Mets need these 5 things to happen in second half to win NL East

The Mets rode an incredibly hot start to the second-best first half record in team history, behind only the 1986 club, putting themselves in tremendous position to reach the playoffs for the first time since 2016.

And while the Mets are set up well to make it to the postseason, they have their work cut out for them when it comes to holding off the Atlanta Braves for the National League East title.

If the Mets are able to win the East and finish with one of the two best records among the NL division winners, they will receive a bye for the Wild Card round of the playoffs and advance directly to the NLDS.

Here's what needs to happen for the Mets to win the East...

Reinforcements arrive at at trade deadline

While the Mets were historically good in the first half, they also overcame some glaring shortcomings.

Some of those issues (like the hitters who were splitting DH duties) were evident for most of the first half, while others (like the bullpen) got more glaring as June turned to July.

When it comes to the DH spot, it's been clear for a while that entrusting it to Dominic Smith (who has not hit a home run in a year) and J.D. Davis (whose power is lacking and has way too much swing-and-miss in his game) is untenable. And it will be a huge surprise, and failure, if the Mets don't swing a trade to add someone -- Josh Bell and Trey Mancini are two strong options -- who can take the bulk of the DH at-bats.

The Mets also have a serious need in the bullpen, where it's pretty much been the Edwin Diaz show while the rest of the 'pen has been held together by tape and glue.

Chief among the Mets' concerns right now is Drew Smith's regression after a strong first month and change, and Seth Lugo's unreliability in the late innings. New York has some other arms who have been quite good, including Adam Ottavino and Colin Holderman, but they'll need to add one or two back end relievers via trade before the deadline to fortify things.

Catcher is another need, but with so few options on the trade market, it might be a tough one for the Mets to upgrade.

Jacob deGrom returns and is himself

After missing the first half of the season due to a shoulder injury following a lost second half of the 2021 season because of an elbow injury, deGrom is on the cusp of returning.

DeGrom has looked like himself during his rehab starts, reaching triple digits with his fastball and breaking off his dastardly slider. But it remains to be seen how he'll look when he returns to the majors and how durable he'll be. And his latest rehab outing was pushed back two guys because of "general soreness."

I think calling deGrom injury-prone at this point is unfair and a reach, given the fact that from 2014 to 2020 he was pretty much the picture of health. At the same time, he'll have to prove that what has happened to him over the last 12 months was an aberration, and not the new normal.

If deGrom pitches like himself and stays healthy, the Mets -- after not getting a single pitch from deGrom in the first half and dealing with the absence of Max Scherzer for six weeks -- will finally have their vaunted 1-2 atop the rotation.

And with that 1-2, the Mets would be awfully hard to beat.

Offense has to pick it up

Using a contact-heavy approach, making productive outs, and hitting at a great clip with runners in scoring position, the Mets' offense was clicking on all cylinders through the middle of June, scoring seven runs or more 17 times through play on June 10.

Over their last 33 games, though, the Mets have averaged only 3.9 runs per game (they averaged 4.4 runs per game in April and 5.8 runs per game in May).

Part of the Mets' offensive downturn has to do with the level of competition. They faced the Houston Astros four times, Miami Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara three times, and had three games against the Braves' tough pitching staff during their recent cold snap.

But one of the major things that has been plaguing the Mets is the lack of productivity they've gotten from the DH, with that spot in the lineup and the spot where the catcher hits being black holes of sorts.

The Mets, who have continued to get strong production from key lineup cogs including Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, Starling Marte, Jeff McNeil, and Brandon Nimmo, can expect things to turn in their favor soon -- especially if they fix the DH situation.

Mets must take advantage of late-season schedule

The Mets' schedule the rest of the way is no walk in the park. But it softens starting on July 29, following series against the San Diego Padres and Yankees.

New York has some tough games in August, including a five-game series at home against the Braves and a four-game series in Atlanta, but August will also include series against the Nats and Rockies, and seven games against a Philadelphia Phillies team that should still be without Bryce Harper.

But September and early October is where the Mets should be able to make some serious noise, with a slate that will feature 24 games against the Nats, Pittsburgh Pirates, Marlins, Chicago Cubs, and Oakland Athletics.

The Mets were supposed to end the regular season with three games against the Braves in Atlanta, but because of the delayed start to the season following the lockout, they're now set to finish with three games against the Nats at Citi Field.

Braves need to cool off

The Mets' lead in the NL East didn't shrink because of anything they did wrong. Rather, it was the Braves going on an absolute heater -- including a 14-game winning streak -- that led to the division being a close battle entering the second half.

And while the Braves are a very good team with a deep, dangerous lineup and a very good pitching staff, they did much of their damage over the last month and a half against the dregs of the league.

From May 27 through the end of the first half, the Braves played 28 games against teams whose season is all but over, including 10 against the Washington Nationals, and series against the Arizona Diamondbacks, Colorado Rockies, Cincinnati Reds, Pirates, A's, and Cubs.

The above doesn't mean the Braves should be expected to start losing in bunches any time soon, but their schedule gets noticeably tougher the rest of the way, and will include 38 road games to just 30 at home (the Mets have 31 road games left and 38 at home).