When Marcus Stroman accepted the Mets' one-year qualifying offer, New York's starting rotation for the 2021 season came a bit more into focus.
The Mets, with Jacob deGrom, David Peterson, and Stroman, have three pitchers they should be able to count on in next season's rotation. They can also now more easily envision the return of Noah Syndergaard at some point during the season.
More help is needed, though, and that help will almost certainly come from the free agent market, with new team president Sandy Alderson understandably reluctant to part with his most valued prospects unless a trade is too good to pass up.
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The best pitcher on the free agent market, and someone who is head and shoulders above the next tier of options, is Trevor Bauer. And Bauer is a legitimate option for the Mets.
But even if the Mets land Bauer, more rotation help will be needed.
Here are four* second-tier options the Mets could pursue, and an opinion on how serious those potential pursuits should be.
*The original iteration of this article had Charlie Morton as the No. 1 target. With Morton signing with the Braves, here's the updated list...
4. Corey Kluber
The 34-year-old Kluber, who was one of the best pitchers in baseball from 2014 to 2018, has the best credentials of anyone available -- including Bauer. But the last two seasons have been a disaster for him.He was limited to just 35.2 IP and had a 5.80 ERA (4.06 FIP) and 1.65 WHIP for the Cleveland Indians in 2019. With the Texas Rangers in 2020, Kluber tossed just 1.0 inning due to a tear in his right shoulder.
If Kluber gets healthy, he could be a steal for someone. But the Mets can't afford to take that gamble right now.
Verdict: Avoid
3. James Paxton
The 32-year-old Paxton has nasty stuff and was quite effective as recently as 2019, but his 2020 was a mix of injury and ineffectiveness as he had a 6.64 ERA (4.37 FIP) in just 20.1 IP for the Yankees.
Paxton's injury in 2020 was a strained flexor tendon -- something that is often a precursor to Tommy John surgery. But an MRI revealed that he did not need surgery to repair the injury.
This would be a high-risk, high-reward signing.
Verdict: Proceed with caution
2. Masahiro Tanaka
Tanaka doesn't have the upside of Kluber or Paxton, but he has been consistent and remarkably healthy during his seven-year career with the Yankees, showing no ill-effects while pitching with a partially torn UCL.
While he has the ability to toss the occasional gem, Tanaka at this point is more of a mid-rotation innings eater. His success in the New York market is a plus here.
Verdict: Tentatively pursue
1. Jake Odorizzi
Odorizzi, 30, had a breakout year in 2019 with the Minnesota Twins, when he had a 3.51 ERA and 1.20 WHIP while striking out 178 batters in 159 IP.
Odorizzi has been up and down during his seven-year career, including 2015 and 2016 and mediocre seasons in 2017 and 2018. His 2020 season was a wash due to injury, mainly of the freak variety.
There could be a reliable mid-rotation starter here, and he's still on the younger side. Plus, his breakout 2019 came with help from Jeremy Hefner, who is now the Mets' pitching coach.
Verdict: Pursue