Ripple effects of Mets signing Trevor May, including what it should mean for Seth Lugo

The Mets signed power reliever Trevor May on Tuesday, as first reported by SNY's Andy Martino, adding an elite arm to the back end of their bullpen for the next two seasons.

In May, the Mets get a 31-year-old who features one of the best fastballs in baseball, struck out 14.6 batters per 9 in 2020, and has been very good (and at times overpowering) since returning from Tommy John surgery during the 2018 season.

Along with Edwin Diaz and perhaps Seth Lugo (much more on him below), May could help form a three-headed monster at the end of games for the Mets.

With May's arrival come questions about Lugo's role, the fate of some of the other relievers already on the 40-man roster, and what the Mets' offseason will look like from here.

Let's dive in...

The Seth Lugo question

While the addition of May theoretically makes it easier for the Mets to use Lugo in the starting rotation -- where they still have two big holes -- that would be the wrong move.

Lugo has proven to be an elite reliever whose value is immense due in part to his ability to often pitch more than one inning per appearance.

In 2020, Lugo had a 6.15 ERA and 1.51 WHIP as a starter while allowing batters to slug .556. In the pen, he had a 2.61 ERA and 0.96 WHIP while allowing batters to slug just .342.

Looking at his career splits since the sample in 2020 is so small, Lugo has a 4.35 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 194.2 IP as a starter and a 2.53 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 188.2 IP in relief.

Is it possible Lugo eventually finds it in the rotation? Sure. And is it easier to slide a pitcher who is already stretched out back to the bullpen as opposed to the other way around? Yep. 

But the Mets would possibly be setting themselves up for failure in 2021 if they relied on Lugo as one of their five starters instead of as part of a potentially dominant back of the bullpen with Diaz and May.

What does this mean for some bubble bullpen arms?

If Lugo is a reliever this coming season, he will be part of a bullpen that includes Diaz, May, Jeurys Familia, and Dellin Betances.

The Mets also recently signed hard-throwing Sam McWilliams to a big league deal, so it's fair to believe he has an inside track at a spot in the bullpen. There's also Brad Brach, who opted in to his deal for 2021.

Assuming the Mets carry eight relievers, that would leave only one spot for a group that includes Jacob Barnes, Miguel Castro, and Robert Gsellman.

Sooner or later, a roster crunch is coming in the 'pen.

Is the bullpen set?

Despite the fact that the Mets' 40-man roster is crowded with relievers, they really could benefit from adding a left-hander who can dominate lefties (though the new three-batter rule and the crossover ability of some of their relievers makes it less important) and perhaps another late-inning arm.

While Diaz rebounded in a big way in 2020 and the Mets should expect more of the same, it's never smart to simply rely on that happening. Nor is it smart to bank on Diaz, Lugo, and May all getting through the season healthy.

The best reliever available -- Liam Hendriks -- is still on the free agent market, as are other intriguing arms such as Keone Kela and lefty Jose Alvarez.

Depending on how things go with the Mets as it pertains to their pursuits of big ticket guys such as George Springer and Trevor Bauer, adding another big name to the bullpen could make sense.

Either way, filling it out further would be wise.