Too many variables to say what Vladimir Guerrero Jr. contract reveal means for Mets

On first glance, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s comments about his contract negotiations with the Toronto Blue Jays appear to make him highly unlikely as a fit for the Mets in free agency after this season, despite the club’s prior interest in him.

But the reality is that it is simply too early, and there remain too many variables, to draw definitive conclusions about Guerrero’s destination.

ESPN on Thursday published a newsy interview with Guerrero, in which the star first baseman pushed back on speculation that he was seeking a deal in the range of Juan Soto’s 15-year, $765 million pact with the Mets.

Guerrero had set a deadline of the first day of full-squad workouts of spring training for extension talks with the Jays. The sides did not reach an agreement, and Guerrero plans to become a free agent this fall.

"It's much less than Soto," Guerrero told the outlet. "We're talking about many fewer millions than Soto, more than a hundred million less. ... It was the same number of years [as Soto's contract], but it didn't reach [$600 million]. The last number we gave them as a counteroffer didn't reach 600.

"I know the business. I lowered the salary demands a bit, but I also lowered the number of years. ... I'm looking for 14 [years]. I would like 14, 15, even 20 if they give them to me, but doing it the right way."

When the Mets talked to Toronto about a potential Guerrero trade this offseason, it was as a one-year Pete Alonso replacement and potential extension candidate. That is a completely different calculation than signing a second free agent -- and a first baseman at that -- to an extremely long-term deal.

The Mets’ handling of Alonso in free agency, specifically their complete unwillingness to offer a homegrown star and fan favorite more than three years, makes it virtually impossible to imagine them entertaining the notion of signing a first baseman to a deal five times longer, like the one that Guerrero pitched to Toronto.

That logic holds true even knowing that Guerrero is 25 years old and Alonso 30. With Soto signed into his 40s, and facing the possibility of needing to serve as designated hitter for many years, the Mets roster probably cannot withstand a long-term commitment to a slugging, hulking first baseman, whether Guerrero or Alonso.

"He's a great ballplayer," Mets owner Steve Cohen said in February when asked about Guerrero. "I'll worry about that next year. Obviously with payroll considerations -- you really can't have, you can't have too many long-term contracts because then you lose your roster flexibility. So you gotta be really careful. But I'll let my baseball people make that decision."

In addition to Soto, the Mets have shortstop Francisco Lindor signed to a 10-year contract and left fielder Brandon Nimmo to an eight-year contract. No reasonable baseball executive would want to lock up many more roster spots with star players who will become aging star players before long.

But having said all that, there are too many outstanding variables to speak with confidence about how the situation will play out over the next eight months.

Alonso could return to superstar levels of production, inspiring the Mets to reassess their willingness to commit to a long-term deal. Or he could hit 50 home runs, opt out, and cash in elsewhere.

Guerrero could have a down year and find only shorter-term deals on the table, as Alonso did this past winter. He could even have a good year and run up against the current thinking that first basemen are worth less than other positions. If the entire league values Guerrero in that way, as it did Alonso, maybe the Mets would jump in and sign him to a big-money, short-term deal.

See how speculative that all sounds? That’s because it is. For all the interest that Guerrero’s comments generated, they did little to clarify what might actually happen.