5 things Mets must do to make postseason leap in 2023

Mets won 101 games in 2022, but some key missing elements hurt them down the stretch and in October

10/23/2022, 2:00 PM
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The Mets won 101 games during the 2022 season, which was the second-most in the history of the franchise. And while they have a slew of key players about to hit the free agent market, they'll be returning a large chunk of their core from that 101-win team.

So to say the Mets need to take a leap when it comes to win total would be wrong. Rather, they need to assemble a team that's better equipped to finish the deal down the stretch and go deep into the postseason.

Since they faded down the stretch in 2022 while failing to take advantage of a cupcake schedule that should've helped them easily hold off the Atlanta Braves in the NL East, and were then no-shows in two of three games in the Wild Card Series against the San Diego Padres, it's clear there were a handful of key elements missing.

What was missing reared its head in their three-game sweep at the hands of the Braves in the division-deciding series that bridged the end of September and beginning of October.

And the Mets were exposed again in the playoffs against the Padres.

Before we dig deeper, let's be clear about one thing:

The playoffs are a crapshoot. It often doesn't matter how good you are, how well-positioned your starting rotation is, or who you're playing. If you have a few bad games, your season will be over quickly.

In the case of the Mets, they trotted out a version of Max Scherzer who was either compromised health-wise, working through a delivery issue, or both in Game 1 against San Diego. If he was himself, perhaps the Mets win that series and go on a long run. But he wasn't, and they didn't.

New York Mets starting pitcher Max Scherzer (21) pitches against the Philadelphia Phillies. / Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
New York Mets starting pitcher Max Scherzer (21) pitches against the Philadelphia Phillies. / Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

It also appeared that the moment was at times too big for the Mets during that momentous series in Atlanta and in the playoffs against the Padres. And they were only in that position (first desperately trying to stave off Atlanta, and then forced into the Wild Card Series instead of having a bye to the NLDS) because of their failures against bad teams throughout September.

Part of what did the Mets in was their hot-and-cold offense, which was outscored by only four teams during the regular season but sputtered at times due to reasons we'll delve into shortly.

They were also hoping Scherzer and Jacob deGrom would carry them down the stretch and through October, but instead got versions of Scherzer and deGrom that were not close to their best when the Mets needed them most.

What the Mets need to do now is evaluate what went wrong, have that color their offseason moves, and put themselves in position to close out the season strong in 2023 -- and have a team that is built to withstand the heat that comes with the postseason.

Here are five ways they can do that...

Add more punch to the offense

The Mets were in the middle of the pack in 2022 when it came to homers, and they didn't have enough power to help carry them in games where their contact-heavy offense wasn't clicking.

Part of the issue was Mark Canha hitting just 13 homers. Eduardo Escobar's cold start also didn't help, as he had just six homers over the first three months of the season and didn't hit a single long ball in August. Escobar came on strong in September, but his shortcomings earlier in the season contributed to the Mets not pulling away in the division.

The Mets also got next to nothing from their catching due of Tomas Nido and James McCann, with McCann's performance (he slashed .195/.257/.282) particularly alarming.

James McCann / Wendell Cruz - USA TODAY Sports
James McCann / Wendell Cruz - USA TODAY Sports

Another huge issue was the DH situation, which was a mess until they acquired Daniel Vogelbach a few weeks before the trade deadline. But while Vogelbach did a solid job as the long end of the platoon, Darin Ruf (acquired to be the righty end of that platoon) performed poorly.

To address the above deficiencies, the Mets should assemble a roster where they can rely on Escobar and Canha less in 2023, find a reliable DH who can hit both lefties and righties (Jose Abreu comes to mind), make a quick decision on their catching situation (more on that below), and add a dynamic offensive player to the mix.

Don't abandon having a dominant 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation

Speaking during the team's end-of-season news conference, GM Billy Eppler suggested that the Mets would continue to build their team with an emphasis on having multiple high-upside pitchers at the top of the rotation. This is the right plan.

While the deGrom and Scherzer plan didn't work out as the Mets hoped in 2022, having multiple high-upside starting pitchers is huge come playoff time. For examples of that, take a look at the four teams that made it to the 2022 LCS -- the Houston Astros (with Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez), Philadelphia Phillies (with Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola), San Diego Padres (with Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, and Blake Snell), and Yankees (with Gerrit Cole, Luis Severino, and Nestor Cortes).

