Christian Scott's Tommy John surgery a blow for Mets, but they have the depth and resources to withstand it

The uncertainty surrounding Scott's injury is now gone, and the Mets are in strong position to manage his absence

9/18/2024, 6:00 PM
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There is never a good time for a pitcher to undergo Tommy John surgery, and for that pitcher's team to deal with the fallout.

But when it comes to Christian Scott and the Mets, the young right-hander undergoing the procedure later this month is far from the worst case scenario.

For Scott, who was attempting to work his way back this season and pitch with a sprained UCL (as plenty of pitchers, including Seth Lugo and Masahiro Tanaka, have done), he now has clarity.

It's not the kind of clarity he wanted, but it's certainly a hell of a lot better than getting to spring training next season and having it happen then -- when TJS could've cost him the better part of two seasons.

Now, Scott's path is clear.

He will undergo Tommy John while also receiving an internal brace, which should allow him to return for the start of the 2026 campaign.

As far as how this impacts the Mets?

The simple and immediate hit is obvious.

Scott emerged in Triple-A this season as one of the best pitching prospects in baseball. After reaching the Mets in May, his stuff overpowered hitters at times, with him showing glimpses of being someone who could eventually pitch near the top of a rotation.

New York Mets starting pitcher Christian Scott (45) pitches in the first inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Citi Field. / Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports
New York Mets starting pitcher Christian Scott (45) pitches in the first inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Citi Field. / Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

Not having Scott in 2025, with the majority of the Mets' big league rotation headed to free agency in a few months, is less than ideal. But it's something the Mets are well-positioned to overcome.

The first thing to look it is the Mets' existing big league depth.

While the futures of Sean Manaea (who will certainly opt out of his contract after the season), Luis Severino (pending free agent), and Jose Quintana (also a pending free agent) are uncertain, the recent performances of David Peterson and -- to a lesser extent -- Tylor Megill, have the Mets' depth in a place it wasn't in back in May when Scott debuted.

At the time, Peterson had yet to throw a big league pitch this season as he recovered from offseason hip surgery.

Now?

Peterson, after an uneven first, has emerged as one of the Mets' most indispensable starters. He has a 2.85 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 110.1 innings over 19 starts, and has taken it up another notch since Aug. 19, pitching seven innings or more in four of six starts.

The left-hander's success and ability to provide length has been enormous, and the team's confidence in him is apparent, lining him up to be one of three starters who will face the Braves in Atlanta next week.

Then there's Megill, whose sample of success is much smaller than Peterson's, but is showing that he's perhaps turned a corner. At the very least, he can be someone who is the Mets' sixth or seventh starter in 2025.

There's also Paul Blackburn. And Jose Butto, who is currently pitching in the bullpen, could be a rotation option next season.

Peterson is arbitration-eligible through 2026, Megill is arbitration-eligible through 2027, Butto is pre-arb, and the Mets have a wave of pitching prospects coming as well.

Mar 15, 2024; Port St. Lucie, Florida, USA; New York Mets pitcher Brandon Sproat (28) warms-up in the sixth inning against the Washington Nationals in the Spring Breakout game at Clover Park. / Jim Rassol - USA TODAY Sports
Mar 15, 2024; Port St. Lucie, Florida, USA; New York Mets pitcher Brandon Sproat (28) warms-up in the sixth inning against the Washington Nationals in the Spring Breakout game at Clover Park. / Jim Rassol - USA TODAY Sports

The one with the most upside could be flamethrowing 23-year-old Brandon Sproat, who has rocketed through three levels of the minors this season and is getting accustomed to Triple-A Syracuse.

Sproat likely won't be in play for the Opening Day roster in 2025, but he should make an impact at some point.

Beyond Sproat are arms like Nolan McLean, Jonathan Santucci, and Jonah Tong.

McLean could reach the majors in 2025, while Santucci and Tong are a bit further away.

Then there's the great equalizer the Mets have, which is the ability to outspend any team for any player they want in free agency.

And while they can blow the market away if they want, they've also recently shown the ability to take smart chances on pitchers who are coming off down years (Severino) or had been showing signs that there was more potential that could be unlocked (Manaea).

That means that whenever they enter this offseason, the Mets will do so with Kodai Senga and David Peterson as locks for the 2025 rotation, with Blackburn, Megill, and Butto also possibilities. And it stands to reason that they'll attempt to re-sign Manaea and/or Severino.

Beyond that, they have the aforementioned prospects who are getting close to contributing.

Whether they make a play for Corbin Burnes in free agency or focus on other starting pitching free agent options remains to be seen. It can be argued that they shouldn't spring for Burnes, especially if a team is crazy enough to give him the eight-year deal he is reportedly seeking.

But no matter how the Mets proceed this offseason, they'll do so while in a position of strength. The Scott news hurts, but they're set up very will to withstand it.

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