Why Mets shouldn't trade Jeff McNeil this offseason

When the Mets finish their offseason moves, there are a number of ways New York could go.

They could continue to focus on the free agent market, they could look to trade some of their controllable major league players (potentially in an effort to bring starting pitching back in return), and they could consider dangling a prospect not named Francisco Alvarez or Brett Baty as part of a package for an impact player.

The most likely scenario is one where the Mets continue to fortify the roster through free agency while making players like J.D. Davis, Dominic Smith, and Jeff McNeil available via trade. But is now really the time to trade McNeil?

McNeil, 29, is coming off a down season that also happened to be the only down season of his four-year career.

From 2018 -- when he burst onto the scene as a rookie during his age-26 season -- through 2020, McNeil slashed .319/.383/.501 in 248 games, making his first All-Star team in 2019. Along the way, he changed his approach a bit in the second half of 2019 to increase his power and wound up smacking 23 homers overall that season. 

Whether McNeil is the line drive hitter he was in 2018 and much of 2019 or a guy who sells out a bit for more power, he is an incredibly valuable hitter. He's also set to make around $2.5 million in 2022 and is under team control through the 2024 season. 

So why would the Mets think about trading him?

Part of it could do with the beef he had with Francisco Lindor last season that resulted in the infamous rat/raccoon fiasco, and part of it could be his loud and emotional reactions nearly every time he makes an out. But those would be really foolish reasons to trade a really good player.

So unless the Mets think McNeil is the hitter who slashed just .249/.317/.358 last season and not the guy who was a terrific hitter from 2018 to 2020, it's hard to come up with a good reason why he should be dealt -- especially as the team is currently constructed, with second base open for McNeil to fill. 

And if the Mets think McNeil is the hitter who excelled from 2018 to 2020 and that 2021 was an aberration, it's fair to wonder why they would consider trading him when his value is as low as it's ever been -- and when he appears to be poised for a bounce back.

When you take McNeil's career-low .276 BABIP into account while diving into his other advanced numbers (more on that in a bit), it seems he was the benefit of some bad luck in 2021. It should also be noted that Mets hitters were dealing with analytics overload last season, during a year when many of their hitters had unexpected down seasons -- including Michael Conforto.

While McNeil's advanced numbers last season weren't great, some of that had to do with who McNeil has always been as a hitter. And some of it had to do with struggles in very specific situations.

A look at McNeil's walk rate in 2021 (he'll never be a guy who walks a ton) shows that it was in line with his career rate of just under 7.0 percent. Similarly, his strikeout rate of 9.6 percent was just a tick higher than it was during his All-Star season in 2019 (9.2 percent).

Much of what did McNeil in last season was what happened when he put the ball in play, and as is noted above, some of that can be attributed to bad luck. McNeil's hard hit rate in 2021 (28.9 percent) dropped, but not at an alarming rate -- it was 30.9 percent in 2020.

Part of McNeil's down season was also due to how poorly he hit against fastballs (this was a team-wide issue that new hitting coach Eric Chavez will be tasked with fixing), with McNeil slashing a meager .253 with a .349 slugging percentage against them after hitting .354 with a .521 slugging percentage against fastballs in 2020.

And McNeil's struggles against fastballs in 2021 should be easily correctable in 2022, unless you think his bat speed has vanished at the age of 29 (it hasn't).

Meanwhile, McNeil continued to spread the ball to all fields last season while his line drive rate, fly ball rate, and ground ball rate were all around his career norms.

If the Mets are trying to move some players off the roster who might not be great fits in 2022 and beyond, and if they want to attempt to import starting pitching in the potential trades that ship those players out, it makes a lot more sense to dangle Davis and Smith -- two players who (along with McNeil) are available, per SNY's Andy Martino.

That doesn't mean that Davis and/or Smith aren't fits at all. They could potentially combine to be a two-headed DH in the very likely event the National League adds it.

But because of Davis' defensive shortcomings, he can't really be an option in left field (which is filled anyway) and he shouldn't be an option at third base (which will likely be filled by Eduardo Escobar). So Davis is a DH or a bench player most likely if the Mets keep him.

As far as Smith, his natural position is taken by Pete Alonso. And we've already gone over why Alonso should continue to play the field even if the NL adds a DH. So like Davis, Smith's value to the Mets is relatively limited as they're currently built.

McNeil, on the other hand, could slide right in as the regular second baseman. He can also play a solid third base if needed and can handle both corner outfield spots. It should be noted as well that Brandon Nimmo is a free agent after the season, and McNeil could be a fit to replace him as a starting corner outfielder in 2023 in the event Nimmo leaves.

If the Mets sign Kris Bryant (who can play third base, with Escobar sliding to second), could dealing McNeil make sense? Yes, but only if interested teams are willing to send a valuable trade package for him that reflects the hitter McNeil likely is and not the one he was in 2021.

But if the Mets are done adding relatively big offensive players this offseason -- especially on the infield -- it makes all the sense in the world to keep McNeil, give him the second base job, and let him do his thing.