The Mets considered trading Zack Wheeler prior to this year's July 31 non-waiver trade deadline, as SNY's Andy Martino reported. In the end, the Mets did not make a move, leaving fans to wonder what's next for Wheeler, who is enjoying a long-awaited breakout season.
In his most recent start, Wheeler tossed seven shutout innings against the Nationals, lowering his season ERA to 3.46. As a result, he has the fifth-best ERA (1.09) among National League starting pitchers during August and has not lost a game since June 22.
"I think it's just him getting more and more comfortable with the pitcher he is," according to Mets manager Mickey Callaway, who said when on the mound Wheeler inspires his teammates in the same way as Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard.
In October, the Mets will likely hire a new General Manager, who will be in a similar situation with Wheeler that the current group was in during July.
Here are the most likely scenarios that will be debated by the team's next front office...
Keep Wheeler, sign him to an extension
Wheeler, 28, is earning a bargain $1.9 million this season. He's again eligible for arbitration for 2019, after which he can be a free agent for the first time in his career.
Given the way he's pitching, it's hard to believe Wheeler started this season in the minor leagues. However, that is exactly what happened, because -- leaving Spring Training -- there were still lots and lots of question marks surrounding him, ranging from concerns over his stamina, health and whether he should pitch in relief or the rotation.
Thankfully, here he is, realizing his potential. And, because multiple contending teams recently wanted Wheeler to join their rotation, the Mets should be doing the same...
Teams that had interest in trading for Wheeler all told me they had concerns about his health and stamina since he's made 30 starts in a season just once during his nine-year career.
"He looks like he's arrived, but the lack of a track record makes him more of a risk than he probably should be," an AL team source told me.
There have been zero published reports indicating the Mets and Wheeler have discussed a contract extension. However, the Mets are in a good spot to negotiate, especially if Wheeler remains healthy and completes his first full season since having Tommy John surgery.
He'll be tempted to try and duplicate his 2018 season in 2019 because it will make him an elite starting pitcher during that winter's free agency. On the other hand, if he gambles on his body and loses, he'll be hard-pressed to get offered anything more than a one- or two-year contract.
Therefore, the consensus among MLB insiders is that the Mets would be wise to offer and Wheeler would be wise to accept a new, back-loaded, three-year, $20 million contract with a signing bonus, 2022 option and incentives based on games started or innings pitched.
Trade Wheeler this winter
In return for Wheeler, the Mets were likely being offered a marginal big-league player and no more than two of a team's Top 15-30 prospects. Martino said the Mets wanted at least one top-10 prospect in a deal for Wheeler, which may be why they never agreed to a trade.
The point is, even if Wheeler finishes this season strong, he is not going to bring back a meaningful number of win-now players, especially since he'll be a pending free agent.
That said, if the team's next front office believes they're in need of acquiring a young position player or two, trading Wheeler could be their best way to get it without giving up deGrom or Syndergaard.
Start next year with Wheeler, trade him next summer...
Given how the summer trade market has played out the last few years, Wheeler might actually net more in trade next summer than he would have this past July.
The fact is, if the Mets trade Wheeler this winter, they're going to need to replace him. And, I don't know how they do that for just a one-year, $4-5 million deal, which is what Wheeler is expected to be paid next season. Therefore, if Wheeler is soon traded for prospects, the Mets will need to replace him by signing a new starting pitcher to a contract more expensive than they would have been paying Wheeler.
So, what would I do?
I'd talk with him about a contract extension, but my hunch is that neither side will be able to meet in the middle. He's going to want more than I can commit to, even though I believe he's capable of being every bit of the pitcher he's been in 2019. However, when push comes to shove, I can't help but think he's always one pitch away from another trip on the DL.
Therefore, I'd trade Syndergaard, but only for more than one elite prospect and a top position player who can start in 2019. I'd then give a multiyear deal to Patrick Corbin and ink deGrom to a well-earned contract extension. I'd keep Wheeler, but let other teams know I will deal him next summer if my team is again drifting out of playoff contention.
Matthew Cerrone (Facebook | Twitter | Instagram | Contact) is lead writer of MetsBlog.com, which he created in 2003. He also hosts the MetsBlog Podcast, which you can subscribe to here. His new book, The New York Mets Fans' Bucket List, details 44 things every Mets fan should experience during their lifetime. To check it out, click here!