The first start Daniel Jones made in the NFL turned out to be one of the finest games he’s played. He was dazzling down in Tampa that day, throwing for two touchdowns, running for two more, and energizing a stalled offense.
When he finished the come-from-behind, 32-31 victory, completing 23 of 36 passes for 336 yards and no interceptions, it sure looked like his future was bright.
Two years later, that’s not so clear anymore. And that is a huge problem for the franchise.
“The biggest thing you have to find out is if you have a future with the quarterback – if he’s the right guy for them to rebuild around,” said a former NFL executive. “I don’t know. And the truth is I don’t know if they know.”
Neither, it seems, does anyone else after Jones’ third NFL season was ended earlier this week due to what the Giants are calling a “sprained neck.” Even before that, as SNY spoke with more than a dozen current and former NFL executives and scouts to find out what’s gone wrong with New York football and how to fix it, no one would say for sure that Jones should be the Giants’ quarterback of the future.
They mostly seemed to like his potential and his skills, but were frustrated by his performance. Though to be fair, many were unsure whether any quarterback could have succeeded behind the Giants' offensive line and surrounded by the players (and coaches) Jones has been saddled with the last two years.
“Look at the game plan a few weeks ago against Carolina: You see how many different boots and play action (passes) and move-the-pocket plays they were running?” said ESPN analyst Louis Riddick, a former director of pro personnel in Washington and Philadelphia. “That’s because they knew they can’t have their quarterback sitting back there behind an offensive line that the week before had gotten murdered by the Rams.
“So how do you evaluate your quarterback knowing those are the circumstances in which he has to operate?”
It’s a fair point, echoed by many. But as Riddick added, “Sometimes you’re going to have to make a decision without really having all the information.” That’s what the Giants are facing this offseason, since they have to decide whether to pick up Jones’ $21.3 million option for 2023 by May 3.
And this is what they’re evaluating: Jones, in his three years, has made 37 starts and has a 12-25 record. He’s completed 62.8 percent of his passes for 8,398 yards with just 45 touchdowns and 29 interceptions. He’s shown terrific (and necessary) mobility, rushing 172 times for 1,000 yards and five touchdowns. He’s also fumbled 36 times, though notably 19 of those came as a rookie and he only fumbled seven times in 11 games this year.
So there have been some signs of improvement over the years, but a lot of inconsistency. There are also great flashes, like his spectacular debut game, and again when he threw for 402 yards in an overtime win in New Orleans earlier this season. But notably, that was the only time he topped even 280 yards passing since the last game of his rookie season – a span of 25 games.
A lot of the blame for that was placed on Jason Garrett, the Giants' offensive coordinator for the past two seasons until he was fired in late November. His offense was called “antiquated” by multiple scouts and executives. One current GM said “They wasted two of Jones’ developmental years with that scheme.” Several pointed out that Jones fared much better as a rookie when then-head coach Pat Shurmur was calling the plays.
But even then, there were other concerning issues and a question about whether time and experience would be enough to turn him into the worthy successor to Eli Manning the Giants hoped, and expected, he would be.
“I don’t think he plays fast enough,” said one former NFL general manager. “I think when the game becomes too fast he becomes problematic.”
“He has the skills, the arm, the composure, the intelligence – everything you’d want in a quarterback seems to be there,” said a current NFL scout. “But he’s had three years to put it all together and he hasn’t. You can give him all the excuses in the world – the offense, the line, the lack of playmakers around him. But you still have to wonder if it’s ever going to happen with him.”
Ironically, the same thing was said about Manning at the end of his third NFL season, back in 2006. His numbers at the time were worse than Jones’ numbers – including a completion percentage of just 58.4, 7,874 passing yards, and 42 interceptions. But he had led the Giants to an 11-5 record and a playoff berth in his second season, giving everyone some glimmer of hope.
And, of course, in Year 4 (2007), he led the Giants to one of the greatest Super Bowl upsets of all time.
Manning, though, had a much better cast around him – including a much better offensive line. The line protecting Jones has been a disaster. In fact, he’s been sacked 105 times in 37 starts (Manning was sacked 63 times in 37 starts). And on top of that, Saquon Barkley, who was supposed to be Jones’ best offensive weapon, has missed 21 games with injuries over the last three seasons, including almost all of last year. And this year, when they loaded up on receivers with free agent Kenny Golladay, first-rounder Kadarius Toney, and Sterling Shepard, they all got hurt, too.
“How do you tell anything about him with this mess?” said a former NFL executive. “He’s never been protected and he’s never had good people to play with. Barkley has been hurt the last two years. His receivers keep getting hurt. I was never a fan of (Golladay). He’s a good player, but not a No. 1 receiver. And he can’t stay on the field, either.
“How do you know what he could be on a decent team?”
A better question for the Giants might be: Will they stick with Jones long enough to find out? Because given their lack of salary cap space, it might take some time to fix the rest of their problems. Of course, that lack of cap space and the prospect of a weak quarterback class coming out in the 2022 NFL Draft might also make it impossible for them to move on from Jones any time soon.
With no other viable options, their best move might be to stick with the quarterback they’ve got, even if they’re not sure exactly what he is.
“I’m not sitting here saying he’s going to be a Top 5 quarterback,” said former Jets GM Mike Tannenbaum. “But one of the things you have to say when you make these decisions is ‘OK, if we’re going to move on from Daniel Jones because we’re convinced he’s not the guy,’ my question would be ‘Great. No problem.
‘Who are you going to get?’
“Unless they figure out a way to trade for Russell Wilson without gutting their team, how are they going to find a better option,” said a current GM. “They’re almost stuck. So why not give him one more chance? Maybe it’ll click if they put a better team around him.”
There is one other big concern with Jones, though: His lack of durability, which sticks out even more considering he’s replacing a quarterback who once started 210 consecutive games over 14 seasons. Jones missed two games with a sprained ankle during his rookie season, two more last year with hamstring and ankle injuries. And this year, after missing part of one game with a concussion, he’ll miss the final six with his sprained neck.
“That’s alarming to me,” said a former NFL GM. “Injury problems don’t usually improve with age. Plus he likes to run, which is always dangerous, and he doesn’t seem to know how to protect himself at all.”
The Giants have indicated a willingness to live with that risk in return for Jones’ upside. But they just have to decide if the upside is still high enough.
“I’m probably a little higher than most on Daniel Jones and I don’t think he’s the guy that carries you there,” said Joe Banner, former president of the Eagles and CEO of the Browns. “But I do think he’s good enough to win with. I’m not saying you’re thinking you’ve found a Pro Bowl quarterback. But he’s good enough to win with when surrounded with the right people.”
There are many who agree, and many more who want to see more from Jones before making any absolute judgement. The signs may be there, and the skills may be there, but there isn’t enough evidence to conclusively say he can be the Giants’ franchise quarterback.
And time is running out for them to decide if they believe that’s what he can be.
“What really defines a franchise quarterback is not flashes -- it’s consistency,” Riddick said. “You’ve seen flashes with the guy. We all see it. We see a guy who, last year, deep ball-wise threw some beautiful shots. The intermediate crossers – beautiful. Getting out of the pocket, throwing and moving – beautiful. Quarterback designed runs – he can do all of that.
“He also doesn’t protect the ball in the pocket. He makes head-scratching decisions in crucial situations. It’s that up-and-down stuff that really keeps you from going all in on labelling him a franchise quarterback. And until you can really smooth out those vacillations, you’re not going to get that title put on you. You can’t say ‘OK, we’re set here. We don’t need to worry about this at all.’
“Right now, with Daniel Jones, it’s just ‘Well …’”
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