively similar to his career statistics, it’s certainly not out of the question that he’ll finish hitting in the mid .280s with an OPS just around 1.000. He's going to hit 50+ home runs again, and drive in at least 100 again. At this point, it's just a matter of what Judge and Shohei Ohtani will and won't do.

The term "Most Valuable Player" has had plenty of different meanings. More often than not, it’s the best player of the year. Other times, it’s the best player on the best team -- if Juan Soto had been on a better team in 2020, maybe he beats out Freddie Freeman.

Sometimes, they just make zero sense at all (Jimmy Rollins over Matt Holliday in 2007, Miguel Tejada over Alex Rodriguez in 2002, dare I say Jose Altuve over Judge in 2017...)

In this case though, we’re going to be pretty literal on the word "valuable."

Ohtani is currently the betting favorite, after that title had belonged to Judge for a couple of months. Look, if Ohtani won again, you won’t hear me complain.

Okay, I lied. I took Judge at 22-1 before the season. How could I not in a contract year?

But Ohtani's value to his team, and his value to the game of baseball around the entire world, doesn’t need defending. We have never seen this before, and we might never see it again.

And I’m not one to ask how valuable a player is when his team stinks. It’s not Ohtani’s fault that Anthony Rendon and Mike Trout are injured again. Ohtani is one of 26, and we all know that baseball is not like basketball where one player can propel a team to the playoffs.

But is there another player in baseball whose success – or lack thereof – presents a direct correlation to his team’s more than Judge?

Scott Thompson highlighted it before (I gave him the stat on Twitter – you’re welcome, Scotty). But in case you’re too lazy to hit those links, here you go…

On June 17, the Yankees had just won their eighth game in a row (for the second time this season). They were 48-16, an insane .750 winning percentage.

The next day, the Yankees won again. 49-16, .754 winning percentage, 122-win pace. That came despite of Judge’s 0-for-5 performance, but the Yankees weren’t able to avoid feeling the wrath of Judge’s struggles for long.

From June 18 to July 15, Judge played in 25 games, and in that span, hit just .179 with a .675 OPS with 17 RBI. In those 25 games, the Yankees were 13-12. Of course, two of those wins came on walk-offs by Judge against the Houston Astros, saving them from what could have been an embarrassing, season-altering four-game sweep at home.

Judge then went 5-for-6 with four RBI against the Boston Red Sox in the final two games before the All-Star break – the Yankees won those games by a combined score of 27-3. They won by three touchdowns and three two-point conversions.

Yes, Matt Carpenter was the star of those games, but when Judge performs, the Yankees perform.

In games where Judge hits a home run, the Yankees are 21-5. In games he doesn’t, they are 40-23. Still very good, but that’s close to a 200-point difference in winning percentage.

When Judge drives in at least one run, they are 27-8. When he drives in at least two, they are 17-1. Games where he has zero RBI? 34-20. Again, still very good, because the Yankees are very good, but it's not even close.

Surely, teams need their best players to perform if they want to go places, but this is hardly anything new, either.

Take a look at last year, when the Yankees had perhaps the biggest rollercoaster of a season there was. Before the Yanks’ 13-game winning streak last season, Judge had an OPS of .886. During that winning streak, his OPS was 1.151. When they ended the year going 14-7, his OPS was 1.007, and he sent them to the postseason with a walk-off single. He and Giancarlo Stanton singlehandedly provided the offense that pushed them to the Wild Card Game.

Even in 2017, when Judge slumped for close to two months, the Yankees went 29-22 while Judge's OPS was .719 and he hit .185. If that season ended on June 12, Judge would have won the Triple Crown, and the Yankees were 36-23. In his final 19 games that year, the Yanks went 14-5 with his OPS being 1.612.

The Yankees go as Judge goes, both good and bad. And that’s the definition of Most Valuable Player.

And if Saturday and Sunday were signs of things to come, we won't even have to argue anymore.