Mets vs. Padres 2022 Wild Card Series Preview and Prediction

That the Mets find themselves in the Wild Card Series against the San Diego Padres this weekend instead of at home awaiting the start of the NLDS is not ideal, but it could also simply be just the beginning of a long playoff run.

That will be determined starting Friday night at Citi Field, when the Mets play their first playoff game since 2016 in front of what should be a raucous crowd.

And how this Mets season is remembered will come down to what they do in the playoffs, not how they got there.

Their first challenge will be a Padres team that meandered through much of the second half of the season after a ballyhooed trade deadline that brought them Juan Soto, Josh Hader, Josh Bell, and Brandon Drury.

The Padres, whose top of the rotation is very formidable, are a serious threat. But if Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer pitch like themselves, there is quite literally no other top two in baseball that can hold a candle to them.

So while the Mets should be wary of the Padres, they should also be confident in their ability to beat them in the best-of-three series and advance to the NLDS, where they would face the Los Angeles Dodgers.

What the Mets have going for them

With deGrom, the Mets have a pitcher who has been the most dominant in baseball since 2018. And with Scherzer, the Mets have one of the best pitchers of the last decade who would've been in the Cy Young race if not for a strained oblique that cost him a chunk of the season.

Then there's Chris Bassitt, who was one of the most reliable pitchers in baseball this season until -- like deGrom and Scherzer -- he faltered against the Atlanta Braves in the series that cost the Mets the NL East title.

But while people will remember what's freshest in their mind, there's really no reason to believe deGrom, Scherzer, and Bassitt won't deliver against the Padres. And it will be Scherzer getting the ball in Game 1 against the Padres, with the Mets seemingly turning to Bassitt in Game 2 if they can snatch Game 1. 

Offensively, the Mets have a team that relies heavily on Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor, and has generally been contact over power (though their home run output is about league average). That offense was hitting its stride before the final stretch of the season, averaging roughly six runs per game from Sept. 15 through Sept. 28, but then regressed, leaving in question what they'll look like in the postseason.

One X-factor could be Eduardo Escobar, who erupted in September. Others could be Brandon Nimmo and Jeff McNeil, who both finished the regular season on fire and whose on-base ability at the top of the lineup will be very important.

Meanwhile, the Mets are getting a huge shot in the arm with the return of Starling Marte, who made the Wild Card Series roster after being out for roughly a month due to a broken finger. 

There's also 20-year-old Francisco Alvarez, whose power from the right side could be a difference-maker.

The Mets also have Edwin Diaz, the best and most dominant closer in baseball, who should be pretty fresh after not pitching much down the stretch. Joining Diaz in the late innings will be Adam Ottavino, Seth Lugo, and perhaps Drew Smith, whose return from injury a few weeks ago has been a boon to the bullpen.

What the Padres have going for them

The Padres have been better lately than they were right after the trade deadline, but they lost four of five games in the heat of a pennant race from Sept. 28 to Oct. 2 before rebounding and winning a pair of games against the San Francisco Giants to lock up their playoff spot.

But San Diego, featuring Yu Darvish (who will start Game 1 opposite Scherzer), Blake Snell (who will start Game 2), and Joe Musgrove atop their rotation, could match up well against the Mets' aces.

Losing Fernando Tatis Jr. for the season because of a PED suspension put a serious dent into the damage San Diego expected to do offensively, but they still have boppers including Soto, Manny Machado (coming off a terrific regular season), and Drury.

Soto is in the midst of his worst season and has sagged even lower since being acquired by the Padres at the deadline. Still, as the Mets know all too well from Soto's time with the Washington Nationals, he can erupt at any moment and put a team on his back. 

Bell has also struggled as a Padre, and his power has been close to non-existent since August. But he remains dangerous.

The best arm in San Diego's bullpen is Josh Hader, who -- like Soto -- is having a down season. But Hader has been lights out for the last month or so and possesses otherworldly stuff when he's on.

The Mets will win the series if...

Their aces pitch like themselves, the defense remains strong, and the offense resembles the one that has the ability to be terrific situationally, move runners over, work deep at-bats, and come through at a great clip with runners in scoring position.

It should be noted that only four teams in baseball scored more runs than the Mets this season. 

So while New York's offense can be maddening at times -- as has been the case a bit lately -- they have it in them to be machine-like and score the four or five runs it could likely take to win these games.

The Padres will win the series if...

Darvish dominates, Soto wakes up, and the Mets' offense is largely dormant. Even if the Mets' aces are lights out, this series will be a tossup if their offense doesn't wake up. And the Padres certainly have a pitching staff that can give any team fits.

Hader is also a pitcher no team would want to face in the late innings with the game on the line. If he continues to pitch in the playoffs like he did at the end of the season, he could help tilt any series in the Padres' favor.

So regardless of what the Mets' pitchers do, they'll need their offense to come alive a bit if they want to get through the Padres.

Prediction

The Mets went 2-4 against the Padres during the regular season, but you can throw that out the window since deGrom pitched zero games, Scherzer pitched one (and was very good), and the Mets' lineup featured guys like J.D. Davis, Nick Plummer, Patrick Mazeika, and Travis Blankenhorn.

This is a different Mets team and a different Padres team.

Darvish was great against the Mets in two starts this season and could be great again in the playoffs, but it's not like Mets players have been helpless against him over their careers.

Meanwhile, one thing in the Mets' favor could be the Padres' struggles against fastballs at 96 mph or higher -- which is basically where deGrom, Diaz, and Smith live. San Diego has been the worst team in baseball against such pitches this season.

What it comes down to, though, is that the Mets are simply a better team than San Diego. That doesn't mean the Padres aren't extremely dangerous. And it doesn't mean they can't win. But the Mets reached the 100-win mark for just the fourth time in franchise history for a reason. And aside from the Braves series at the end of the season, they have risen to the occasion all year when challenged.

Expect their failure in the Braves series to motivate the Mets against the Padres as they seek to get that taste out of their mouth and march toward a potential World Series title.

Mets in three.