Mets thinking outside the box in Wild Card Series could restore starting pitching advantage in possible NLDS

By winding up as the No. 4 seed and top Wild Card instead of the NL East winner, the Mets have made their path through the playoffs a hell of a lot harder than it would've been had they won the NL East.

The Atlanta Braves will receive the No. 2 seed in the playoffs and a bye to the NLDS, where they'll face either the St. Louis Cardinals or Philadelphia Phillies.

That eliminates the crapshoot of a three-game Wild Card Series, allows them to arrange their starting rotation any way they see fit in advance of the LDS, and avoids the Los Angeles Dodgers until the NLCS (assuming both teams make it).

There is of course the possibility that a team with five days off between the end of the regular season and start of the playoffs could get rusty, but I'm sure quite literally every team would sign up for that possibility instead of landing in the Wild Card Series.

And the Wild Card Series is where the Mets now find themselves, where they'll go up against the San Diego Padres -- with all of the potential three games at Citi Field.

Having home field is one small saving grace for the Mets, as they've gone 53-27 this season in Queens.

Many pointed out on Sunday night following New York's sweep at the hands of the Braves that the Mets will not be able to start either Jacob deGrom or Max Scherzer more than once should they advance to the NLDS. 

However, the above is not entirely accurate.

In a world where the Mets start deGrom and Scherzer in the first two games of the Wild Card Series, it is true that they wouldn't be available to start more than once in the NLDS should the Mets make it -- barring a postponement or two.

But, the Mets also have an option where they could have deGrom or Scherzer available on regular rest for Game 1 and a possible Game 5 of the NLDS.

Let's break down some dates...

- The Wild Card Series begins on Oct. 7 and is played on three consecutive days, with Game 3 (if necessary) on Oct. 9

- The NLDS begins on Oct. 11, with Game 2 on Oct. 12, Game 3 on Oct. 14, Game 4 (if necessary) on Oct. 15, and Game 5 (if necessary) on Oct. 16

- The elimination of a travel day between Game 4 and Game 5 is because the season started late due to the lockout, and could create some pretty crazy travel scenarios

Before getting into the outside-the-box thinking that could help the Mets restore a potential starting pitching advantage should they reach the NLDS (the one they would've had if they won the NL East), one thing should be pointed out...

Because of there being only one scheduled off day in the NLDS, the Mets (and any other team) will be unable to start more than one starting pitcher more than once, unless that pitcher starts on short rest. For example, the Dodgers can't use Julio Urias and Clayton Kershaw twice each, unless short rest is involved.

For the Mets, that means that even if they won the NL East, they would've had to choose between potentially starting deGrom or Scherzer twice and the other one just once in the NLDS (again, unless they started one of them on short rest). One of them would've started Game 1 on Oct. 11 and a possible Game 5 on regular rest on Oct. 16, and the other would've theoretically started Game 2 on Oct. 12 and not been available to start again until the NLCS.

That means any team (the Mets, Braves, Dodgers, etc.) will need four starting pitchers in the NLDS unless one or more of its pitchers goes on short rest or there's a postponement.

Now, here's what the Mets have the option of doing in the Wild Card Series if they want to put themselves in the best possible position should they reach the NLDS...

1. Start deGrom or Scherzer in Game 1 on Oct. 7

2. If the Mets win Game 1, which would mean they're not facing a win-or-go-home scenario, start Chris Bassitt in Game 2 on Oct. 8

3. If the Mets win in two games and advance, they would have either deGrom or Scherzer (whoever didn't start Game 1) available to start Game 1 and (if necessary) Game 5 of the NLDS (that Game 5 start would be on regular rest)

4. If the Mets lose Game 2, turn to deGrom or Scherzer in Game 3 on Oct. 9

Of course, if the Mets lose Game 1 of the Wild Card Series with deGrom or Scherzer on the mound, they'll have to use the other in Game 2 in an effort to stave off elimination.

But in the scenario where the Mets start deGrom or Scherzer in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series, start Bassitt in Game 2, and win it in two games (for this exercise and to make it a bit clearer, let's say Scherzer starts Game 1 of the Wild Card Series), here's how things would shake out for the NLDS against the Dodgers:

Game 1, Oct. 11: DeGrom (extra rest)
Game 2, Oct. 12: Scherzer (regular rest)
Game 3, Oct. 14: Bassitt (extra rest)
Game 4, Oct. 15: TBD
Game 5, Oct. 16: DeGrom (regular rest)

The alternative, if the Mets use Scherzer and deGrom in Games 1 and 2 of the Wild Card Series, would look like this:

Game 1, Oct. 11: Bassitt (if Mets win Wild Card round in two games) or TBD (if Mets win in three games)
Game 2, Oct. 12: Scherzer (regular rest)
Game 3, Oct. 14: DeGrom (extra rest)
Game 4, Oct. 15: TBD (if Bassitt pitches Game 1) or Bassitt (if TBD pitches Game 1)
Game 5, Oct. 16: Bassitt (if he pitches Game 1) or TBD (if TBD pitches Game 1)

Of course, having the Game 2 and Game 3 starters for the Wild Card Series be up in the air until the end of Game 1 is easier said than done -- especially with no scheduled days off during the series.

Pitchers have routines and throwing schedules, especially when it comes to their between-starts bullpen sessions.

But if starting Bassitt in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series is something the Mets can make work should they win Game 1, it seems like an easy call since it could set them up for success in the NLDS -- and give them back the starting pitching advantage they would've had if they secured the NL East title and the bye.

It should also be noted that having deGrom start a potential Game 5 of the NLDS after Scherzer starts Game 2 would give the Mets the option of using Scherzer in relief in Game 5. And that could be a hell of a 1-2 punch in a must-win game in Los Angeles with a trip to the NLCS on the line.