In the wake of making the postseason in 2015 and 2016, the Mets have gone 147-177, fired their manager, watched the face of their franchise retire, and have taken a gamble by hiring a former agent to lead their revival.

In five months, Brodie Van Wagenen has modernized the organization's front office and staff, has added five former All Stars, stabilized the depth and back end of the roster, and inked Jacob deGrom to a contract extension. At the same time, during the past two years, a shift has been created in the NL East with a large crop of young talent emerging and older players either leaving or switching teams.

The dust has settled and, to the surprise of most New York fans -- myself included -- the Mets are projected to contend for the NL East title. However, so are three other teams...

Here's how things break down in Queens on both sides of the ball, what has to be avoided, what has to go right for them to be successful, and how I expect things to play out...

PITCHING PREVIEW

The health of the starting rotation from April through August will dictate whether or not the Mets are in a playoff fight during the final month of the season. If arms go down, the Mets will go down. If arms stay up, the Mets will stay up in the standings. It has been that way for years and will again be that simple...

The above, plus each of Jacob deGrom, Steven Matz, Noah Syndergaard, Zack Wheeler, and Jason Vargas all remaining healthy through spring training, is why most Mets fans -- myself included -- feel a zing of optimism heading in to Opening Day.

To top it off, Matz and Wheeler each set career-highs in starts and innings in 2018, Vargas (once healthy and in a routine) pitched very well toward the end of last season, and deGrom is coming off of a winter that net him a Cy Young Award and a $137.5 million contract. The group's collective momentum is palpable.

Similarly, their bullpen is projected to be one of the best in baseball.

Last year, Callaway's bullpen combined for a 4.96 ERA, which was the third-worst in baseball. The team wasn't much better the year before, either. However, the days of Hansel Robles, AJ Ramos and Addison Reed have been replaced by Edwin Diaz, Justin Wilson and Jeurys Familia in a set-up role (all three of whom were highly sought-after by other teams this past winter).

My hope is that Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman are left alone and able to pitch an entire season in relief. Because, if allowed to do so, they showed last season they are capable of being an effective, dangerous and unique asset during the middle of a game.

Luis Avilan, Paul Sewald, Tyler Bashlor and a collection of several other arms will get time rounding out the bullpen. Bashlor is my dark horse candidate to step up and fill a regular role in relief before the end of the season.

If there is a concern it's that, for all of the talent and leadership mentioned above, the Mets have very little pitching depth to fill in the gaps. The team used 12 starting pitchers in 2018. Ideally, they use less in 2019, but they're going to have to use more than just five.

In the event Callaway needs another starting pitcher, he's most likely to first turn to Corey Oswalt, followed by any one of Chris Flexen, P.J. Conlon or someone else from Triple-A, including promoting top prospect David Peterson.

Oswalt has the ability to surprise if called on, which he showed last year with his 3.07 ERA during his final four starts of the season.

HITTING PREVIEW

The most common lineup in April is expected to include Robinson Cano, Michael Conforto, Jeff McNeil, Brandon Nimmo, Wilson Ramos, Juan Lagares, Amed Rosario and the rookie Pete Alonso.

For now, the bench will seemingly include Dominic Smith, Luis Guillorme, J.D. Davis and Keon Broxton.

In time, Jed Lowrie (knee pain) and Todd Frazier (oblique strain) will make their way back from the injured list, at which point Van Wagenen and Callaway will need to make difficult decisions about Smith, Alonso and what is and isn't working for them in center field.

To be honest, even without Frazier and Lowrie, I like the above lineup. It's better with Lowrie, obviously, but it is more than capable of surviving without him.

The above eight opening day position players have combined to hit .326 with a .364 OBP during Spring Training. This is a monumental improvement from where the Mets were one year ago, let alone just a few months ago.

The above group also has several compelling storylines worth following throughout the year.

For instance, who will Cano be at 36 years old, returning to New York after leaving the Yankees after the 2013 season? Is Alonso the next great hitter in team history? Is 2019 the year Conforto becomes the MVP-caliber hitter so many believe he can be? Is Rosario ready to join the ranks of young, exciting shortstops? And, will last year's diamond in the rough, McNeil, continue on his path to be next Daniel Murphy?

THINGS GO WELL, IF...

The majority of the rotation stays healthy, specifically deGrom...
Diaz doesn't melt beneath the bright lights of New York...
Conforto plays 150 games and hits 30 home runs...
Ramos remains healthy and bonds with the pitching staff...

THINGS WON'T GO WELL, IF...

Alonso is a total bust and no one steps in to stabilize first base...
More than one of deGrom, Syndergaard, Diaz or Ramos are injured at the same time...
The Mets find themselves in need Yoenis Cespedes at any point...
The Phillies or Nationals catch fire and throw their weight around the division...

PREDICTIONS...

It's required of this assignment, so, what the hell, I'll pick the Mets to win the NL East. I do this not so much because I think the Mets are far and away better than the rest of the division, but because I think they and their three top rivals are each capable of taking the pennant.

To get there, I expect the Mets to exceed their PECOTA projected win total of 87, though I don't think it'll take more than another win or two to snag the division.

Frankly, the more difficult NL East prediction is guessing the team that will finish in fourth place, not first.

The downside to this four-horse race in the NL East is that it's almost impossible to predict how it will end. But that can also be viewed as an upside and is what makes this so exciting. The point is, it's going to be a wild ride.

The next six months promise to be filled with wall-to-wall stress, anxiety, ups, downs, moaning, groaning, cheering and excitement. I expect we'll spend as many days thinking the Mets will win the division as we spend thinking they will fail. I like this. The odds are always against any team running away with the pennant. In most cases, it's a bit of a dog fight. So, if the Mets aren't running away with it, which I don't expect they will, let 2019 be a wild race between four abandoned railroad cars. The crazier the better, which is exactly what I expect it will be...

HARPER: 10 Bold Predictions for 2019 season >> Read More

CERRONE: These three players could swing Mets' 2019 season >> Read More

Matthew Cerrone (Facebook | Twitter | Instagram | Contact) is lead writer of MetsBlog.com, which he created in 2003. He also hosts the MetsBlog Podcast, which you can subscribe to here. His new book, The New York Mets Fans' Bucket List, details 44 things every Mets fan should experience during their lifetime. To check it out, click here!

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