Stay or Go: Should Mets re-sign Ryne Stanek?

As the Mets went on their incredible run from 23-33 in June to the NLCS in October, one of the constants for them was change in the bullpen.

President of baseball operations David Stearns says all the time that the bullpen you begin the season with is never the bullpen you end the season with, and that was especially true when it came to the 2024 Mets.

Brooks Raley, Drew Smith, and eventually Dedniel Núñez all went down with season-ending injuries. Jake Diekman and Adrian Houser were released.

Along the way, new internal bullpen arms stepped up (Danny Young), external additions bolstered the group (Ryne Stanek, Phil Maton), and some starters eventually became relievers (Jose Butto, David Peterson, Tylor Megill).

With the Mets having already declined Maton's option for 2025, free agents Raley and Smith recovering from Tommy John surgery, and a reunion with Adam Ottavino seeming unlikely, the bullpen will likely look a lot different in 2025.

Expected to be part of it? Edwin Diaz, Reed Garrett, Nunez, and perhaps Butto. Beyond that, everything is up in the air. That includes the future of Stanek, who is a free agent. Should the Mets bring him back?

WHY IT COULD MAKE SENSE TO LET STANEK GO

Relievers are volatile, and one example of that was how Stanek performed after being acquired from the Mariners at the end of July.

Stanek struggled in 16.1 innings over 17 appearances for the Mets during the regular season, posting a 6.06 ERA (4.39 FIP) and 1.28 WHIP while striking out 23 and walking eight (4.4 per nine).

If you dig deeper into the numbers, you'll see that most of the damage against Stanek was done during his first appearance as a Met (when he allowed three runs to the Braves in just 1.0 inning), in a disastrous outing against the Mariners on Aug. 11 (four runs in 0.1 inning), and during a stretch from Sept. 11 to Sept. 24 when he allowed runs in three of his four appearances.

Allowing runs in six of 17 appearances in the heat of a pennant race is not good, no matter how you slice it.

Stanek also didn't have a great year with the Mariners before being traded, as he posted a 4.38 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 39.0 innings over 46 appearances.

Looking back to 2023, Stanek was decent, with a 4.09 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 50.2 innings over 55 appearances for the Astros, but still not anywhere near the level he was at in 2022, when he was one of the best relievers in baseball.

WHY IT COULD MAKE SENSE TO KEEP STANEK

A switch flipped for Stanek when the postseason started. In his two appearances during the Wild Card Series against the Brewers in Milwaukee, he fired 2.0 perfect innings -- including closing out New York's Game 1 win with Diaz unavailable.

He was similarly strong over his next four appearances (two against the Phillies in the NLDS, two against the Dodgers in the NLCS), allowing just two runs on four hits across 6.0 innings while walking two and striking out seven. That included the Mets' Game 5 win over the Dodgers at Citi Field, when Stanek fired 2.1 innings of one-run ball while surrendering just one hit, walking none, and striking out four.

As evidenced by his strong playoff performance, Stanek's stuff still plays up when he's on.

That stuff includes one of the highest octane fastballs in baseball, with Stanek averaging 97.7 mph on his fastball in 2024. Overall, he was elite when it came to chase rate, whiff percentage, and strikeout rate.

Additionally, Stanek's xBA in 2024 (.210, in the 87th percentile) and his xERA (3.46, in the 71st percentile) suggests he was a bit unlucky and that his ERA was inflated beyond what it should've been.

Stanek will be entering his age-33 season in 2025, and it's fair to believe there's plenty left in the tank.

VERDICT

Combine the Mets' bullpen uncertainty with Stanek's stuff and his ability to pitch in the late innings when he's on, and the decision to attempt to bring him back should be easy.

Stanek signed a one-year deal with the Mariners late last offseason for $4 million, so it's fair to believe the Mets could be able to bring him back on a similar deal -- maybe with a slight raise given his upside.