Why Knicks should not trade for Donovan Mitchell

After years of hearsay, murmurs, and Knicks fans dissecting every available social media post, it appears the inevitable is coming. The Utah Jazz are open to trading Donovan Mitchell, and New York is reportedly leading the pack in pursuit.

Is Leon Rose about to secure the first crowning achievement of his tenure, or sacrifice the future for mediocre returns in a soft reboot of the Carmelo Anthony trade?

It’s important to first provide context around the team and Mitchell. The Knicks are currently built to compete for poor postseason seeding or the play-in tournament, with much depending on what Julius Randle they get and the surrounding players’ development. They obviously have much loftier expectations, thus requiring legitimate star talent.

Enter Mitchell, a three-time All-Star heading into his age-26 season. If he's about to enter his true prime, there’s a lot to be excited about.

He’s an explosive scorer, averaging over 25 points per-36 minutes his last four seasons as the primary offensive conduit of a repeat Western Conference contender. A tremendous athlete, Mitchell uses his quick first step and elevation to attack the rim, but has carved out a reliable catch-and-shoot and pull-up jumper from all ranges as well. While he struggled in last season’s playoffs, he averaged 36.3 points and 32.3 points on terrific efficiency in his prior two.

While some question whether he can be the best player on a championship roster, offensively he checks every box. He’s improved his assist rate every year as he’s been increasingly relied on as Utah’s lead initiator. He gets to the free throw line and has been generally durable.

Mitchell’s weaknesses lie on the defensive end, where poor effort and his 6'1" stature can create some ugly moments, especially in the postseason. He’s had flashes and has the tools to be better, between his athleticism and wingspan, so this isn’t a totally lost cause.

How could the Knicks say no to somebody like that?

It begins with the cost of acquiring Mitchell. While we don’t know what the terms of a potential deal will end up being, the framework will almost certainly include five-plus first-round picks and swaps, along with prospects and salary-matching veterans. Even if Rose manages to get the notoriously stubborn Danny Ainge to budge a bit, he’ll be emptying much of the war chest he’s helped accumulate over two seasons.

This front office preached flexibility for years, and this deal will leave them with little. Yes, many of New York’s larger contracts are decreasing over time as the salary cap rises, but they can still end up being liabilities, no longer able to be packaged with picks. Those helpful rotation fillers snatched up later in the draft such as Immanuel Quickley, Quentin Grimes, and Jericho Sims won’t be as readily available.

So what is the plan beyond pairing Mitchell with Jalen Brunson, Mitchell Robinson, and one or both of Randle and RJ Barrett? The team will be capped to this core group and need to make additional deals to move away from it. Maybe just getting that star player is progress enough, and the rest can figure itself out from there.

Not buying it. The Knicks tried this with Anthony, a superior player of similar age acquired at a smaller cost to pair with an already-established All-Star. While it resulted in some fun seasons and a playoff series win, it ended in turmoil, with a bare cupboard and little to show for it.

Even before the Anthony trade went down, his fit with their roster at the time was in question. Those concerns are even more present with Mitchell.

As mentioned, his defense is lacking and trying to maintain an elite one with him and another small guard in the backcourt will prove difficult. Brunson’s no slouch, but having no size on the perimeter (a problem exacerbated by having either Barrett or Grimes at small forward) limits the defensive schemes available to Tom Thibodeau and strains the rest of the lineup, as we saw with Kemba Walker last season. This all gets exposed in the playoffs.

On offense, the Knicks would be adding their clear number one, leaving their current guys having to adjust. Brunson is used to playing off Luka Doncic, and while Barrett’s on-ball development was super enticing last year, ultimately being a secondary option is probably the move for him.

The bigger question is Randle, if he’s not dealt in this package. We haven’t seen him as a second option in three seasons, and much of his profile is holding the ball on the elbow and creating on his own. Can he smoothly transition into more of a screener, shooter, and finisher?

Obi Toppin is the much more natural fit at the four as somebody who doesn’t need the ball and constantly plays with a pace and connectivity that would best unlock Brunson, Mitchell, and Barrett. However he could be the one leaving in this deal.

There are a lot of uncertainties that loom over what we do know, which is that Mitchell is a really good young player, but also not in the class of guys like Jayson Tatum and Doncic. ESPN’s #NBARank labeled him the 18th-best player entering last season, before he took a step back in shooting efficiency and had a poor postseason. Eighteenth is awesome and about right, and also something the Knicks haven’t had since Anthony. But is that what you mortgage your future over?

Obviously, the point of kicking the can down the road, developing prospects and compiling picks is to eventually trade for "the guy," but this could be a case of the Knicks jumping at the first shiny object they see. New York isn’t a lock to make the playoffs, and this trade would not make them surefire contenders for the conference finals. It’s possible the franchise isn’t ready for this type of deal yet.

After the Anthony and Jackson era failures, it took Rose and his front office years just to craft some semblance of positive momentum in the franchise. If this move fails, they’ll be right back at square one.

The alternative? We see what the Knicks really have in Barrett, Toppin, and Quickley this season.

One breakout season out of those names, or a redemption year from Randle, changes the entire equation. Now maybe you can trade for Mitchell or another young star with a smaller deal surrounding one of those players.

This team looks clearly improved and younger from last year. Why mess with that before fully realizing what could be accomplished by continuing to develop and slowly growing the franchise’s asset pile?

It’s possible this goes swimmingly for the Knicks, and Mitchell leads them to places they haven’t been in over a decade, or longer. The other end of the spectrum looks much uglier.

If this is Rose’s one big swing in two-plus years at the helm, we’ll see if it’s the right one.