Pros and Cons: Should Mets trade for Tyler Glasnow?

Roughly a month into the offseason, the Mets remain in need of multiple reinforcements for the starting rotation, with them looking to acquire as many as three starters via free agency and/or trade.

That New York has been silent to this point is fine.

The hot stove season began with lots of teams in need of multiple starting pitchers, and only a few of those teams -- including the Cardinals, who signed two back-end starters and inked Sonny Gray to a three-year deal -- have done anything significant as it pertains to adding external players.

As far as the Mets are concerned, Gray wasn't a fit for them -- not with him being attached to a qualifying offer.

One potential fit was Kenta Maeda, who agreed to a two-year deal with the Tigers. But pretty much every other pitcher the Mets should be targeting via free agency or trade remains available.

That includes free agents like Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jordan Montgomery, Shota Imanaga, Lucas Giolito, Luis Severino, Hyun-jin Ryu, Jack Flaherty, and Eric Lauer, and trade targets such as Corbin Burnes, Dylan Cease, and Tyler Glasnow.

And while the Mets seem unlikely to part with any of their most highly thought of near-MLB-ready prospects this offseason (a prudent plan), president of baseball operations David Stearns made it clear earlier this offseason that the team isn't ruling out the idea of trading prospects in the near-term.

"I think where we are as an organization I've been very explicit about this, and certainly Steve (Cohen) has been explicit about this," Stearns said earlier this month at the GM Meetings when asked about the money vs. prospects debate. "We're aiming to get to a place where we can compete consistently at a championship-caliber level for a long time. You generally don't do that by continuously raiding your farm system.

"Does that mean we're never gonna trade prospects? Of course not. Does it mean we're gonna be cautious when we do? Yeah. Does it mean that we're going do it maybe a little bit judiciously, and make sure it's the right moment or the right time for our organization to do that? I think that's probably fair. But we're never going to shut down a conversation."

Burnes is the safest play via trade, having pitched at an ace level from 2020 to 2023 and eclipsed 193 innings each of the last two seasons, but the Brewers might not make him seriously available.

Then there's Cease, who is coming off a down year. But he has terrific stuff, is entering his age-28 season, was a Cy Young runner-up in 2022, and has two years of team control remaining (compared to Burnes' one). All great things. But because of them, the cost to acquire Cease could be relatively astronomical.

As the Mets ponder what the best plan is for addressing their starting pitching deficiencies this offseason, there's one possible trade target who makes sense above the others -- Glasnow.

Here are the pros and cons of trading for him...

PROS

Unlike the situation with Burnes, whose team could hold him until the trade deadline or perhaps all season, it would be a shock if Glasnow isn't traded this offseason.

And unlike the circumstances surrounding Cease, who has two years of control left and is set to earn a shade over $8 million in 2024, Glasnow is a pending free agent who will be making a ton.

For the cost-conscious Rays, paying Glasnow the $25 million he'll earn this coming season seems like a stretch. And that price tag (and another factor we'll discuss in the cons section) should blunt the return Tampa gets if they deal him.

Beyond the cost to acquire him, though, is the fact that Glasnow -- when healthy -- is one of the best pitchers in baseball.

After missing nearly all of the 2022 season and the first chunk of 2023 after having Tommy John surgery, Glasnow returned and pitched very well -- with a 3.53 ERA (2.91 FIP) and 1.08 WHIP to go along with 162 strikeouts in 120 innings this past season.

Glasnow's ability to miss bats -- his strikeout rate in 2023 was 12.2 per nine -- is one of the things that makes him special.

As far as Glasnow's stuff, it remained terrific upon his return. His average fastball velocity was 96.4 mph (almost identical to his career average), and his advanced stats were mostly elite.

CONS

The main issue is health.

Since 2019, when a 25-year-old Glasnow first flashed ace potential with the Rays, he has eclipsed 88 innings just once and never pitched more than 120 innings -- a career-high he achieved in 2023.

While Glasnow's ability is undeniable, his inability to stay on the mound and eat innings is a serious concern.

And with 2024 being Glasnow's second season back after TJS, he'll probably have an innings cap of around 160.

Even though the injury history is a serious red flag, it's possible that Glasnow -- about to enter his age-30 season -- is about to turn a corner in that regard. With TJS in the past and a career-high innings total under his belt, perhaps the injury woes are behind him.

Another issue is the potential cost to acquire him, but it's hard to see the price being truly painful for any acquiring team given Glasnow's past health issues and the $25 million price tag.

VERDICT

If the Mets land Yamamoto in free agency, the need for Glasnow will be lessened. But if they don't, going for him could make lots of sense.

It's unclear what type of package the Rays could be looking for in exchange, but it's safe to say prospects like Luisangel Acuña, Drew Gilbert, and Jett Williams would be off-limits in any potential Mets/Glasnow deal -- as would similar prospects from other interested teams.

Those kind of prospects won't get moved for expensive players with just a year of team control left -- especially those with an injury history like Glasnow.

If a trade for Glasnow comes down to parting with a solid but unspectacular prospect while eating the $25 million owed (and perhaps taking back a less than desirable contract to help facilitate the deal), it could be the type of low-risk, high-reward deal that makes sense for a Mets team looking to contend but perhaps not ready to take a bigger swing.