A deep dive into the Knicks' shooting woes, which opponents are starting to take advantage of

The Knicks have lost three straight games, two to very beatable opponents, after opening the 2020-21 season a surprising 5-3. There are a number of factors playing into this regression, including a barrage of injuries that have limited head coach Tom Thibodeau’s options and subsequently fatigued the roster’s remaining players.

But the Knicks have another glaring issue to face, one that is only partially aided by a return to health. New York cannot shoot the basketball, and teams have taken notice.

In this early season, a team finished with under 90 points only 13 times -- one marker of a modern, high-scoring NBA. The Knicks make up five of those occasions, including these past three losses, and only one other team has fell short more than once. New York does have scorers, though, and more than enough player and ball movement. They just don’t have shooters.

Take what’s been and sure to be the team’s starting lineup for the foreseeable future: Elfrid Payton, the healthiest of Alec Burks/Reggie Bullock/Austin Rivers, RJ Barrett, Julius Randle and Mitchell Robinson. 

This lineup features just one capable three-point threat, and the next best option from deep is Randle, who is sub-30 percent on his career from long range.

Barrett is 2-of-42 from three outside of his two Bankers Life Fieldhouse eruptions, and Payton and Robinson simply aren’t shooters at all. Kevin Knox and Immanuel Quickley bring some shooting off the bench, but the latter is a rookie and will have his down moments, like going 0-of-6 from three against the Hornets.

All of this has led to the Knicks ranking 29th in the league offensively, despite their weapons. They also rank 29th in percentage of field-goal attempts coming from three and 23rd in three-point percentage. 

What that looks like on the court, night in and night out, is teams packing the paint with four or five defenders whenever a Knick penetrates, knowing New York won’t make them pay, and mucking up their paint dominance.

 Pick out any possession from a game this season, and you’ll see something like this -- one or two Knicks shooters left wide open beyond the arc after the defense closes out the paint.

In prior games, opponents weren’t this flagrant with giving up threes to the Knicks, and guys like Randle or Payton were making due with contested floaters or layups inside. But with tired legs and more pressure on the interior as of late, New York flopped offensively and shot fewer threes -- usually in the low 20s in attempts -- en route to their worst stretch of the early season.

What changed with the Hornets loss was the coaching staff picked up on how this team is being defended and implored them to punish their opponents from three. Barrett and Randle aren’t going to be able to score in the lane effectively without spacing, after all. 

The Knicks got open threes out of these spots, which was great, but their lack of shooters led to a 9-of-37 bricking. For reference, 37 threes attempted was a high for them this season, and 11 teams are averaging 37 or more per game.

Thibodeau and his staff will need to make some adjustments to turn this around. Bodies coming back will help, as well as shaking off the defensive regression to create more transition opportunities. Some rotational changes might be in order as well, with more Knox and Quickley minutes and fewer stretches with the four starting non-shooters on together.

The Knicks should also consider dipping into the free agent market for shooting if they aren’t going to utilize the end of their bench. Why let Dennis Smith Jr. gather dust when Allen Crabbe, Anthony Tolliver or Nik Stauskas could bring something to the table?

It’s still way too early in the season to draw conclusions, and what team the Knicks truly are likely lies somewhere in between their wins against the Jazz and Bucks and their losses to OKC and Charlotte. But in order to stay competitive they’ll have to figure out how to contend with this shooting weakness, because outside of injuries, it’s what’s killing them right now.