5 things to watch as Mets take on Astros in three-game set at Minute Maid Park

Here are five things to watch as the Mets and Houston Astros play a three-game series at Minute Maid Park starting on Monday night...

1. Verlander’s return to Houston

On Tuesday night, Justin Verlander is scheduled to make his return to the mound where he spent the past five and a half years of his big-league career.

Just seconds ahead of the 2017 MLB trade deadline, Houston acquired Verlander from the Detroit Tigers in exchange for a trio of prospects. He was that missing piece that helped put them over the top that year dominating in the postseason, taking home the ALCS MVP, and leading the Stros to a World Series. He finished the playoffs with a 4-1 record and posted a 2.21 ERA and 38 strikeouts over 36 innings.

And, of course, they went on to win again in 2022, defeating the Philadelphia Phillies.

Verlander finished his Astros career with a 61-19 record over 102 starts and a dominant 2.26 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, and 825 strikeouts. He was named to the All-Star team three times and took home his second and third AL Cy Young awards.

He threw his third career no-hitter in an Astros uniform, blanking the Blue Jays on September 1, 2019. He battled back from Tommy John surgery in 2021, and was absolutely dominant last season, winning the Cy Young at 39 years old.

So far in his Mets career, we’ve seen that ace form at times, but it’s been a bit of a shaky start.

After battling an injury early on, Verlander has posted a 4.40 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and 39 strikeouts through eight starts. He’s coming off a strong outing against the Yankees in which he allowed just one run on three hits while striking out six over six innings. 

In 60 career starts at Minute Maid, Verlander has a 2.41 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, and 489 strikeouts. He’ll look to keep that going on Tuesday, except this time as an opposing player.

2. Can Scherzer turn things around?

I think any Mets fans would be lying if they said they weren’t concerned about the past two outings for Max Scherzer.

In big games against the Braves and Yankees, the future Hall of Famer has thrown just a combined nine innings. He’s allowed 11 runs on 18 hits, three of which were homers while striking out 12.

In both starts, Scherzer was seemingly cruising early on, and then imploded and blew the lead in one bad inning. It was the sixth against the Braves, allowing four runs, and then the fourth against the Yankees (five runs).

Simply, Scherzer has not been good of late.

Fans are souring on the 38-year-old, as he now has a 4.45 ERA and 1.23 WHIP through 11 starts this season. Scherzer’s been allowing homers at an alarmingly high rate (1.6 HR/9), issuing more walks (5.9 percent walk rate), and isn’t generating as many strikeouts (9.5 K/9).

Across eight career starts against the Astros, Scherzer is 4-1 with a 3.27 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. He’ll look to get back on track as he opens this three-game series against them on Monday night.

3. No Yordan for the Stros

Perhaps one of the biggest factors in this series, in the Mets’ favor, is the fact that they won’t have to deal with Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez.

Alvarez has been on the injured list for about a week now, dealing with right oblique discomfort. He is first eligible to return to the team on Monday, but Houston has already said he’ll need more time.

It’s sounding more and more like the slugger is at least a few weeks away from returning to any sort of baseball activities.

In his absence, the Astros have been filtering in different players at the DH spot. Corey Julks has been solid, hitting .273 with a homer over his last seven games, but it’s nowhere near the type of production they were getting from Alvarez.

Alvarez had his sights set on taking home the AL MVP this season.

Through 57 games, he’s hitting .277 with a .388 OBP, .978 OPS, 12 doubles, 17 home runs, and 55 RBI. He currently ranks in the 97th percentile in both hard-hit percentage and barrel percentage.

While you never want to see anyone injured, the Mets are certainly thankful they don’t have to deal with his big bat in the middle of Houston’s lineup this series.

4. Abreu’s heating up

With Alvarez out of the lineup, Jose Abreu has finally been stepping up for the Astros lineup. After a brutal start to the season in his first year in Houston, the slugging first baseman is finally starting to turn things around.

Over the first two months of the season, he hit a combined .207 with just one homer, seven doubles, and 20 RBI. He also struck out 51 times while posting just a .258 slugging percentage and a .534 OPS.

Abreu has been turning it on since. Through 16 games in June, he’s hitting .277 with a .304 OBP and .781 OPS. He already has four doubles and three homers to go along with 13 RBI.

All three of those homers have come over his last seven games and he has a 1.108 OPS in that span.

The Mets are going to have to keep him contained during this three-game set.

5. Pete's back

The Mets activated Pete Alonso from the injured list prior to Sunday afternoon's series finale against the St. Louis Cardinals. 

Alonso, who was expected to miss 3-4 weeks after being hit on the wrist by a 97mph Charlie Morton fastball, returned after missing just 10 days with a bone bruise and a sprain of the left wrist.

He went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts in his return to the lineup, but most importantly, Buck Showalter said postgame that Alonso felt good afterward. 

Alonso is having a tremendous season at the plate with 22 home runs and 49 RBI. He was especially productive in his last 20 games, prior to the injury, blasting nine homers with 18 RBI and a .940 OPS.

He'll look to get going again during this three-game set.