How Knicks' RJ Barrett can dominate without elite shooting - as the next Jimmy Butler

RJ Barrett is off to a tumultuous start to his sophomore campaign, hitting the second-year slump early but shaking it off in recent games. His averages currently sit at 17.1 points, 7.6 rebounds and 3.4 assists per game on 39.5/21.5/75.3 percent shooting splits.

Though the poor shooting outings can dismay some Knicks fans, especially on top of some of the question marks laid out about Barrett during the draft process, his improvement and consistency in other areas paint a more positive picture. Where some see a lowered floor due to the lack of a potent three-point shot, there is also a heightened ceiling found elsewhere.

Between his collegiate and NBA careers, comparisons for Barrett varied wildly. Mentions of James Harden were aplenty among Barrett’s fiercest defenders and names like DeMar DeRozan and Jalen Rose floated from those less impressed by his resume. In reality, he’s en route to becoming the next Jimmy Butler, and Knicks fans should be extremely excited about that prospect.

Scoring was the biggest selling point on Barrett coming into the league, yet his impact everywhere else is what’s impressed most thus far. Amidst his shaky shooting numbers, his rebounding, defense and playmaking are all improved over last year, when he outpaced expectations in those areas as a rookie.

To start with the boards, Barrett is collecting 10.7 percent of available rebounds on a team featuring Julius Randle and Mitchell Robinson, helping the Knicks come in third in the league in rebounding. This is up two percentage points from 2019-20, and only 15 other players 6-foot-6 or under are cleaning the glass at that rate or better this season.

It is innately valuable to have a wing that helps create extra possessions, close out defensive stops and immediately turn and run the break. Barrett’s transition ability makes this even more helpful to his squad.

Barrett also made strides defensively, something noticeable from just a high-level glance, as he’s leading the fifth-best defensive team in the league in minutes. Digging deeper, the Knicks’ 102.8 points allowed per 100 possessions when RJ is on the floor would sit atop the league, but they drop to 25th when he’s off.

Incoming head coach Tom Thibodeau’s scheme is no easy one to master, and requires a level of IQ and effort few second-year players could successfully bring. It’s no coincidence another young wing - Butler - was able to flourish under the same system and leader. Barrett stays seated, rotates effectively, cuts down on the mistakes he made last year and guards one through four dependably.

RJ’s Knick teammates don’t just depend on him defensively. Barrett improved his playmaking coming into year two as well, and it’s paying dividends. His assist percentage climbed by 2.1 percentage points while his turnover rate declined by 3.5 year-over-year, this despite seven more minutes a night at a similar usage mark.

We won’t see this facet of Barrett’s game at its fullest without first providing him additional spacing and more pick-and-roll opportunities, but even in flashes it looks years ahead of schedule. Against the Celtics on Sunday, Barrett came off the screen towards the right wing and flung a one-handed pass with his off hand to the open weak side corner, an elite read he’s made multiple times this year. He’s also constantly eyeing out and connecting with Robinson on lobs, to the point of leading the team (tied with Elfrid Payton) for most assists per game to the center.

At the end of the day, Barrett will be heavily judged by how efficiently he’ll be able to score the ball, and though his splits don’t inspire, he’s sneakily improved in this area too. His free-throw shooting is up to 75.3%, a transformation from last year’s 61.4% and a pivotal one for such a paint-bound, physical scorer. His shooting from two-point range and at the rim have both ticked up as well, from 43.2% and 56.8% to 46.2% and 60%, respectively. These numbers in spite of Barrett’s slow start out of the gates.

RJ’s pull-up mid-range jumper looks smoother and more consistent when he gets his footing, and he’s adjusted to defenses expecting his straight-line antics, picking his spots better and adding some fakes and floaters into the mix. Once again, it’s hard to even fully grasp his ability here when every drive is into three defenders because Payton, Randle and Robinson just don’t space the floor.

All considered, that’s a great deal of improvement for a second year player, and at face seems tough to square with the narrative of his inconsistent season thus far, but isn’t. Barrett’s three-point shooting is a major dud thus far, and there’s no telling how much better it can get.

But look beyond that, at his improvements everywhere else, the impact on his Knicks in those areas, and the model for Barrett to become an All-Star maintains in becoming New York’s Jimmy Butler.