Jacob deGrom defying the laws of aging? Why experts say Mets ace could be baseball's Tom Brady

When Jacob deGrom recently declared his intention to become “an inner-circle Hall of Famer” and pitch into his 40s, he ratcheted up the buzz around him, something that didn’t seem possible since he was already the best pitcher in baseball, seemingly defying the laws of aging by regularly throwing 100 mph at age 32, significantly faster than he did in his 20s.

With all of that in mind, I went looking for some perspective, reaching out to people who could explain how deGrom is doing what he’s doing right now and whether it’s reasonable to think he can achieve the long-term goals he stated publicly in an interview with ESPN.

The surprise for me is that pitching experts insist they aren’t so surprised that deGrom has increased his velocity as he’s gotten into his 30s. And I’ll get to the how and why of that, because it explains why the same experts believe the Mets’ right-hander has an excellent chance of achieving his goals by pitching at a high level for several more years.

In fact, upon hearing about deGrom’s Hall of Fame intent, longtime pitching coach Rick Peterson couldn’t help but connect the dots to a peerless talent in another sport.

“He’s a young Tom Brady,” Peterson said by phone this week, speaking of deGrom. “I really believe Jake is on that path, performing with greatness longer than others. He understands that if he follows the process that has taken him to where he is now, he can stay at that level for a long time.

“He throws 100 miles an hour with an effortless delivery, and the ability to do that without max effort is so important to staying healthy. But he’s also such an artist, a guy who understands pitching, and he has such a good changeup that I believe in six or seven years, if he’s throwing 94-95 instead of 100, he can still be as effective as he is now.”

As someone who coached great pitchers, including Hall-of-Famers Pedro Martinez and Tom Glavine while with the Mets, and studied biomechanics to help analyze deliveries long before analytics ruled the day, Peterson offers something of a professorial viewpoint on deGrom.

For a player perspective I went to Al Leiter, in part because he pitched through arm injuries in his early 20s and still had a 19-year big-league career, pitching effectively at age 38 for the Mets in 2004, and in part because he remains immersed in all things pitching, doing analysis for MLB Network.

Leiter too predicts years of brilliance ahead for deGrom, based partly on the “super loosey-goosey” delivery that makes throwing 100 mph look easy, and he even makes the case that deGrom, who turns 33 in June, somehow could still get better.

“I think there’s more to come with Jake,” Leiter said. “When he gets to a point where the velo drops a little bit to where there’s not much separation between the fastball and slider, and he commits to throwing his curve ball, I think he’ll become an even better pitcher -- I really believe that.

“He’s not throwing his curve ball much now, but it has depth, and the separation from an 81 mph curve ball to a fastball at, say, 95 adds more deception. It might sound crazy but I think that’s next-level stuff for him.”

Finally, I spoke to a current major league pitching coach, who didn’t want to be quoted by name speaking in-depth about another team’s player, but also believes deGrom could push the envelope on the traditional aging curve for power pitchers.

“Let me start by saying it’s very difficult to predict longevity for any pitcher,” the coach said. “Arm injuries come with the territory because pitching is a violent action. You can do everything right and still hurt your arm and the risk factor increases for pitchers as they age.

“But the less violent the delivery, usually the better the chance of longevity, and from that standpoint deGrom’s delivery is about as clean and effortless and athletic as you could ever hope to teach someone. So that puts the odds more in his favor, and the way he’s throwing in his early 30s makes me think it’s realistic to believe he could sustain a level of dominance into his late 30s.

“Personally, I hope he does. There’s nobody I enjoy watching more than deGrom, even when it’s from (the opposing) dugout. He’s pitching at the highest level.”

So, how’s he doing it?

Beyond his God-given talent, deGrom has always demonstrated mental toughness, as reflected in his especially stingy numbers with runners in scoring position, plus an instinctive feel for pitching, as evidenced by his habit of leaning on different pitches on different days, depending how he’s feeling and what he’s seeing in the swings hitters are taking against him.

