Knicks Notes: Explaining New York's 2023 NBA Draft pick odds; Julius Randle moving in right direction

Notes on Knicks-Cavaliers and the upcoming 2023 NBA Draft:

Will the Knicks enter the offseason with a first-round pick?

Not likely.

New York owns Dallas’ 2023 first-round pick via the Kristaps Porzingis trade. That pick is protected for picks No. 1 to No. 10.

Dallas lost its final two games intentionally to improve its odds of keeping the pick.

The Mavericks finished with sole possession of the 10^th-worst record in the NBA. Dallas has a 65.9 percent chance of landing the 10^th pick on Lottery night. There is a 19 percent chance the Mavs fall to 11^th and a 1.2 percent chance they move back to 12^th, per Tankathon. The NBA Lottery is on May 16.

If the Mavs fall back to 11^th or 12^th, they will send their pick to the Knicks. If the Mavs end up at 10^th or move up to the top-four, they will keep the pick.

“I don’t worry about that stuff. To me, stay locked into what we’re doing here,” Tom Thibodeau said on Sunday when asked about the Mavs losing games at the end of the season and if he was keeping an eye on the standings. “Every franchise has to do what they think is best for themselves. So, whatever it is, I have a lot of confidence in (team president) Leon (Rose) and our front office. We’ll make the best of whatever is in front of us.”

If the Knicks don’t get Dallas’ first-round pick in 2023, they will acquire Dallas’ first-rounder in either 2024 or 2025. But both of those first-round picks are protected from No. 1 – No. 10.

So if Dallas has a top-10 draft pick in both the 2024 and 2025 drafts, the Knicks will not receive a first-round pick from the Mavs. In this scenario, they would instead receive Dallas’ 2025 second-round pick.

If the Knicks don’t get Dallas’ 2023 first-rounder, they will enter the offseason with no picks in the upcoming draft. The Knicks traded their own 2023 first-round pick to Portland in the Josh Hart deal. That pick was protected for No. 1 – No. 14, so the Blazers will get the Knicks’ 2023 first-rounder.

The Knicks do not have a 2023 second-round pick. It was sent to the Charlotte Hornets in the Kemba Walker trade on the night of the 2022 draft.

So the Knicks would have to trade for a 2023 first or second-round pick – or purchase a 2023 second-rounder – to select a player in the 2023 draft.

Looking ahead, the Knicks are owed a future first-round pick from both the Washington Wizards and Detroit Pistons.

The Washington first-round pick, acquired in a 2022 draft night trade with the Oklahoma City Thunder, is protected for No. 1 to No. 14 in the upcoming draft. So the Wizards will keep their 2023 pick. But they’ll still owe the Knicks a future first-round pick.

The Knicks will get the Wizards’ first-rounder in 2024 if it falls outside of No. 1 – No. 12. If the pick doesn’t convey in 2024, the Knicks get the pick in 2025 if it falls outside of the top 10; if the pick doesn’t convey in 2025, the Knicks get the pick in 2026 if it falls outside of the top eight; if the pick doesn’t convey in 2026, Washington will send New York its second-round picks in 2026 and 2027.

The Detroit first-round pick, also acquired in a 2022 NBA Draft night trade with OKC, is protected for No. 1 to No. 18 in the upcoming draft. So the Pistons will keep their 2023 pick. But they’ll still owe the Knicks a future first-round pick.

The Knicks will get the Pistons’ first-rounder in 2024 if it falls outside of No. 1 to No. 18. If the pick doesn’t convey in 2024, the Knicks get the pick in 2025 if it falls outside of No. 1 – No. 13; if the pick doesn’t convey in 2025, the Knicks get the pick in 2026 if it falls outside No. 1 to No. 11; if the pick doesn’t convey in 2026, the Knicks get the Pistons’ 2027 first-rounder if it falls outside of No. 1 – No. 9. If the first-round pick doesn’t convey in 2027, Detroit will send New York its 2027 second-round pick.

RANDLE MOVING IN RIGHT DIRECTION

Julius Randle wore a walking boot while sitting on the bench with teammates during the Knicks game against Washington on April 2. On Sunday against the Indiana Pacers, Randle was again sitting on the bench but he was not wearing a walking boot. He was walking around during timeouts and breaks in the game. It looked like he had a slight limp, but the fact that Randle is out of a walking boot is a positive development for New York.

Randle suffered a left ankle sprain on March 29. At the time, the Knicks said he would be re-evaluated on April 13. That is two days before Game 1 of their series vs. Cleveland.

CAVS TOUGH IN THE PAINT

Both the Knicks and Cavs defended the paint well in the regular season. Cleveland ranked fourth and the Knicks ranked fifth in opponent shooting percentage on shots fewer than five feet from the rim, per NBA.com.

They allowed opponents to shoot similar percentages on shots between five and nine feet.

The Knicks were markedly better in defending shots between nine and 14 feet from the basket. They ranked first in opponent field goal percentage on those shots; Cleveland ranked 27^th.

It will be interesting to see if paint defense tilts the series. The Knicks attempted the seventh-most shots from nine-to-14 feet in the NBA this season (this is a total, not adjusted for pace). Cleveland was eighth.

Both teams took a similar number of attempts less than five feet from the rim and between nine and 14 feet from the rim.

Thibodeau was asked about the Cavs’ strong rim protection on Sunday.

“You’re gonna be challenged a lot differently in the playoffs. It’s different because you’re playing the same team over and over,” he said. “But we know how good they are and we know the things that we have to do in order to give ourselves a good chance of being successful. So, understand how important it is to attack. You can attack the right way. And I think if we do that, it’ll be positive.”

RJ Barrett is confident that the Knicks have enough variety in their offense to succeed.

“They can’t guard everything. I think we’re a team that like I said has so many different weapons,” Barrett said. “Very confident in us. Can’t guard everything and we’ll figure it out.”

The Knicks finished the regular season tied for the third-highest offensive rating and had the seventh-best net-rating, per NBA.com.