Is Knicks' offense a concern as they hope for deep playoff run?

At 42-28 and in fourth place in the Eastern Conference, the Knicks are floating around the imaginary line that separates contender and pretender.

Ranked seventh in defensive efficiency, the Knicks have a defense worthy of contender status, but on the other side of the ball, the offense has not been as crisp. New York ranks 13th in offensive efficiency this season, scoring 116.2 points per 100 possessions.

The offense will be a central plot point to a Knicks playoff run. The scoring numbers seem good enough, but they are propped up by offensive rebounding. New York leads the NBA in offensive rebound rate, snatching up 33.3 percent of available misses.

When it comes to shot-making, the Knicks are not in the upper echelon of the NBA. New York is 20th in effective field goal percentage (53.4 percent) and 20th in true shooting percentage (56.9 percent).

The offensive glass has come to define this era of Knicks basketball. New York has finished in the top-six in offensive rebound rate each of the last three seasons. In last year’s playoff run, it was the X-factor to the team’s success. New York had 75 offensive rebounds in a 4-1 first round series win against the Cleveland Cavaliers.

It’s clear that offensive rebounding does help win games. In Saturday's  105-93 win against the Nets, New York had 16 offensive rebounds. Even though the Nets shot better from the field and free-throw line, the Knicks had 21 more field goal attempts.

In the last five years, only one NBA champion finished in the top 10 in offensive rebound rate during the regular season, the 2019-20 Los Angeles Lakers. The Miami Heat made the NBA Finals last year despite finishing 25th in offense during the regular season.

But for the most part, teams with efficient offenses and balance advance deeper in the playoffs. Contenders such as the Boston Celtics, Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets all rank in the top 10 in true shooting and effective field goal percentage this season

Finding the right mix

Knicks head coach Tom Thibodeau deserves credit for modernizing New York’s shot profile. The Knicks are ninth in three-point attempts per 100 possessions. They generate a healthy amount of corner three-pointers and shoot 40.2 percent on those shots, per NBA Stats, good for 10th in the league. 

Finishing at the rim has been a problem. According to NBA Stats, New York is just 26th in field goal percentage in the restricted area.

Individually, All-Star Jalen Brunson has been efficient as a number one scoring option and role players Donte DiVincenzo and Miles McBride have experienced career years from behind the three-point line, but much of the roster fails to provide adequate spacing around Brunson.

The Knicks are constantly in a grind and playing in a crowd on offense. There have been times where limited outside threats Josh Hart, Precious Achiuwa and Isaiah Hartenstein have been together on the floor at the same time. Even if Julius Randle returns soon from a shoulder injury, it doesn’t resolve the spacing concerns.

In the postseason, opponents are going to dare players like Randle, Hart, and Achiuwa to shoot from outside. A big factor in all of these potential situations is OG Anunoby, who is currently out due to injury management on his surgically repaired left elbow.

The Knicks are 15-2 when Anunoby is on the floor. When they went 12-2 in January with Anunoby, the Knicks were ninth in offensive efficiency with better shooting numbers. A great defender, Anunoby also solves many issues on offense. He’s an effective floor spacer, cutter and finisher.

But even if the Knicks reach full health, the offense will be a concern. Thibodeau will have to make tough lineup decisions as he juggles floor spacing and defense. 

It’s possible the Knicks’ great defense can outweigh its weaker offense, but it makes New York’s path to contention even more arduous.