Perhaps the ultimate example of both was Game 5 of the 2015 NLDS against the Dodgers in Los Angeles. Working without the blow-away fastball that had dominated the same lineup in Game 1, deGrom finessed his way through six innings, often escaping trouble while allowing only two runs, relying heavily on that off-speed curve ball Leiter spoke of to keep hitters off-stride and induce weak contact.

But let’s not ignore the obvious: It’s deGrom’s eye-popping velocity, as he regularly throws triple-digits this season, that is garnering so much attention. According to MLB Statcast, his fastball is averaging 98.9 mph in 2021, compared to the 95.9 he averaged in 2018, when he won the first of his two Cy Young Awards, and also back in 2015.

Speaking of that increase in velocity, a scout told me a few days ago: “It baffles everybody.”

Peterson, however, doesn’t think it’s hard to explain. He believes deGrom isn’t as old, pitching-wise, as his actual age, because he was primarily a shortstop through high school and college at Stetson University and then needed Tommy John surgery a year into his professional career with the Mets.

“He didn’t have any pitching load as an amateur,” Peterson said. “He doesn’t have the wear and tear on his arm that most pitchers his age do.”

The other important factor, as Peterson sees it, is how deGrom has evolved as a pitcher, mentally and physically.

“I remember earlier in his career he was so into talking about his mechanics,” Peterson said. “Now you don’t hear him talk about that. Now you hear him talk about executing pitches.

“Now when he’s on the mound his thoughts are down where the target is, not what he’s doing on the mound, and over time that has freed him up to throw with an effortless motion that he repeats perfectly.

“I compare it to golf. I just watched Stewart Cink win on the PGA Tour last week. He’s 47 years old and he’s hitting the ball 15-to-20 yards farther off the tee than he did when he was younger, because he learned it’s more about rhythm and timing than effort, and when you get into synch like that, you’re swinging with more efficiency.

“It’s the same with pitching. Sandy Koufax used to come down to spring training with the Mets, and he’d tell our pitchers it took him years to learn how to find that efficiency. He’d say he had to ‘learn to take the grunt out of it’ and throw free and easy before he became a great pitcher. I believe that’s what you’re seeing with Jake.”

Leiter largely concurs, speaking from his own experience.

“I remember my hardest recorded throw, as far as I know,” Leiter recalled, “came when I was 32 years old with the Marlins and I struck out Cecil Fielder at 97 mph. I don’t think it’s that unusual. I don’t believe most pitchers really become physically and mentally mature until they’re 27-28-29, and then they have a five-year window when they’re at their peak.

“I’m not underplaying what Jake is doing. Throwing 100 mph as a starting pitcher is something to be in awe of. I’m just saying that other pitchers might be on a similar arc but you don’t notice it because they’re not throwing at such a high velocity.

“Listen, I marvel at it. At that velocity Jake has unbelievable command, and the delivery just flows. That super loosey-goosey fluidity is so important to throwing hard and also avoiding injury. When you’re forcing velocity you’re creating tension in your body, and that’s the last thing you want to do because it can lead to injury.

“It doesn’t guarantee anything. As you get older you’re more susceptible to all types of injuries. I remember dealing with stuff, maybe it’s your back or your legs, and you’re like, ‘where did this come from?’ But everything Jake does gives him a great chance of pitching well for a long time. He’s the best pitcher on the planet.”

So maybe deGrom will follow a Brady-like path – without the championships, at least so far – and pitch into his 40s, as Peterson suggests. If he does that, you’d have to think he’ll reach that Hall of Fame goal rather easily.

“There’s no reason to think it won’t happen,” Peterson said. “If he commits himself the way Brady does, he’ll pitch for a long time. Jake’s younger than his age says he is, I definitely believe that.

“Everybody will be watching. I don’t watch as much baseball as I used to – I watch more golf now. But when Jake is pitching, I put it on my calendar. It’s the same reason I watched Tiger at the Masters all those years. I like watching greatness.”