Mets 2024 MLB season preview and prediction, including playoff fate

The 2024 season will be the start of something new and exciting for the Mets, with the club going in a different direction after a few years where they tried to accelerate things while turning to free agency and giving older aces short-term deals that broke average annual value records.

Gone are Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, the co-aces who were supposed to help lead the 2023 Mets to heights above what the 101-win 2022 club -- anchored late in the season by Scherzer and Jacob deGrom -- accomplished.

Of course, the 2023 club was so disappointing that it led to a trade deadline sell-off where New York replenished the farm system and ushered in a symbolic and literal changing of the guard. 

Along with Scherzer and Verlander, deGrom is also gone. And those three pitchers will all begin the 2024 season on the injured list, which is a reminder of how dangerous it is to build a rotation -- and your team's hopes -- around older starting pitchers, no matter how good they are when healthy.

As far as the Mets who are here, there is no getting around that the team -- on paper -- is not as talented as the 2022 version. They're also not as talented as the 2023 version, but we all saw how that team turned out.

Throwing a bunch of really good players together mainly via free agency and paying them a ton of money for a couple of years can certainly work, but it doesn't always lead to success.

So the Mets, under new president of baseball operations David Stearns, are taking a different and more methodical approach, with the ultimate goal still being to build a sustainable winner that is selectively aggressive in free agency -- not overly reliant on it. 

With the exception of their pursuit of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the Mets did not make a serious run at any of the biggest free agents this offseason, choosing instead to pass on what was a pretty weak top of the class. And they did not seriously enter the fray for the stars who were traded -- a list that included Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, and Dylan Cease.

Instead, the Mets were patient and unmoved by the most expensive (in terms of dollars or prospect capital) shiny objects, keeping their still-strong core of MLB position players intact and refusing to deal any of their most valued prospects.

Their moves in free agency were short-term and for relatively low average annual values. But while most of the players added didn't create much buzz -- until the late signing of J.D. Martinez -- there's a chance that the whole will be greater than the sum of its parts.

But whether the team the Mets assembled will be a serious playoff contender remains to be seen. That's what the season is for, and here's our preview and prediction...

What the Mets have going for them

There is no longer a star-studded rotation, but the Mets still have a strong core -- including some of the best players in baseball at their respective positions. Before we get to the rotation, let's discuss the rest of the roster...

The offense has some big question marks -- specifically the health of Starling Marte and whether Brett Baty can be average or better big league hitter -- but they also have:

- Francisco Lindor, who was the ninth-most valuable player in baseball in 2023, via fWAR
- Pete Alonso, who has hit more home runs than any player in baseball since debuting in 2019
- Brandon Nimmo, who has been one of the most valuable outfielders in the sport since 2018 and has a career OPS+ of 130
- Francisco Alvarez, who smacked 25 homers as a rookie and has a chance to be one of the best catchers in baseball
- J.D. Martinez, a legitimate DH masher who had an .893 OPS last season and should provide serious protection for Alonso
- Jeff McNeil, who won the batting title in 2022
- A returning Edwin Diaz, who is the most dominant closer in baseball

It is impossible to look at the above players and come to the conclusion that the Mets are rebuilding -- because they're not. What they are doing is retooling on the fly with a core that should enable them to compete for a playoff spot, while still giving plenty of playing time to younger players.

The bullpen lacks a shutdown guy beyond Diaz, but has some arms who should profile in the late innings, including Brooks Raley and Adam Ottavino. And if the Mets hit on just one of the low-risk, high-reward relievers they took a shot on this offseason (Jorge Lopez is one of them), it could change the dynamic.

As far as the rotation, its depth will be tested early with Kodai Senga expected to be out until some point in May. But while none of the starters will jump off the page at you, all of them except Tylor Megill have been average or better performers over the course of their careers. And Luis Severino has legitimate top-of-the-rotation upside.

Meanwhile, even though none of the Mets' prospects will make an impact on Opening Day, no discussion about the 2024 team is complete without them.

Of the Mets' most high-impact prospects, there's a chance about a half dozen of them debut this season. 

That includes position players Drew Gilbert, Luisangel Acuña, and Jett Williams, and starting pitchers Christian Scott, Mike Vasil, and Dom Hamel. Reliever Nate Lavender should also debut this season.

The Mets will make the playoffs if...

They stay relatively healthy, the stars perform to expectations, and the kids step up.

People like to point to the underperformance of many of the Mets in 2023 as a reason for their downfall (and there was plenty of underperformance), but they were also decimated by injuries, losing Diaz for the season and Verlander and Scherzer for part of it, with Marte playing hurt all year, and Alonso playing through an injury early on after being hit by a pitch.

Good health usually leads to good things, and with the exception of Senga, the Mets enter Opening Day with their entire expected 26-man roster intact.

We've discussed how the rotation doesn't have star power, but it does have strong depth -- and should have enough of it to weather some injury and underperformance -- but not a ton of it.

As far as a need for success from the "kids" who are referenced above, it means Baty and Alvarez as much as it means guys like Gilbert, Acuña, and Scott producing once they get their chance.

The Mets will miss the playoffs if...

Injuries hit the offensive core, the rotation underwhelms, and the bullpen falters.

The meat of the offense is very strong, but if the Mets suffer a significant injury to one or two of them -- combined with the question marks elsewhere and the regular presence of the light-hitting Harrison Bader -- it could make for a tough climb.

And while the rotation should have a high floor, there's always a chance that some of the worst possible outcomes happen -- something like an injury-riddled campaign for Severino mixed with Manaea's late-season success in 2023 not translating.

When it comes to the bullpen, we've seen over and over how volatile any club's relief corps can be from year to year. The Mets need a handful of the guys behind Diaz to be reliable and/or for one or two lower-profile relievers to surprise. If not, they could be in trouble.

Final record and playoff prediction

86-76
Third place in NL East
Third Wild Card spot

People who pick the Mets to make the playoffs this season will be called crazy by some, but it really isn't crazy. The Mets have a solid roster -- one that many projection systems view as a borderline playoff team.

And while many will focus on the seeming impossibility of the Mets overtaking the Braves this season and unlikelihood of them leapfrogging the Phillies, the fact of the matter is that they don't have to do either of those things in 2024.

All the Mets have to do to reach the postseason is nab one of three Wild Card spots, and I think they will.

Once they do, they'll beat the NL Central champion Cardinals in the Wild Card Series before falling to the NL East champion Braves in the NLDS.