When the Mets inked Luis Severino to a one-year, $13 million deal last December, it was viewed as a risky yet necessary move for a club that was in desperate need of starting pitching. Debuting with the Yankees in 2015, it was clear that talent was never an issue for Severino, who made the All-Star Game in 2017 and 2018 and was an AL Cy Young finalist in 2017.
What made Severino a risk was his health, as a plethora of injuries -- including a rotator cuff strain, a UCL injury requiring Tommy John surgery, and lat and oblique issues -- limited him to just 45 starts over a five-season period from 2019-2023. He posted an ERA of 6.65 in his final season with the Yankees, but the Mets decided to take a risk on the arm talent, hoping those injuries were a thing of the past.
The right-hander rewarded the Mets’ gamble in a huge way, making 31 starts while pitching to a 3.91 ERA. He was also a key piece of the Mets’ playoff rotation, pitching Game 1 of the Wild Card round, Game 2 of the NLDS, and Game 3 of the NLCS, pitching to a 3.24 ERA over 16.2 innings.
So, should the Mets look to bring Severino back in the fold for 2025? Let’s dive in…
Why it could make sense to let Severino go
First of all, it’s important to note that that Severino seems to be a likely candidate to get a qualifying offer from the Mets. This year, the qualifying offer is a one-year deal valued at $21.05 million. Severino will be pitching in his age-31 season next year, and the QO would represent a decent raise from the $13 million he made in 2024.
But in all likelihood, Severino will be looking for a multi-year deal, with Spotrac placing a calculated market value on him of about four years and $56 million, which would be an AAV of $14 million per year.
While Severino was a standout for the Mets this past season, a four-year deal for a 31-year-old pitcher with a lengthy injury history seems like a huge risk. Severino dodged the injury bug in 2024, but it’s hard to ignore his past troubles when considering any contract longer than one year. Plus, Severino doesn’t have the swing-and-miss stuff he used to feature, as evidenced by his 8.0 K/9 over each of the last two seasons after he was in the double-digits in that category during his prime.
Maybe there will be a team or two out there that offers Severino a four-year deal, but it’s hard to see the Mets being willing to go there when they have other needs to fill in the rotation, as well as heralded pitching prospects who could be ready to pitch in the majors in the next year or two.
Why it could make sense to keep Severino
Severino has only pitched for New York teams during his big league career. As we know, a lot of players, no matter how talented, simply aren’t built for the bright lights of the Big Apple. Severino has proven that he is, which makes bringing him back perhaps a safer option than signing an external plater.
Plus, the Mets need multiple starting pitchers, as was the case this time last year. Severino, Sean Manaea, and Jose Quintana are all set to be free agents. Meanwhile, Christian Scott is expected to miss all of the 2025 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery.
That leaves the Mets with Kodai Senga (coming off an injury-riddled season) and David Peterson as their only real locks for the 2025 rotation (perhaps Tylor Megill and Jose Butto could factor in, as could Paul Blackburn, who is arbitration eligible).
David Stearns and the front office know that the Mets need innings, and Severino not only delivered those this past season, but he was also a key presence in the clubhouse.
Verdict
The Mets’ best course of action would be to offer Severino the qualifying offer and hope he accepts. More likely, Severino declines and hits the market. If a team offers Severino four years at around $15 million per season, it would probably be best for the Mets to move on, pick up a draft pick, and look elsewhere for a starter.
But if Severino is willing to go in the two-to-three-year range to stay with a club he’s comfortable with, the Mets would probably welcome him back. And if, say, Manaea were willing to do something similar, the Mets would have a nice foundation of starting pitching heading into 2025.