4 reasons why Mets should strongly pursue an extension with Noah Syndergaard

With lots of buzz around potential extensions for Michael Conforto and Francisco Lindor, Noah Syndergaard has flown under the radar a bit.

But like Conforto and Lindor, Syndergaard is set for free agency after the 2021 season. And he should be a huge part of the Mets' future.

Speaking to reporters on Monday via Zoom, team president Sandy Alderson brought Syndergaard up unprompted as another player the Mets are interested in extending. 

"Noah's contract expires at the end of the year. And so it would I think be natural for us to at least talk about and explore the possibilities, the options. I expect that we will do that," Alderson said.

Alderson's comments caught some people by surprise, as did the fact that he did not include Marcus Stroman among the names of the players the Mets were considering extending.

But extending Syndergaard is arguably better for the Mets' long-term future than the signing of Trevor Bauer would have been, and is something that makes tons of sense for the Mets to be aggressive on.

Let's examine four of the reasons why...

The Mets have the need and the salary cap flexibility

Things will get tighter if the Mets extend Conforto and/or Lindor, and Alderson said Monday that even Steve Cohen runs out of money. 

But after being careful this offseason to not saddle the team with onerous long-term deals -- which is part of the reason why George Springer is a Toronto Blue Jay -- Alderson and Co. need to get aggressive when it comes to keeping their own high-end talent. And Syndergaard is near the top of the list.

The Mets' rotation situation is solid, with Jacob deGrom under team control through at least 2022 and both Carlos Carrasco and Taijuan Walker under team control through 2023. David Peterson is under team control through 2025.

If all goes well for the above four pitchers when it comes to performance and health, the Mets have four of five spots covered, leaving one open for Syndergaard, whose recovery from Tommy John surgery is going very well and whose upside is second only to that of deGrom.

Syndergaard is somehow underrated

Call this a blessing and a curse, but Syndergaard's stuff is so filthy that some have been surprised that he hasn't missed more bats and hasn't been more dominant.

The above has led to Syndergaard somehow being underrated, even though he was quite simply one of the best pitchers in baseball from his debut in 2015 through 2018, when he had a 2.93 ERA (2.66 FIP) and 1.13 WHIP while striking out 9.9 batters per 9 in 518.1 innings.

Syndergaard struggled a bit in 2019, but his 3.60 FIP was more indicative of his performance that season than his 4.28 ERA. 

When he is right, Syndergaard's high octane fastball and devastating slider are among the best in baseball. And at just 28 years old, there should be plenty left in the tank.

The free agent pitching class after 2021 leaves a lot to be desired

If the Mets are hoping to add a top of the rotation starter via free agency after the season, they're probably going to be disappointed.

The pitchers who stand out are Clayton Kershaw (who will be 34 years old and is already talking about retirement), Max Scherzer (who will be 37 years old) and Justin Verlander (who will be 39 years old).

28-year-old Lance McCullers Jr., who has never pitched more than 128.1 innings in a season, is perhaps the best starting pitcher set to hit free agency after 2021 who will still be close to his prime.

If the Mets are going to spend big for a starting pitcher, it can be argued that the best time to do it is between now and the end of the season by locking up Syndergaard.

In-house top of the rotation help is not close

In Matt Allan and J.T. Ginn, the Mets have two high-upside pitchers who could profile at the top of their rotation.

But the 19-year-old Allan and 21-year-old Ginn are unlikely to debut in the majors before the 2023 season. And even if one or both of them make it to the bigs by 2023, they might not be impact arms until 2024 or after.

The Mets have seen lots of their young pitchers come up and make an immediate impact over the last decade, including deGrom, Syndergaard, Zack Wheeler, and Matt Harvey. But they've been lucky in that regard.

A known quantity is better than an unknown one, and the Mets have already seen Syndergaard do it at the big league level. And he's done it in New York and also thrived on the biggest stage in the playoffs in 2015 and the Wild Card game in 2016.

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Complicating things a bit when it comes to an extension for Syndergaard could be the timing.

Would the Mets be willing to extend Syndergaard based simply on how he looks while rehabbing, or would they need to see him in game action? And if Syndergaard is still on a one-year deal by the time he returns (possibly in June) would he simply bet on himself at that point?

No matter how things shake out, the Mets are right to explore the possibility of an extension with Syndergaard now. And if they can't come to an agreement before the season ends, they should pick things back up at that point.

The dream of a rotation featuring Harvey, deGrom, Syndergaard, and Wheeler leading the Mets to a World Series title is long over. But Syndergaard's Mets story needs to continue beyond 2021.