Heading into this offseason, the Mets' payroll situation opens up in a significant way where they can have access to “pretty much the entirety of the player universe,” as president of baseball operations David Stearns stated.
Yes, this means a lot of words will be written and spoken about Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Pete Alonso, Tanner Scott and plenty more as options for the Mets. Current payroll projections have the Mets around $70 million shy of the first luxury tax threshold of $241 million and around $110 million shy of the highest luxury tax threshold. The expectation from Stearns is that the team will spend “a good portion” of the approximate $180 million coming off the books.
While any of the above players and others are in play, the Mets are not going to just issue long-term, big money contracts to every top free agent they can get this winter. They want to be involved in free agency on a yearly basis, as Stearns recently explained: "We also have to recognize that we want to set up our organizational pattern so that we can invest in free agency, invest where we think we need to to complement the club on an annual basis.”
When evaluating the Mets' roster, they are going to need to fill multiple spots in the starting rotation and bullpen. They also could use an outfielder or two and potentially a designated hitter. This means acquiring players that are considered value signings in addition to pursuing some of the big stars listed above.
Here are nine under-the-radar free agents the Mets should pursue:
RHP Nick Pivetta
Pivetta is an option who stands out as a potential breakout candidate. Despite posting a pretty average 4.14 ERA in 145.2 innings for the Red Sox in 2024, under the hood had a lot of promising things. That 4.14 ERA came along with a 3.59 expected ERA, implying some bad luck. He also had two things you are looking for: he struck batters out (28.9 percent strikeout rate, which put him in the 88th percentile in MLB) and he greatly improved his walk rate from previous seasons (6.1 percent walk rate, which put him in the 80th percentile in MLB). He possesses a five-pitch mix with a mid-90s four seam fastball that generates upwards of 20 inches of induced vertical break, a sweeper, curve ball, cutter, and gyro slider. Pivetta could be a strong gamble on a two-year deal.
1B Paul Goldschmidt
There is a realistic world where Alonso does not re-sign with the Mets, and I think many are too quickly assuming that if that happens, Mark Vientos would just slide over to first base. Goldschmidt had a down year by nearly every statistical measurement from his career norms. It could be that he turned 37 years old, but one thing that stood out is that he still hits the ball hard. His average exit velocity of 91.2 mph was in the 82nd percentile, his 10.7 percent barrel rate was above average in the 73rd percentile, and his hard-hit percentage of 49.6 percent was elite in the 92nd percentile. He may not be the MVP candidate that he once was, but he could be a one-year veteran option at first base if Alonso departs.
OF Tyler O’Neill
If Soto does not end up in Queens, the Mets are still going to be looking for an outfielder or two this offseason. Current day Starling Marte may be a better fit to take more designated hitter at-bats in 2025 than outfield innings, given his lower body injuries over the last couple of years. O’Neill graded out just below average defensively at -1 outs above average in right field compared to Marte’s -8. He has a similarly strong arm to Marte as well. The 29-year-old had a breakout offensive season in his walk year, posting an .847 OPS with 31 home runs in just 113 games for the Red Sox. He swings hard (90th percentile bat speed) and hits the ball hard (77th percentile average exit velocity, 98th percentile barrel rate and 90th percentile hard hit rate). At his age with the season he had, his contract might end up more in the three-year range.
RHP Shane Bieber
Bieber is a different case than the others on this list because he will likely not be ready to pitch until the second half after undergoing Tommy John surgery this past April.
This situation is not too dissimilar to last year, when Brandon Woodruff was a free agent. Bieber is likely looking at a two-year deal where he can be paid to rehab and a team could potentially get some late season innings in 2025 along with value financially for a perennial front-line starter in 2026.
