Analyzing Mets' potential playoff roster: Locks, position battles, and the big decisions coming

The Mets' ticket to the 2022 MLB playoffs is punched, and it is not yet known whether they'll be entering as the National League East champs or the top Wild Card.

But with just a few weeks left in the regular season, the Mets are going to soon have to start making decisions when it comes to which players will be on their 26-man playoff roster.

Some important nuggets as it pertains to playoff roster rules...

- Any player who was on the Mets' 40-man roster or 60-day IL as of 11:59 p.m. on Aug. 31 is eligible

- Teams are permitted to submit a new 26-man roster before each postseason series

- Teams are allowed to replace an injured player during a series, but if a player is replaced, he is ineligible for the remainder of that series and the entirety of the next one (should his team advance). Additionally, injured pitchers must be replaced by another pitcher, and injured position players must be replaced by another position player

When it comes to how the Mets might shape their postseason roster, let's first start by listing the expected locks (health dependent, of course), with the position players first and then the pitchers:

POSITION PLAYER LOCKS (12)

Pete Alonso, 1B
Jeff McNeil, INF/OF
Francisco Lindor, SS
Eduardo Escobar, INF
Luis Guillorme, INF
Brandon Nimmo, OF
Starling Marte, OF
Mark Canha, OF
Tyler Naquin, OF
Daniel Vogelbach, DH
Tomas Nido, C
James McCann, C

The above list is pretty self-explanatory. The Mets have four infielders capable of playing multiple infield spots, plus Alonso at first base.

They have four guys capable of playing the outfield, and two catchers.

Vogelbach is basically a DH only.

PITCHER LOCKS (8)

Jacob deGrom, RHP
Max Scherzer, RHP
Chris Bassitt, RHP
Edwin Diaz, RHP
Seth Lugo, RHP
Adam Ottavino, RHP
Trevor May, RHP
Mychal Givens, RHP

If the Mets win the NL East, they will almost certainly need a No. 4 starter in that series (if they don't sweep), because of there being just one scheduled day off (more on that below).

Either way (whether they're in the Wild Card Series first or NLDS first), I would expect the Mets to carry four traditional starting pitchers -- with one of them perhaps in the bullpen.

I listed 20 expected locks above, which means the Mets would have six more spots on the playoff roster and a pool of about a dozen players to choose from.

That brings us to our first potential roster battle...

WHO IS THE NO. 4 STARTER?

The logical options to be the No. 4 starter are Carlos Carrasco and Taijuan Walker.

Walker has been strong over his last few starts, but Carrasco has been terrific in the second half, pitching to a 2.36 ERA (3.16 FIP) in 42 innings over eight starts while holding opposing batters to a triple slash of just .245/.298/.365.

Beyond the overall numbers for Walker and Carrasco are the strikeout numbers, and simply the amount of times they miss bats.

Walker has struck out 111 batters in 142 innings this season, a rate of 7.0 per 9 -- the second-lowest of his career and a dip from 8.3 per 9 last season.

Going a bit deeper, Walker's Baseball Savant page shows lots of blue, which is not a good thing. His whiff rate is in the 27th percentile, his strikeout rate is in the 25th percentile, and he has been allowing lots of hard contact, with a hard hit rate in the 21st percentile. His chase rate is a bit above average, in the 54th percentile.

Meanwhile, Carrasco has struck out 143 batters in 141 innings this season, a rate of 9.1 per 9.

Digging deeper into Carrasco's numbers via Baseball Savant, he has a well above average whiff rate in the 71st percentile, his strikeout rate is in the 62nd percentile, and his hard hit rate is a bit below average -- in the 41st percentile. His chase rate is among the best in baseball, in the 96th percentile.

Taking the above into account, it seems likely Carrasco would be the choice over Walker to start. And if Walker isn't viewed as the potential No. 4 starter, it's fair to believe his chances of making the initial postseason roster are slim.

WHO IS THE LEFTY IN THE BULLPEN?

Having a lefty isn't an absolute need, especially if you have guys who can cross over (like Lugo). But it would be very surprising if the Mets didn't carry at least one lefty and perhaps two.

Joely Rodriguez has had an up-and-down season, and someone (ahem, me) said recently that it's hard to envision him on the playoff roster. But Rodriguez has been terrific lately, tossing five perfect innings over his last three appearances while striking out nine. So as of now, you have to figure he's on the roster.

If the Mets carry a second lefty, it will likely come down to David Peterson or the still-recovering Joey Lucchesi. But they might not have room.

WHO ROUNDS OUT THE REST OF BULLPEN?

With the eight pitcher locks listed above, plus Carrasco and Rodriguez, the Mets are up to 10 pitchers on the roster in this projection. For reference, the 2015 Mets carried 11 pitchers and 14 position players on their NLDS roster.

With an extra postseason roster spot in 2022, figure the Mets will go with either 11 pitchers and 15 position players, or 12 pitchers and 14 position players.

As far as the other (non-lefty) arms in the bullpen, Drew Smith (who was one of the Mets' best relievers for the first few months of the season) is about to return, and will be a lock if he performs well down the stretch. Ditto for Tylor Megill, who had a bumpy first appearance in his return from the IL, but who could be both a late-inning option and piggyback option with one of the starting pitchers.

So let's add Smith and Megill to the roster (meaning Tommy Hunter misses out), bringing the total number of pitchers to 12. That would also mean Trevor Williams -- who has a 1.77 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 40.2 innings as a reliever this season -- unfortunately getting squeezed out.

WHO IS THE RIGHTY DH AND PINCH-HITTER?

With 12 pitchers and 12 position players now on the projected roster, that means the Mets have two slots left for two more position players.

As things currently stand, one of them will almost certainly be Darin Ruf or Mark Vientos as either the short end of the DH platoon and pinch-hitting option.

In a world where the Mets use Escobar as their DH most days in order to get Guillorme in the lineup and on the infield, with McNeil shifting to right field, the Ruf/Vientos role will be less important.

Ruf has struggled mightily since being traded to the Mets before the deadline, but Vientos is still very green. So this one could simply come down to who performs better down the stretch.

THE NEED FOR SPEED?

Terrance Gore is basically a pinch-running specialist, but he's an incredibly valuable one who has already wreaked havoc on the bases in his brief time with the Mets.

Gore rarely gets an at-bat or plays the field, but that didn't prevent him from being on the Los Angeles Dodgers' playoff roster in 2020 and the Braves' playoff roster in 2021.

So expect him to crack the Mets' playoff roster, and potentially help them steal a game or two.

WAITING IN THE WINGS

In the event the Mets need an injury replacement or someone isn't performing to expectations, players they could possibly turn to include Brett Baty, Michael Perez, and Dominic Smith.

One interesting name who is also an option is Francisco Alvarez, who could be used as the short end of a DH platoon or a pinch-hitting option. And while it's hard to envision the Mets calling on Alvarez, never say never -- especially if he finishes the minor league season on fire.