2021 Mets ZiPS projections see bounce-back season for Pete Alonso, dominant starting rotation

If ZiPS projections – assembled annually by FanGraph’s Dan Szymborski – are to be trusted, the Mets could be primed for a big year as a team, and Pete Alonso could return to his 2019 form.

FanGraph’s projections show Alonso, who hit just .231 with 61 strikeouts during the shortened 2020 season, returning to the dominant power hitter he was in 2019, blasting 41 home runs with 110 RBI to go along with a .246/.339/.524 slash line.

ZiPS projections also see a big year ahead for Jeff McNeil, who could figure to finally have an everyday home at second base following Robinson Cano’s suspension. Though his projected .297 batting average would be a dip from his .311 average in 2020, his projected .320 BABIP and 3.6 WAR would put him among the best hitters on the team, with only Michael Conforto having a higher projected WAR of 3.9 among position players.

On the pitching front, FanGraphs sees a potentially great Mets rotation headlined by Jacob deGrom and Marcus Stroman. It should be noted, though, that ZiPS projects a combined 44 starts from Noah Syndergaard and Seth Lugo, which seems like a bit of a reach considering Syndergaard will likely miss time as he recovers from Tommy John surgery and Lugo will likely find himself back in the bullpen.

But with deGrom (5.3), Syndergaard (2.5) and Stroman (2.1) all having pitching WARs over 2.0, and David Peterson (1.9) and Lugo (1.9) not far behind, the Mets could have one of the best rotations in baseball.

Combine those numbers with a potentially big year from Edwin Diaz on the back end (projected 2.70 ERA, 2.67 FIP and 114 strikeouts in 66.7 innings), and the pitching staff could be set up for success.

Of course, it’s all just projections at this point, but with plenty of excitement already around the team this offseason, the Mets could be in for a fun 2021 season.