Mets Minor League Mailbag: Will Francisco Alvarez be called up this season?

@AureMoraRu: Why wasn’t Carlos Cortes added to the 40-man-roster? Is he getting traded once the lockout ends?

Joe: Cortes had a strong year in Double-A Binghamton where he had 41 extra base hits, including 14 home runs. He packs some punch and good barrel rates into his 5-foot-7 frame. However, when Cortes was drafted out of South Carolina, he was a versatile, ambidextrous thrower who played both second base and the outfield.

In 2021, the Mets played Cortes exclusively in the outfield and reviews were not overly strong on his defense. With the Mets moving into a position to contend right now at the big league level, each 40-man-roster spot is very valuable. There had to be a line drawn as far as the number of prospects they could protect. Top five prospects in the system, Ronny Mauricio and Mark Vientos, were obvious additions and the organization did not want to risk losing potential valuable upper minors starting pitching depth in Adam Oller and José Butto.

Cortes will be eligible for the Rule 5 Draft (if there is one post-lockout) and if a team were to select him they would have to carry him on their big league roster for the entire season or offer him back to the Mets. The Mets made a calculated risk that a player with limited defensive versatility and a good, but not game-changing bat would sneak through and be able to remain with the organization. As far as being traded, nothing can be ruled out, but I don’t believe leaving him unprotected is any indication of that.

Jacob: I don’t think the fact that Cortes was left off the 40-man roster is a sign that the organization prefers to trade him, rather it just came down to spots. As Joe said, Mauricio and Vientos were locks, while pitchers like Oller and Butto are easier for a team to carry on its roster as low-leverage relievers.

The Mets like Cortes and view him as a potential contributor, perhaps as soon as some point this summer. He’s shown a plus-hit tool and above-average power throughout his minor league career, but his ability to put both together (they trended in opposite directions last season) will ultimately decide his offensive ceiling.

On a slightly unrelated note, Cortes is going to benefit from the state of the labor negotiations. Since he wasn’t added to the 40-man roster, he will be eligible to play in the minor leagues when those games are scheduled to begin in April. Mauricio, Vientos, Oller, and Butto (in addition to Khalil Lee, Nick Plummer, and Thomas Szapucki) will not be allowed to play for an affiliate until an agreement is reached, which has the possibility of adversely affecting their development.

@jonatha01439360: Outside of the top guys who do you think will make the biggest leap this year?

Joe: I am going to go with two pitchers, one who made my top 10 prospects and one who was outside of my top 20. My 9th ranked prospect is right-handed pitcher Calvin Ziegler, who was the Mets second round pick in 2021. I believe, in addition to the normal scouting process, the new analytics team played a role in this selection. Ziegler has a fastball up to 97 mph with spin rate and 100 percent spin efficiency. He is an athlete on the mound with developing secondary pitches that have good metrics and command, but all the pieces are there for a future big-league starter. I would imagine he spends most, if not the whole season in Low-A St. Lucie and will have the opportunity to rise in my rankings for 2023.

My second one would be 2021 eighth round pick Mike Vasil who recently discussed his draft process with SNY’s John Harper. As a high school senior, Vasil pulled himself out of the 2019 MLB Draft where he was ranked as a top 25 prospect in the class by MLB Pipeline to fulfill his commitment to Virginia. While playing in Charlottesville, coaches had Vasil change into more of a sinker baller which caused a velocity dip and inconsistent performance.

After being drafted and signing for $181,000, he reported to the team facility and the Mets made some mechanical adjustments and switched his sinker back to a four seam fastball and he carved up Complex League hitters in a small sample size. His velocity was up to 97 mph. There are people in the game that believe the Mets may end up having a steal in Vasil. It stands to reason he should begin the year in High-A Brooklyn with the opportunity to move through the system quicker than your typical eighth round pick.

Jacob: I’ll second Joe’s pick of Vasil and group him in with the rest of the Mets’ 2021 draft class. The organization has excelled at hitting on their top draft picks over the past decade-plus, but we’re starting to see better results from their Day Two and Three picks, whether that’s a fast riser like Tylor Megill or trade chips like Kevin Smith and Matt Dyer.

In addition to Vasil, we should see 2021 third-round pick Dominic Hamel in Brooklyn this season. Prospect rankings that emphasize analytics have prioritized Hamel’s fastball shape and curveball spin rate over younger, more risky pitchers like Ziegler. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Hamel in the Double-A rotation by the end of 2022.

There are a slew of other 2021 draftees that can take a leap with increased game reps this year, like pitchers Christian Scott, Levi David, and Keyshawn Askew, and infielders JT Schwartz, Kevin Kendall, and Justin Guerrera. This is a huge class as far as building depth in the organization goes.

@pseudo_dennis: Do you think Francisco Alvarez has a legit chance of making the bigs this season?

Joe: First off, let me say I absolutely loved seeing Alvarez state that his goal is to make the major leagues this year. If you are a prospect that will be in the upper minors and that isn’t your goal, that is an entirely different issue.

With that said, I don’t think there is a very real chance it will happen this year. We have touted Alvarez’s bat, and the tools are there for a legitimate middle-of-the-order type of threat. I do think we often forget that Alvarez will be spending this entire season at only 20-years-old. He will be getting his first taste of the upper minors as I imagine he will start the year with Double-A Binghamton.

Will there be an adjustment offensively for him with his first taste of Double-A? History suggests that is often the case. For example, Vientos had a huge year in Double-A in 2021, but his first month of May was an adjustment where he had a .689 OPS.

Where Alvarez needs the most growth is on the defensive side of the ball. He has good pop times and an above average throwing arm, but he needs development in blocking balls in the dirt and receiving, especially on the glove side.

I haven’t spoken to anyone who doubts Alvarez’s ability to stick behind the plate, he is just young and needs further development there. There is also no rush as James McCann has three years (including this year) remaining on his deal. Lets allow Alvarez get as much development time as he needs, and I think it is possible we are talking about Alvarez making his big league debut sometime in 2023.

Jacob: Fully agree with Joe here. While it’s great to see Álvarez’s ambition on display, there’s a near-zero chance that he sees the majors this year even if he destroys the upper minors.

For context, no catcher has played in the majors in their age-20 season since 2004. You have to go back even further, to Hall-of-Famer Ivan Rodriguez in 1992, to find the last time a catcher had more than a week’s worth of playing time at that age. It just doesn’t happen.

Álvarez doesn’t have to be added to the 40-man roster until next November, so in all likelihood he’ll get his first taste of the majors next summer.