What complicates things for the Mets is that deGrom is set to hit free agency. If they bring him back, they'll have their 1-2 in place. If deGrom leaves, the Mets will have to set their sights elsewhere.

Oct 19, 2022; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Justin Verlander (35) reacts after striking out Houston Astros second baseman Jose Altuve (not pictured) to end the sixth inning in game one of the ALCS for the 2022 MLB Playoffs at Minute Maid Park. / Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 19, 2022; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Justin Verlander (35) reacts after striking out Houston Astros second baseman Jose Altuve (not pictured) to end the sixth inning in game one of the ALCS for the 2022 MLB Playoffs at Minute Maid Park. / Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

The free agent market won't be flush with ace-level pitchers, but Verlander and Carlos Rodon will be there. As far as a potential trade, Shohei Ohtani could be available.

Whatever the Mets do, they'll have to make sure there is a second ace-level pitcher to pair with Scherzer.

For those who will point to how Scherzer's season ended, I'll point to the fact that he had the lowest ERA of his career in 2022. And I'm willing to wager that if he gets a chance in the postseason in 2023, he won't disappoint.

Let Francisco Alvarez cook

Not to pile on Nido (who did his best when thrust into a bigger role than anticipated) and McCann, but the Mets' lineup often had a black hole in it in 2022 because of how poorly their catchers were offensively. Being below average is one thing, but what the Mets got from their catchers was far worse.

And the above was compounded by the lack of production from the DH spot.

Sometimes, teams with championship aspirations can get by with a defense-first catcher who doesn't provide much at the plate. But having a catcher who can be average or better sure is a big help.

Francisco Alvarez / Brad Penner - USA TODAY Sports
Francisco Alvarez / Brad Penner - USA TODAY Sports

In Alvarez, the Mets have a catcher who can not only be average offensively but help anchor their lineup. He might not be a difference-maker out of the gate in 2023, but he certainly has game-changing power and all the confidence in the world for someone who is 20 years old.

If I'm the Mets, I go into Spring Training with the plan of having Alvarez be the Opening Day catcher. That will give him roughly six weeks to work with the pitching staff in preparation of leading them, and allow him to seamlessly transition into the role when the regular season starts.

Have a greater sense of urgency

As the Mets were rolling toward what they hoped would be an NL East title this season, the belief was that they would properly address their deficiencies at the trade deadline. They didn't.

Yes, the Vogelbach move worked out for the most part. But the Mets did not do nearly enough to shore up an offense that was in need of serious reinforcements. They also didn't adequately address the bullpen.

Eppler said after the season that he had "no regrets" with how things played out, and some of his points are valid. One, there weren't many impact players moved at the deadline. Two, the prices were at times exorbitant. But it was his job to work through those issues and find solutions. He didn't.

Billy Eppler speaking to the media during Mets end of season news conference on Oct. 14, 2022. / SNY
Billy Eppler speaking to the media during Mets end of season news conference on Oct. 14, 2022. / SNY

If the Mets are again in prime position next summer and have obvious deficiencies, the hope here is that they'll be more aggressive when it comes to filling them. And that doesn't mean trading your best prospects. It means using other pieces to fill the necessary holes on your roster.

It should also be noted that manager Buck Showalter, who did a mostly terrific job in 2022, did not manage with enough urgency down the stretch. Part of that revolved around his bullpen usage, and part of it was how he adjusted (or didn't adjust) his lineup in close-and-late situations. Hopefully he'll be more aggressive going forward.

Learn from their season-ending experience

Teams always look bad and listless when they're struggling to score, or when their starting pitchers are giving up leads or putting them in early holes.

But against the Braves during that last series in Atlanta and in Game 1 and 3 against the Padres in the playoffs, the Mets at times looked like they were overwhelmed by the situation they were in.

And to hear some of them speak after each game as they were getting overmatched by the Braves was to hear guys who seemingly didn't know what hit them -- or how to react.

In Game 3 against the Padres, with their season on the line, the Mets were so bad offensively that their futility was historic.

What should hearten the Mets and their fans is that this was the first time this group went through a heated pennant race and made the playoffs. Sometimes, teams need to learn what it's like and get humbled before being able to conquer those moments.

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