Mets vs. Red Sox: 5 things to watch and series predictions | Sept. 2-4

Here are five things to watch and series predictions as the Mets play the Boston Red Sox in a three-game series at Citi Field beginning Monday night...

Preview

Can Mets carry over momentum from successful road trip?

The Mets return home from a 7-3 road trip knowing they were oh so close to going 9-1 if not for a couple of late-inning bullpen meltdowns in San Diego and Arizona. They outplayed a couple of hot teams, the Padres and Diamondbacks, and then avoided a letdown in sweeping three games from the historically bad Chicago White Sox.

Throw in the series win at home against the Baltimore Orioles two weeks ago and you can make the case that the Mets are playing their best baseball of the season.

But there is no time for taking bows as they continue to be chasers in the NL Wild Card race. And since they have a better record on the road than at home this season, six games at Citi Field this week against the Boston Red Sox and Cincinnati Reds will be another test for their focus and intensity.

Red Sox look vulnerable

The Sox have been something of a surprise wild-card contender this season, with a roster that features Rafael Devers as the only established star in the lineup. But they’re only 17-23 since the All-Star break and they’ve lost seven of their last 10 games, including two of three in Detroit to the Tigers over the weekend. 

The struggle has revolved mostly around their pitching, as their second-half ERA of 5.28 ranks 28th in the majors, ahead of only the Colorado Rockies and the Chicago White Sox. 

And though they’ve been a good offensive team this season, ranking eighth in the majors in runs scored and fifth in batting average and OPS, they haven’t hit much lately. In those last seven losses, they’ve scored only 13 runs. 

Is Diaz fixed?

Edwin Diaz gave up two game-losing home runs on the trip, one in San Diego and one in Arizona, but he bounced back with two dominant saves and pitched with the confidence of the 2022 Diaz, blowing Diamondbacks hitters away with his fastball, then attacking White Sox hitters with the heater as a set-up to putting them away with his slider. 

So, is he fixed?

Diaz said a pre-game bullpen session the day after his blown save in Arizona helped get his mechanics straightened out, eliminating the arm-side wildness with his fastball while putting more bite in his slider again, and the results offered reason to believe. 

Still, it has been such an up-and-down season for Diaz that his every outing, at least for the moment, no doubt causes anxiety among Mets fans. Especially since this team desperately needs him to be a lock-down closer the rest of the way to make the postseason.

How long is the leash for Alvarez?

Over the weekend manager Carlos Mendoza reiterated that Francisco Alvarez is the No. 1 catcher, despite his prolonged second-half slump, but Luis Torrens is such a weapon with his throwing that it’s fair to wonder if things could change as the Mets play important games in September. 

Alvarez is hitting only .150 since the All-Star break with two home runs, repeatedly chasing breaking stuff off the plate, And while the Mets were hoping his walk-off home run against the Orioles two weeks ago would ignite his bat, he is just 3-for-32 since then. 

Torrens, meanwhile, hasn’t hit much either, just .209 in the second half, but he has thrown out 12-of-20 base-stealers, a crazy-high percentage, and nailed Luis Robert Jr. in the seventh inning on Sunday to help preserve what was a 1-0 lead at the time. 

It’s well-documented that pitchers love Alvarez for his energy and intensity behind the plate, but he hasn’t had nearly the same success throwing out base-stealers, at 11-for-57. 

What if Lindor has a big September?

Francisco Lindor has put himself into the MVP conversation, but he’ll likely have to be at his best in September to have a shot at overtaking Shohei Ohtani, who is on pace to become the first 50-50 player in history, as the Los Angeles Dodgers superstar currently has 44 home runs and 43 steals.

The Mets’ shortstop furthered his case on Sunday in Chicago, taking Garrett Crochet deep for a home run after the All-Star lefty had retired the first nine hitters he faced, striking out seven of them. The HR was crucial for the Mets, giving Sean Manaea a lead to work with until the Mets finally added another run in the ninth.

Lindor is having a huge second half and during this current 9-4 stretch against the Orioles, Padres, Diamondbacks, and White Sox, he has a .992 OPS that includes six doubles and four home runs. 

Predictions

Who will be the MVP of the series?

Jesse Winker

New York's hottest hitter should be in the lineup for all three games, as the Red Sox are starting three right-handers. Winker is hitting .333 since coming over at the trade deadline. He went 8-for-11 in a three-game stretch before an 0-for-2 Sunday. 

Which Mets’ pitcher will have the best start?

David Peterson

It's hard to bet against Peterson right now. He’s raised his level dramatically, pitching like an ace with a 1.86 ERA over his last six starts. 

Which Red Sox player will be a thorn in the Mets’ side?

Rafael Devers

The three-time All-Star has always been a thorn in the Yankees’ side, so maybe he just loves the New York stage. We’ll see. He’s having a big year, with a .919 OPS.